Sunshine Coast Racing Tips for Saturday, July 1st

We continue our coverage of the Queensland Winter carnival with the nine-race card at the Sunshine Coast this weekend, featuring the Group 3 Sunshine Coast Guineas. The track is currently rated a Soft 5 but I'd expect it to be upgraded to a Good 4 given the fine weather predicted.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below!

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Sunshine Coast Racing Tips for Saturday, 1st of July

Race 1

No shortage of speed in this one! Of the nine runners, probably five can go forward and either lead or sit outside the leader, so tactics will play a key role. I'd like to see INVINCIBLE EXPRESS take a sit today from barrier 6 and if they do I think she can win this at a good price to get us started. She copped a squeeze at the start last time out and her race was over from there, but if you look to her form previous to that it's quite strong for a race in this grade. Got a great record at both the track and the distance, stays at 54kg and I think she can bounce back at $4.60. I've got no knock on BADAJOZ who comes into this after two runner-up finishes to start the prep. Has never missed a place when third up from a spell and you'd think Sydney form would be strong enough to win this. Interesting to see if they go forward or back from barrier 8 of 9. I do think SUNDANCE can also bounce back after a relatively disappointing first up performance at Ipswich, but Jeff Lloyd said he didn't handle the Soft 7 that day. Back onto firmer ground here, has a great record at the distance and has won his only start at the track. Keep safe. SIR DONALD has started his prep with two wins, this is harder but he can feature. The value in the race at big odds is ANOTHER WHISKEY. He wasn't to bad first up but he's never won first up from six starts. He has, however, finished in the top two at three of his five starts when second up, and he's got three wins and a 2nd from four starts at the track. Happy to take on SONY LEGEND at this distance. Backing Invincible Express and Another Whiskey but don't let Sundance go around without something on.

TIP: Invincible Express / Another Whiskey EW

Race 2

Really ordinary race and one that I'm not desperate to get involved in. Ended up with BLACKJACK BELLA on top. She finally broke through at the Gold Coast last start after four consecutive placings, has placed in four of her six runs at the distance and has finished in the top two at both starts at this track. She's been outside the leader at her past two starts so from barrier 10 I'd expect them to slide forward. STEAMIN' has the blinkers off after failing as favourite at Ipswich last start. Will box seat from barrier 3 and drops 1kg so has every right to win this but one placing from six starts at the distance doesn't fill me with much confidence. COURAGEOUS ROCK is only having his fourth start of the campaign and has placed in his past two starts. Definitely a winnable race for him but he hasn't won in a long time. The value I think could be DONTPOKETHETIGER. She finished last and was beaten over 7 lengths last start but she overraced, raced three-wide without cover in a five horse field, and it was on a Heavy track. She will get conditions to suit here and she placed in Group 3 company in New Zealand at this distance. Third up from a spell, minimum weight, I'll be backing her at $15.

TIP: Blackjack Bella / Dontpokethetiger EW

Race 3

Another race that's not particularly inspiring but I am keen on one at double figure odds here. I think BOLD PEAK can run a good race for us at $21.  His past two starts have been pretty poor but they've been over 1200m and 1300m and I think he gets back to his best distance of 1400m here. His record at this track is very good, as is his record at this distance, and he's undefeated over the 1600m at the Sunshine Coast. Draws barrier 1 here so he should be right up on the speed and at that price I'll be having something on each way. The other I think can run a good race at odds is RED SCARLET who comes into this third up from a spell after two runs over 1200m. Has won three of his four races over the 1400m so the step up in distance is what he needs. He's at $12. Something each way on both of those in an average race.

TIP: Bold Peak EW / Red Scarlet EW

Race 4

Really keen on a couple here. The first is DYNASTIC who absolutely bolted in on debut at the Gold Coast, winning by 4.3L. Draws barrier 1 here so can box seat or probably lead, drops to 54.5kg and looks awfully hard to beat. Can go on with it and $4.80 is a good price. Hardest to beat is probably ACCEPTILE who has never missed a place in it career. Resumed with a 2nd at Ipswich but it was a big run after covering plenty of ground throughout the race. Might have to do so again from barrier 12 but it should be in the finish. The value in the race could be ILOVEVEGAS for the Ben Currie stable who are red-hot at the moment. This horse resumed with a massive win at Toowoomba and although the time was about 3 seconds slower than Dynastic's win at the Gold Coast, I wouldn't be discounting it at $12.

TIP: Dynastic

Race 5

Absolute lottery of a race and the market is betting 150% which doesn't help. I think RAJA AMPAT gets her chance here after finishing 3rd behind With A Promise and Tiyatrolani at Ipswich last start. If either of those were in this field they'd be odds on. Before that she won easily over 1000m at this track, which took her record to one win and three placings from five starts at the track. From the draw she should be able to drift back to midfield or worse and I'd expect the tempo to be pretty hot in this big field. She should get her chance and we're getting a good price about her at $9. SECRET MO draws to get the run of the race and has a great record at this track so expect him to go close here. BOLD GYPSY is undefeated from three starts at the distance so should be included at $21. CLOCKWORK ORANGE bolted in at her first Queensland start, Lloyd sticks with her and the only concern is barrier 18. Even worse drawn is PRIORITISE in barrier 20 but he looks a talented and progressive type. His last win was good and if he has any luck from the barrier he can go close.

TIP: Raja Ampat EW

Race 6

Hard to separate those at the top of the market but I'm going to stick with SELF SENSE who we took at $10 last start when it ended up starting $3.60 and bolted in by close to 7 lengths in the Ipswich Cup. We know he will run the trip strong as he's won over the 2400m before and that's a big tick for me. Only goes up 2kg in weight and should be able to get a good run in midfield. I expect the hardest to beat to be SUPPLY AND DEMAND but my big concern is the jump from 2000m to 2400m for the first time in its career and at its 9th start this prep. It does bring some decent Saturday Sydney form to the race and it'd be no surprise to see it win, but I'm prepared to risk it here. The big unknown is NEVERLAND who has been fairly disappointing for Darren Weir so far. Having said that, he has struck some strong races and dodgy tracks, and he really gets his chance today. Carries just 54kg and gets up to his ideal trip. He's a two-time Group 2 Perth Cup runner-up over this distance, and the rise to the 2400m has seen him improve sharply on those occasions. There's absolutely no excuses for him today. BENZINI is honest and will be thereabouts. MY DIAMANTINE the value.

TIP: Self Sense

Race 7

Very competitive race. I'm going to be backing a couple at longer odds. The firs tof those is MONSIEUR GUSTAVE who I outlined as the best value in the Eye Liner Stakes last start and sure enough he won at $21. He meets a couple of horses worse of at the weights here but he's going to put himself right on the speed and be in it for a long way. He's still only having his third run back for the campaign, and while his second up record is better than his third up record, lots of these horses are deep into a preparation. At $13 he's worth having something on. The horse I really want to be backing, however, is WILLIAM WALLACE at $12. This horse has had three starts in Australia for two wins. If you put a pen through his first up run on a Heavy track, his two wins read pretty nicely for this race. He won two starts ago over track and distance and did it very easily, and last start he won in a quicker time than the Listed race over the same distance on that day. The wide barrier isn't ideal but he'll get well back in the field anyway, and that will at least allow him to get to the outside free of traffic. I think he's a terrific bet here and I'm very keen. TOO GOOD TO REFUSE, FLAMBOYER and YESTERDAY'S SONGS worth including.

TIP: Monsieur Gustave EW / William Wallace EW (Best Value)

Race 8

Happy enough to be on ACATOUR here at $3.25. He'll be better off for the first up run and will relish the step up to 1600m. Last start he was luckless when held up for runs in the straight before flashing home to get within a length of Monsieur Gustave over 1350m. He won in Group 3 company over 1600m last prep and the firmer track here will probably only help him even further. Lloyd retains the ride, looks hard to beat on the big Sunshine Coast track. Quite impressed with MY TRUE LOVE's effort in the Group 2 Dane Ripper Stakes behind Prompt Response, who then came out and ran 2nd in the Group 1 Tatts Tiara. However, she's got the job ahead of her here from barrier 20. Unsure whether she's quite looking for 1600m but she bolted in two starts ago over 1400m in Sydney. Two at value could be CARELESS CHOICE and CONSTANTINE. Careless Choice was a horror watch in the Guineas last start, never clear at any stage. Constantine just continues to win and although they've been in much easier grade, he can only beat what's put in front of him.

TIP: Acatour (Best Bet)

Race 9

Capacity field of 16 with six emergencies and a $6 favourite...not an easy way to finish the day! I've narrowed it down to two each way plays, but in reality there is a host of chances here. The first I want to have something on is KWANZA at $23. This horse ran a bottler first up from a 253 day spell at Kilcoy, running 2nd by half-a-length. He's never won from eight starts when first up, so that was a good showing. The key here is his second up record, which is two wins and a placing from five starts, meaning he generally improves sharply at his second run back from a spell. He carries an extra 1kg here but the senior jockey takes over from the 3kg apprentice. Has won two from three at the track and distance and could go well here. The second I want to back is ORADONNA. This horse pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia at his first start back following a year off the track, then had a short break with a couple of trials before he won easily over 1000m here. Last start he got checked at the start and found himself a long way back, but ran on to finish 4th at Kilcoy behind a Where's ThatDragon, Kwanza and Reigning Thunder. He's got a great record at the track with four wins and two placings from eight starts, and from the good draw today and down in weight, I think he can really run a good race here at $12. Plenty of others I could mention here but I'll be having a go at those two at each way odds.

TIP: Kwanza EW / Oradonna EW