Well, the tremendous prime time game bubble had to burst eventually. Whilst this might have looked like an attractive game before the season kicked off, we head into Monday Night Football with a Texans team struggling offensively under second year quarterback C.J. Stroud, and a Cowboys team that just might be the worst in the NFL right now. Luckily, there’s always gambling to make these below average games more fun, and we are going to dive in and make it worth sweating through all four quarters of this game.
NFL Week 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans
AT&T Stadium, Tuesday 19th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Cowboys were woeful last week, with their first game minus Dak Prescott under center, the Cowboys were utterly dominated by their NFC East rivals the Philadelphia Eagles, going down 34-6. The Cowboys managed just 146 yards of total offense, whilst Cooper Rush could only manage 66 yards through the air at a poultry 1.5 yards per play. Whilst they are getting healthier on defence, it’s impossible to trust this team to get anything from their matchups, given their complete lack of ground game and now, with Rush at quarterback, the apparent non-existent air game. With Dak Prescott ruled out for the season, the Cowboys are well and truly in the frame for the number 1 overall pick next season.
The Texans played in a crazy Sunday Night Football game at home last week, managing to make the Lions offense look second rate through three quarters of football. The Texans defence has taken a huge step forward, and with five picks last week against the Lions, they have shown they can also make the explosive plays on that side of the ball. Unfortunately, the offense continued to struggle, with Stroud managing just 232 yards with a touchdown and two picks, and Joe Mixon managing only 46 yards at 1.8 yards per carry. They get Nico Collins back this week, which should be massive for this offense moving forward.
Injury Report
Dallas Cowboys
DaRon Bland / Jourdan Lewis / Amani Oruwariye (CB) – OUT
Earl Bostick Jr. / Nathan Thomas (OT) – OUT
Marshawn Kneeland / DeMarcus Lawrence / Samuel Williams (DE) – OUT
Brandin Cooks (WR) – OUT
Dak Prescott (QB) – OUT
Hunter Luepke (RB) - Doubtful
CeeDee Lamb (WR) – Questionable
Zack Martin (OG) – Questionable
Houston Texans
Blake Fisher / Kenyon Green (OT) – OUT
Will Anderson Jr. (DE) – OUT
Foley Fatukasi (DT) – OUT
Stefon Diggs (WR) – OUT
Jaylon Thomas (OG) – OUT
Kamari Lassiter (CB) – Questionable
Match Preview
The big Texas rivalry, that isn’t really a rivalry. These teams last met in week 14 of the 2022 NFL season, and despite it being just two years ago, these teams are vastly different. At the time, the Cowboys were 9-3, on their way to a 12-5 record and a Divisional Round playoff loss to the 49ers. The Texans, meanwhile, were on the way to a 3-13-1 record, which netted them the number 2 overall pick, where they selected C.J. Stroud. The Cowboys won the game 27-23 but had to come back from 23-17 down in the fourth quarter to win.
This game opened with the Texans as 6-point road favourites on the lookahead, and after the Cowboys’ poor performance last week, it was adjusted all the way to 7.5 at re-open on Monday. The number hasn’t moved all week; however, the Cowboys have been bet more towards the end of the week. The number is still 7.5, but it is juiced towards the Cowboys. Numbers wise, I haven’t been able to downgrade the Cowboys fast enough, with my number for the game sitting at 6.5. Despite having a numbers edge, I can’t bet this Cowboys team right now, who could well be the worst team in football.
Looking at the total, it opened 43.5 on the lookahead, before adjusting to 41.5 at re-open. The total has stayed in this area all week, with the books surely too scared to drop this below the key total of 41. My fair is pretty close to this number; however, it hasn’t fully accounted for the fact the Cowboys have lost Dak Prescott. After seeing their offense last week, I don’t trust the Cowboys to trouble the scorers all that much on Monday night. I’ll take them to go under their team total, against a solid defence in the Texans who will look to get up early and lean on their run game and defence.
Speaking of their run game, I like Joe Mixon to go over his rushing total this week, despite it being higher than it has for several weeks. Mixon and the Texans should dominate a Cowboys run defence that ranks dead last in the NFL in EPA versus the run and is bottom-five in both DVOA and fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Expect Mixon to have a day.
Prop Bet:
Joe Mixon (over) 86.5 rushing yards - $1.90 at Dabble (1.5u)
Cowboys (team total) under 16.5
$1.98 (1.5 Units)
