After a cracking Thursday Night Football game between the Browns and Steelers, we are blessed with another huge prime time game, as the LA Chargers play host to the Baltimore Ravens. The Chargers have quietly been going about their year, and now sport an impressive four game winning streak. The Ravens, meanwhile, will look to take advantage of the Steelers’ Thursday Night Football loss, as a win here will bring them back to within 0.5 a game of the Steelers. Plenty on the line in what should be an entertaining game.
NFL Week 12 Preview & Betting Tips
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens
SoFi Stadium, Tuesday 26th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Chargers kept their momentum alive last week, with an entertaining 34-27 win over the Bengals. It was all Chargers in the first half, as they led 24-6 at halftime, but concerningly for the Chargers they let the Bengals come right back into the game. Justin Herbert was almost perfect in the first half and managed to put a game winning drive together in just 27 seconds in the final quarter. He ended with 297 yards and 2 touchdowns, whilst also rushing for a team-high 65 yards. Rookie Ladd McConkey has developed into Herbert’s go-to guy, hauling in 6 catches for 123 yards, including receptions of 28 yards and 27 yards in the game winning drive.
The Ravens come into week 12 off the back of two tough divisional games against the Bengals and Steelers, and things don’t get any easier. Lamar was once again held (relatively) in check by the Steelers defence last week, throwing for 207 yards and rushing for 46. But it was a tough game for the number 1 offense in the AFC, as the Steelers managed three turnovers, and held the Ravens to just 329 total yards, their second lowest total of the season.
Injury Report
Los Angeles Chargers
Deane Leonard / Asante Samuel Jr. (CB) – OUT
Denzel Perryman (MLB) – OUT
Hayden Hurst (TE) – OUT
Simi Fehoko / Brenden Rice (WR) – OUT
Derwin James (FS) – Questionable
Joey Bosa / Khalil Mack / Bud Dupree (OLB) – Questionable
Ladd McConkey (WR) – Questionable
Baltimore Ravens
Sanoussi Kane (SAF) – OUT
Arthur Maulet (CB) – OUT
Michael Pierce (DT) – OUT
Tyler Linderbaum (C) – Questionable
Travis Jones (DT) – Questionable
Roquon Smith (LB) – Questionable
Match Preview
These teams met exactly one year ago at SoFi Stadium, in one of the more interesting wrinkles to the 2024 NFL schedule. The Ravens closed as 3-point road favourites, covering the spread and winning the game 20-10. Both teams struggled offensively, but with both these teams looking vastly different just 12 months on, I won’t take a great deal out of this result.
The Ravens were 3-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 2.5-point road favourites after the week 11 games had concluded. Throughout the week, this number has bounced back and forth between 2.5 and 3, which makes complete sense given how well the Chargers have played this season. I make the Ravens a 3-point favourite and believe the Ravens winning by 3 is a highly likely outcome of this game. Given this, I see value in the Ravens at -2.5, if you can get them at $1.90 or better. Whilst the Chargers have been impressive this season, they only have one win over a team above .500, and that was the Denver Broncos in week 6, leading me to believe the Ravens should get the win here.
Looking at the total, it was 47 on the lookahead, before re-opening 47.5. It has been one way action since, with the total bet all the way up to the key number of 51. Totals of 51 and higher are 3-6 to the under, showing these games totalled high are often more low scoring than the market predicts. My fair total for this game is 47.5, which makes sense with the opener. The over has clearly been steamed based off the Chargers week 11 game against the Bengals, where both teams scored at will during parts of the game. I know it is narrative-y, but the ‘Harbaugh Bowl’ could well be a tough, tactical, and defensive battle between the two brothers. My number likes the under, and I like it too with how high it’s been bet. Under 51 is the play.
Looking at props, and it’s Chargers’ tight end Will Dissly that is the bet for me here. Dissly has come on strongly in his seventh season in the NFL, and already has career highs in targets, receptions, and yards with 7 games left in the season. Justin Herbert trusts Dissly over the middle, and has targeted him early and often, with 5+ targets in five of his last six games. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-highest yards per game to opposing tight ends and defend in a two-high look at the seventh highest rate in the NFL. Against two high, Dissly leads the team in first-read share, and target share. Dissly overs is the play.
Secondary Bet: Ravens (-2.5) - $1.90 at Dabble (1u)
Prop Bet: Will Dissly (over) 44.5 receiving yards - $2.00 at Unibet (1.5u)
Under 51 Points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
