Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Sandown on Wednesday, July 8th.
We’re on the lakeside course again for midweek racing. The track is currently a heavy but expect an upgrade or two with the rail out 7 metres.
Best Bet: Race 6 (2) Ruban Bleu
Best Value: Race 4 (5) Copper Fox
The favourite here is (6) Zesty Belle who I was keen on last start. She raced wide but was still a touch disappointing late, finishing 3rd. I’ve got queries on her over 1200m given that was over 1000m so at the price I have to be against. (5) Zacouver still has a lot to learn but has been close up in two career starts. Willo jumps on and from barrier one should get every chance with the rail as a guide. The early price has disappeared with (1) Lover Lover who has jumped out nicely. If she gets back out, I could entertain a play on her.
(10) Toyetic opened at $3.50 and has been backed into $2.50 at the time of writing. He looks exceptionally hard to beat here coming off an unlucky debut 2nd. He was very well backed to start odds on against older horses and should’ve won with luck from barrier one. He draws better here in 6 and Jamie Mott is riding very well. The danger is (2) Celestial Sol who started $3.60 in a listed race on debut. Willo jumps on for Waller but the draw is tricky and aside from the winner of that race the form has been fairly average. (12) Yulong Island was disappointing first up at Caulfield but could bounce back with an easy lead from the inside. Pretty keen on Toyetic, even after the early support. He would’ve been my best bet if the $3.5 was still available!
Very tough race. Interested to see what they do tactically with (1) Regardsmaree. They’d stated intent to ride further back before being scratched at the gates last week. He’s now five weeks between runs, but has raced well fresh, and back to 1300m probably suits. The horse clearly has the best form this preparation. (4) Heyington Station has been in a few of the same races and run well, but he’s really struggling to win. There’s not much between (2) Diode and (8) Rich Hips. The latter comfortably beat the former last preparation, but Diode did have excuses and was spelled immediately after. He was good first up, just getting nailed on the line by a handy one. (13) Refreshed goes Jack Hill to Olly, which is about a big a jockey upgrade possible. She ran very well first up behind Diaquin and Brazen Song, who both ran well at Flemington Saturday. She just needs a touch of luck early to be right there. The one at big odds I’m interested in is (7) Fighting Whiskey. First up off a gelding operation he ran very well behind Ocean Miss and The Executioner who are pretty handy horses. He’ll get a long way back but wouldn’t shock. Expect a big price on the exchange too.
Value: (19) Fighting Whiskey $19.00
Very interesting runner here in the form of (7) Savvy Lad. This NZ galloper had two disappointing runs in Australia last preparation, albeit in good company. He comfortably beat a subsequent group winner in NZ before coming over here and has jumped out very well. I think the value in the race lies with (5) Copper Fox. He ran the fastest last 800, 600 and 400m of the meeting at Geelong, running 2nd to the very handy Our Wind Spirit. He’s 2/2 second up and handles soft ground. He’ll need luck and/or a good ride, but he’s great value. (10) Kamien was good first up and gets in very light after the claim. Copper Fox will be my best result in the race, but I won’t be losing on Savvy Lad because he’s probably the best horse in the race.
Value (5) Copper Fox $15.00
Typical open staying race. There’s not much between most of these in the market, but I do think (9) Meteor Light is ready to win. He finished alongside (2) Fanciful Toff last start and meets him 2kg better. Meteor Light is 5th up now and should be set to peak. The winner of that race was (5) Yulong Captain who is seeking a hat-trick. He had a great run behind the leaders but was strong, just defeating (6) Converging who also had a good run. (7) Crimson Ace started $6 in that race and was well beaten. Olly said she knuckled and basically gave up at the 800m. Her win prior at Mornington was very good. (1) Patch Adams was very strong through the line over 1800m last start and has claims.
Good race. Unless the track is heavily on speed, I’m very keen on (2) Ruban Bleu. His last start behind Alfa Oro was excellent at Caulfield on a tough day to make ground, coming home in the fastest last 600m of the day. He’s better suited here over 1200m and the speed looks good. (1) More Than Exceed beat Ruban Bleu three back, but Ruban Bleu was first up there. He’s a big chance but does draw wide with ample speed inside, so he might be cast out wide or forced to settle further back. (3) Choisborder is set to peak here with an outstanding 3rd up record. He’ll probably have the leader’s back in run. (7) Global Gift is an interesting import. He ran fairly well first up over 1000m, but I’d suggest still needs further to be competitive here.
(3) Zoubo is the $3 favourite here, and I can’t have her that short based off her record. She keeps racing well but really struggles to win. I’ll side with (2) She Shao Fly who has changed camps and comes here off a freshen up, where she usually races well. First up she ran home very strongly in a good race behind Barbie’s Fox, giving that hose 2.5kg. She’ll get back from the gate, but if they’re coming wide in the straight she’ll have clear air to build momentum. (11) Wish I Might next best off a respectable first up run behind Our Wind Spirit. Hopefully Copper Fox wins race 4 and strengthens the form.
I’m not sure why (5) Trigger Point is $11 if (6) Hapaira is $6 when the former beat the latter fair and square when they met. Trigger Point draws wide, but Cartwright can just roll across the very long run to the first turn and find a comfortable spot. (7) Moscow Red was a touch unlucky last start and is racing very well. Wary of Egan jumping on (12) The Wrangler who has won his last two. The horse he beat last start somehow knocked off Lake’s Folly at Bendigo on Friday, which is good form. (15) Really Swish isn’t a great betting proposition with 2 wins from 26 starts but is racing well. Willo jumps on which is significant especially at this time of year, but I couldn’t back him to win.
