Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Wednesday, August 19th.
Victorian racing takes place at Sandown on the Lakeside course this Wednesday, with eight races on the card. The track is rated a Soft 5 with the rail out 2m. Trent Crebbin has looked over every race on the card and offered his tips and best bets below!
Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, August 19th
Best Bet: Race 8 - (11) Wilmot Pass
Best Value: Race 7 - (2) Copper Fox
There has been a huge early move for (12) Starelle who is having her 2nd race start for Danny O’Brien and Damien Oliver. Her debut run in May was a good 2nd in stronger company, albeit beaten 3.5L. If you got the early price well done, but I have to take her on at sub $3. I wish (8) Perfect World had drawn a gate now up to 1400m. She was forced to go back from the wide barrier last start, but rocketed home in some good sectionals, running the 3rd fastest last 200m of the day, only 0.2 seconds of group class sprinter Express Pass. Up to 1400m suits and if she gets the right race shape, I think she’ll be right in the finish at a generous each way price. (2) Awkward should also appreciate 1400m and closed off in the fastest last 400m of the meeting at Cranbourne last start. She’s becoming a bit costly but with luck from barrier 2 will go close. Plenty of debutants here too and I thought (4) Clarence River wasn’t hopeless but the raced horses do have a good deal of talent. Happy to back Perfect World at double figures and if you’re an each way punter the $3.30 place dividend looks good.
Pretty keen on (2) Maccabee second up here. He ran over 1200m here first up, settled back in the field and worked home nicely through the line behind Dirty Thoughts. A very much inform Mark Zahra jumps on here and he’ll love the 1400m. (6) Surooj is first up and beat Maccabee home in the VRC Sires last preparation, but Maccabee had the SP and raced 3 wide no cover. Surooj is first up at 1400m and the jumpouts haven’t been spectacular despite in strong company. Happy to take on the current favourite (5) The Big Easy who did win well at Cranbourne last start, but Zahra jumps off to ride Maccabee and I think the form is a bit suspect. (7) Tyche Goddess beat the older horses on debut and Olly replaces Stockdale, which is a bit scary, but off the horse’s debut I don’t think she’s much of a chance.
Tricky race with a dominant favourite in (1) Shotmaker. He took on some very handy races as a 3yo including a 2.4L seventh to Super Seth. He returned as a 4yo at Wodonga over 1100m and was far too good as the $1.35 favourite. They’ve booked Laura Lafferty to ride which is a bit of a concern because she’s going at 4% over her last 50 rides and has never won a metro race. If a few jockeys try to make life difficult for her and cross the favourite it becomes very difficult. (2) Inspired Sun got way too far back last start at Geelong, settling last of 11 and coming home strongly to run 5th, beaten 1.6L. Still stuck on the 1 win from 7 starts, his racing pattern is getting very costly. The one I can make a case for at double figures is (9) Namimo. She ran 4th first up after a slow beginning and raced in restricted room basically the entire straight on the inside. The form out of that race is quite good, and she did break her maiden nicely in a strong race 2nd up last preparation. Namimo then went on to run 3rd to Chassis at Flemington, coming from near last. Hopefully she jumps a touch better today because she has settled on speed in the past and from barrier 2, she can be right up there. (8) Early Morning Rise is first up and the 1300m fresh should suit but she looks short enough here.
(2) Lunar Flare looks very hard to beat here. Her last three starts have been in this grade (and basically this distance) where she’s won two and run a 0.1L 2nd to Cleen Acheeva who got a big head start on speed and has since run 3rd in a stronger race at Caulfield. Lunar Flare won’t be far away in the field of 8 and with Olly aboard she should have no issues getting a nice trail. Very hard to beat. (1) Clementina is 2nd up here, jumping from 1600m to 2100m. Her best is certainly good enough but is 2 from 23 and probably isn’t at peak fitness. (3) Tysonic was beaten fair and square by Lunar Flare when they met at Cranbourne. She does get a 2.5kg weight swing but I’d be shocked if that was enough. (6) Collectable could be the danger stepping up in trip after some solid 1600m runs. Keen on Lunar Flare and any black odds on the day is a fair price.
Very tough staying race. (2) Cracksman struggles to win and is hard to back. Slow beginnings and running on were his problem, and then last start he actually led a stronger race and was run down as the $2.80 favourite. Barrier one is a complete unknown here because if he’s slow away and settles back on the rail it becomes very hard, but if he’s up on speed again he’ll be very hard to beat. (6) Austria gets Olly aboard and ran a good 3rd in the Cleen Acheeva race last start. She’s another one that never wins and is hard to back. (1) Skyt did absolutely nothing first and second up over 1400m and 1600m respectively but improved sharply up to 2100m last start at this track. Fourth up at 2400m looks a good recipe for the Tasmanian Derby winner, but the wide barrier doesn’t look ideal on paper for a horse that seems to settle where he draws. If they’re coming off the fence by now hopefully Kah can get him in a three wide line midfield. I’ve got him on top with little confidence and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit longer closer to start time.
Going to give (11) Vitani another chance. I gave her a hope 2nd up off a good 1st up run, but she just got too far back from the wide barrier, running home strongly and clearly looking for further. Gets an extra 100m here and draws nicely in barrier 5 so she should be able to settle midfield. She’s also won twice from four 2nd up runs and likes soft ground. (7) Carrie had two runs in her first Australian campaign, winning a handy Pakenham maiden as an odds on favourite before running 2nd in a Sale BM58. Like with Starelle in race 1 I’m respecting the trainer/jockey combo but not keen on backing the horse. (9) Red Light Roxanne ran on very well for 2nd behind Mr Tipla 2nd up and might’ve won if Dwayne Dunn had got moving a touch earlier instead of keeping Lake’s Folly in a pocket for 100m. The horse draws nicely in barrier 6 and off its last run is a big chance again. (5) Sublime Miss brings a strong SP profile but whether she’s fit enough first up at 1500m from a wide barrier seems unlikely. Host of other chances in an incredibly open race. Hoping Vitani can settle closer from the barrier and she should be firing 3rd up.
Very annoyed that I jumped off (2) Copper Fox last start on the synthetic. I was very keen on him at double figures the start before here over 1300m, but he didn’t appear to love the heavy going. The first up run behind Our Wind Spirit was excellent and we shouldn’t be on anything worse than a soft 6 here. Gets a perfect 1.5kg claim for gun apprentice Poy, they just need to be making ground and coming off the fence for Copper Fox to be a huge chance. (1) Don’t Doubt Dory is 3 from 4 over her career, culminating in a Stony Creek Cup win last preparation. She can keep progressing and the blinkers first time and first up is interesting. (5) Stardayz will be on speed and give a kick as she always does. Tough horse to catch and she seems to bob up when longer in the market than she is here. (8) Renegade is first up with Zahra on board. He’s won twice fresh and is up to this grade. (10) Bacchus drops back to 1400m fourth up for Waller/Olly which is usually a recipe for success. The Pierro gelding seems to need a bone dry track to perform though and if the rain does come, he might be vulnerable or even scratched.
Easily the race of the day to finish and (11) Wilmot Pass is a deserved favourite. He won nicely in a similar race at Flemington two back before starting a well backed $2.35 favourite at The Valley and had absolutely no luck, running up backsides most of the straight from barrier 1 before flashing home, running the 3rd fastest last 200m by just 0.03 seconds despite having no momentum whatsoever. Gets a much longer straight here and draws barrier 3, so Kah should be able to obtain clear running. He easily accounted for (13) Proper Rogue at Flemington although that horse did have the SP. I thought then and still think that Wilmot Pass is the better horse and much harder to beat here. I thought the danger at odds might be (10) Sebrakate who comes out of the Proper Rogue race at The Valley. He was another victim of the coffin there, racing keenly and never being able to build momentum which is crucial at that track. Second up last preparation he ran 3rd to Super Seth and King Of Hastings, beaten 1.35L. Luke Nolen jumps aboard here and if he can find a nice spot midfield from the barrier, I think he’s a huge chance and should easily be single figures. If the track is favouring leaders (2) Sir Kalahad is a big chance. He was well backed in the Wilmot Pass race but pulled up lame. He bolted in at this T/D two back when given an uncontested lead. Pretty keen to back Wilmot Pass and think he’ll start a dominant favourite, and also very happy to back Sebrakate.
Value: (10) Sebrekate $12
