Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Sandown Hillside on Wednesday, August 26th.
The wet weather racing continues in Melbourne on Wednesday, with eight races on a heavy track at Sandown Hillside. The rail is out 6m for the entire circuit.
Trent Crebbin has previewed every race on the card with his tips and best bets below!
Sandown Hillside Racing Tips: Wednesday, August 26th
Best Bet: Race 6 - (4) Cadre Du Noir
Best Value: Race 7 - (11) Vegas Knight (also backing (5) Howlowcanyougo)
Nice little mare’s race to kick us off. I’ll be honest, I’m not sure how the track will play. The rail was out 8 metres a couple of months ago on a heavy track and it played fairly, but I thought that last week on the Lakeside and you basically had to lead to have any chance. The most likely scenario is advantage on pace early and perhaps coming wider later in the day. With that in mind, the hardest to beat does look (2) West Wind who brings the best form. She ran very well behind Sovereign Award at The Valley, and you could argue she should’ve got closer than the 1L margin. She maps for a lovely run just behind the pace, but a heavy track is a concern. If she handles it, I think she’ll win. One that will definitely handle it is (7) Opoho Dreaming who broke her maiden at Warnambool. On talent and form she should be triple her current quote. (6) Elvaric was very good at Flemington behind Jittery Jack, running the 2nd fastest last 800/600m of the race. She probably gets back from the wide barrier but shouldn’t be too far off them in the small field. (3) Jungle Jane likes it wet but was beaten a long way by West Wind last start despite settling back and did start $26 there. If West Wind handles the track, I think she wins, but you’re not getting a price to find out. Something small on Elvaric to kick off the day.
Really tough one. A few of these come out of two races at this T/D three weeks ago. (6) High Risk won the race later in the day in a time of 57.63, which was faster than the race containing (3) He Can Star who ran 4th, and (7) Manhattan War who ran 2nd. The closing sectionals of High Risk were better than He Can Star despite the former leading all the way and the latter coming from off the speed, albeit off a wide run. 2nd in the High Risk race by the barest of margins was (9) Kingstar Amber who had her head down everywhere but the post. There’s only a 0.5kg weight swing but it’ll come down to who has the best run. I thought perhaps the value could be (2) The Crusha. He gets a 1kg weight swing off (4) Sapphire Crown for a 0.75L defeat and whilst he had his chance, he wasn’t able to build momentum around the turn, only getting clear in the straight. He also started $4.60 to Sapphire Crown’s $3.30 there but is $9 here. The Crusha draws barrier 1 here so expect him to be right on speed and if something rolls off the fence, he can explode up the inside. It wasn’t long ago that he finished 4th over 1000m at Flemington to Bold Star, finishing just behind Propelle and ahead of Vainstream, so he’s definitely got the talent. The other positive is wet ground, with an easy kill on a Moe heavy 10 when leading all the way. Very tough race but at the odds I’m leaning the way of The Crusha.
Over to the 3yo’s in another tricky one. (4) Peggy Selene hasn’t really done much wrong all preparation, her worst finishing position 6th, beaten under a length and pulling up with a slow recovery. She got every favour at this T/D last start sitting in the 1x1, with the other two on pace horses finishing just behind her. One of those was (8) Cut It Out who over raced in the lead and finished 3rd. She gets a 2kg weight swing on Peggy Selene, but another wet track has me a touch worried. Peggy Selene likes it and takes those small quick strides that signify a prototype wet tracker, whereas Cut It Out is taller and looks like she’ll be better on top of the ground. (3) Fresh was disappointing first up in the Quezette, which looks suspect despite rating well. I’m not sure she’s come back as a 3yo and wet track is a concern for her too. (2) Jerle is fine on a wet track but I don’t think he’s much good but may have improved. Going to go with (5) Unanimous who is first up. She won well on debut sitting very wide at this T/D, not beating much but doing it easily. She then went to The Valley and took a while to pick up but was charging to the line and would’ve made it very interesting but was completely blocked for a run at the 100m, going to the line under a hold. I’m prepared to forgive her 3rd career start when settling back and running on okay in an on pace dominated race. I think she’ll be okay on a wet track although it is still an unknown, and with chinks in every horse here I thought she could be the play.
(11) Buona Sera looks the hardest to beat here coming off a narrow 2nd to subsequent Saturday winner Dirty Thoughts (who had every favour on the leader’s slog). Draws wide here so may have to work to get across and a heavy track is unknown, so she looks a touch short, albeit a deserved favourite. I’m hoping they go at a decent clip because (1) Modear is going to get back but looks a huge chance. I loved her first up run behind Chassis at Caulfield, settling 13th in run but running on very nicely to finish 7th, beaten 2.5L. She’s much better suited at 1300m 2nd up, and probably should’ve won at this track on a soft 7 over 1000m in February in a handy race. Her only heavy track run was a failure but that may have been an end of prep run and was a much stronger race. Tahlia claims 2kg and if they are starting to make ground, I think she’s a big chance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bigger price on the day because of the map too. (9) Drone Strike comes out of the Quezette and ran 12th. She’s suited up to 1300m here but I’m not sure you can back her off that run, especially as she likely gets back from barrier 8 too.
Kicking myself I missed the early price of $10 about (13) Wairere Falls. I’ve given him a couple of chances and whilst he ran 3rd for us last start, he hasn’t exactly delivered. The set up looks perfect for him here though, because he’s clearly been crying out for further and steps up to the 1600m here. He took a while to pick up but was very strong through the line last start and was only beaten 0.3L. The other big tick is Olly replaces Thornton, who has ridden him at every start this prep and has been kicked off to ride (14) Blondeau. Wet ground is no issue, he draws nicely to sit just off the pace or midfield, and the 1600m with Olly on screams intent. (2) Lord Markel beat him home when first up before putting in an even effort at Flemington in a fairly on pace dominated race. (5) Just Jake is flying on heavy tracks and beat a subsequent winner in Dirty Deeds last start when leading all the way. I like Wairere Falls again here, but the market has overreacted to the early support a touch. I think he’ll get back out a bit when the market percentage comes down and if he does, I’ll be happy to back him again.
Staying race of the day and (4) Cadre Du Noir looks very hard to beat. Both runs in Australia have been very good and he should be primed 3rd up here. Draws perfectly in barrier 3, Melham likely leads on the rail or takes a trail behind a couple drawn out wide. Either way he looks very hard to beat. The danger is clearly (3) Crimson Ace who was a touch unlucky but still finished 1.5L behind Cadre Du Noir at Flemington last start. He does get a 1.5kg weight swing but that’s mainly due to Stockdale replacing Olly, which is worth the weight difference every time. Cadre Du Noir was only 2nd up there and Maher & Eustace stayers generally improve with every run. The only thing stopping the favourite from being odds on is the SP from last start, $4.60 compared to Crimson Ace’s $5.50, but with improvement to come I struggle to see the result being reversed. (1) Light Pillar is racing consistently but has had every chance with Lafferty aboard. (2) Meteor Light likes it wet but has struggled for form the last few. Pretty keen on Cadre Du Noir and on a tough day I think he’s the most likely winning chance and my best bet.
Handy little race. I loved the first up run of (11) Vegas Knight at Flemington, getting back to last and coming home in the fastest last 800,600,400 and 200m of the race. 2nd up last prep he took on a very hot race and was only 3.7L off Russian Camelot. My only query with Vegas Knight is that he may be looking for 1600m now, and 2000m later on but stays at 1400m here. There are a couple here that like to control the race in front so they should go at a decent clip. He’s another one that you need to see them making ground earlier in the day before backing, but if they are, I think he’ll run a big race. If we’re on a drying surface and down to a soft 7, I’ll be backing (5) Howlowcanyougo. Two starts ago at 1400m on a soft 7 he sat outside Global Gift and won nicely at level weights. Global Gift then came out and bolted in before starting favourite at The Valley and having no hope on the track there. I don’t think Howlowcanyougo saw out the 1600m last start so back to 1400, drawn for a nice suck run behind the speed coming across from out wide, he looks hard to beat. (7) Chuck A Luck is first up here. He ran 3rd in a similar race when first up at 1400m last prep before running some nice races over further. He’ll be beaten for speed early here and probably goes back over a distance short of his best and therefore looks unders. (9) Diode looks the leader and won well on a heavy track last start at Sale. This is a step up but any on pace pattern helps him greatly. Happy to back Howlowcanyougo, and also keen on Vegas Knight if they are making ground.
Value: (11) Vegas Knight $10
I see no reason (6) Approach Discreet can’t win again. I was keen on him last start and he was backed off the map to start $2.50 favourite, duly bolting in by 2.5L. If Olly can use barrier 2 and settle midfield, he’ll be very hard to hold out late. Goes up 2.5kg for his win at the T/D last start but it’s deserved, and he looks hard to beat. (11) Upswing is a stayer on the up but drops back to 1800m here and is 45 days into this. Quite a few of these haven’t been past a mile but perhaps (7) Blinder is looking for it. He was another that was backed off the map last start, but he only plugged to the line over 1500m. (13) Unfair Dismissal will cross with the light weight and can give a sight if there’s no pressure. (2) Lord Durante the 12yo is racing consistently. His run last start behind Skyman and Cadre Du Noir over 2000m is good enough for this. This race lacks depth and Approach Discreet is the horse racing well with upside and is one of my better bets for the day.
(6) Approach Discreet
$4.20
