Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Saturday, July 11th.
Winter racing returns to Rosehill, with the Winter Stakes headlining a solid card. The track is rated a soft 6 with rain expected on the day, while the rail is out 5 metres.
Best Bet: Race 7 (8) Noble Boy, Also backing (5) Girl Tuesday
Best Value: Race 8 (9) You Make Me Smile
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, July 11th
(2) North Pacific was backed heavily when markets opened and it’s not hard to see why. He’s had one run, finishing a distant 3rd to the Golden Slipper winner Farnan. His recent trial was very good, and he looks hard to beat. I loved the trail of (1) Lady Banff, cruising to a 3.5L victory. She won well first up with 59kg on heavy ground, and a slightly firmer surface should help here. Does go Jmac to Louise Day (who claims 3kg) which isn’t ideal but she’s a good filly. (6) Sahra was impressive on debut and can repeat the dose, just not sure where she gets to from the barrier. The Kris Lees pair of (4) Miss Canada and (5) Redoute’s Image have both shown talent, especially the former. She was narrowly beaten by Doubtland which could be the A1 form come Spring, and has never started over $4, so the $13 here is appealing. I don’t want to lose on North Pacific so if he remains around the $3 mark, I’m happy to save on him and back Miss Canada.
Saver: (2) North Pacific $2.90
(10) Fulmina stays down in the weights and looks very hard to beat here. This filly is flying with two wins and a 2nd this preparation. I loved her last start win, and the strength of her last 200m and through the line suggests the step up to 2000m will be no issue whatsoever. 4th up last preparation she put up over 2L on star Oaks winner Colette. The danger could be (6) Birth Of Venus who has an excellent 3rd up record. She won easily over this track and distance on heavy ground when last 3rd up and was solid behind potential group horse Mount Popa last start. Next best who has been well backed is (1) My Swashbuckler who has been crying out for the longer trip. This OTI import took on some very good races in France and was very strong late last start, albeit in a lower race. I’d be shocked if anything else won, but quite keen Fulmina can beat the older horses again.
(1) Rothenburg was scratched from the Grafton guineas for this but does draw the carpark. The horse is going well and has a win and a 2nd from two 4th up attempts. (2) Blazing Tycoon draws perfectly in 5 and was coming off 46 days when running 2nd at Muswellbrook last start. The step up to 1400m on the quick backup here is an ideal set up. (15) Dream Runner started $5.50 against Rothenberg last start but got too far back on a heavy track. (17) Starliv could cross and lead after leading all the way at a good pace last start as favourite.
Hopefully Fulmina wins race 2 because it should ensure (11) Zing is well backed and hard to beat. This filly didn’t have the best of luck behind Fulmina last start, but narrowly beat her the start before. Jason Collett is riding very well as evidenced by his pearl on Sixties Groove Thursday and can position her just off the rail midfield. Back to 1500m is no problem and Zing should be able to sprint quickly with just 54kg. I think we’ll see (2) Frosty Rocks allowed to run them along. He wasn’t able to do that last start and went under as the $2.50 favourite, beaten by (7) Steel Diamond and (3) Academy who are both flying. The enigmatic (1) Lewis can win again after a gelding operation which seems to have done the trick. He’s very talented when right.
Quite a bit of pace here with (3) Switched on the backup after getting nailed on the line by the very talented Tailuer. (5) Varda was dominant first up leading all the way at Canterbury, which may have flattered the margin but was impressive nonetheless. (8) Willowheart is speedy, lightly raced and started very well in the market behind Splintex last time in. Berry can let them cross if they go all out, or opt to take the lead if they try to amble across. Either way I think she’s a big price at $11. The other horse I want to back is (2) Zaniah who was excellent first up behind speedster Witherspoon, charging late to just miss after jumping very awkwardly. She’s much better suited at 1100m and has won 2nd up. The map is a touch difficult for her, ideally she’d be drawn to sit just off the leaders and have last crack. Hopefully they aren’t too negative and can find a spot midfield.
Value: (8) Willowheart $11
(1) Bandersnatch has to concede weight to the field, even as a 3yo, but he does look the horse to beat. He’s been taking on some hot races in his age group and been well in the market each time despite not winning. His run last start for 2nd was huge in the same grade, racing wide on speed and getting done by a head on the line by a horse poking through on the fence. He draws wide again here but with any luck should be winning this. Outside of the favourite, it’s a raffle. (6) Edison steps up in trip but is racing consistently and should get an easy run on speed, whilst (5) Monegal gets 2kg off (10) Orcein for a narrow defeat which could prove the difference.
The feature of the day is the Winter stakes, and it’s an interesting if slightly lacklustre field. I’m very keen on (8) Noble Boy who is dual accepted in Queensland. If they choose this option, he’s a massive chance at $6. His last start effort with 58kg was excellent, running on strongly through the inferior ground. He drops to 54kg here and meets (4) Trumbull 4kg better for less than a length defeat. Trumbull is obviously a huge chance and finally jumped cleanly last start which proved the difference. 2nd in that race was (3) Order Again who can certainly win with the right run. I’m not sure where she’s at and the breeding barn may call shortly, but (5) Girl Tuesday is the best horse in the race. She was desperately unlucky in a few starts this campaign before an average showing in Melbourne. A stable change and back to Sydney could spark some form on anything better than a soft 7. She should’ve won here 2nd up over 1500m with Nash aboard, who jumps back on today. I can’t let her go around at the double figures in such an average race, but this is D-day. Happy to back her and Noble Boy provided he runs here.
Value: (5) Girl Tuesday $12
Probably the race of the day here, with some handy horses in good form. I’ll start with the favourite (11) Kordia who couldn’t have been more impressive first up, coming from last to win running away from them. He’ll get a long way back and Berry replaces Jmac which isn’t ideal, but he’s untapped. (2) Embracer was good first up, just getting bloused late by Roheryn. From barrier 2 expect Clark to roll along at a good clip. If the fence is the place to be expect her to firm. (7) Prime Candidate also comes out of that race and is unbeaten 2nd up. He’ll roll across to sit outside Embracer and can improve lengths, as can (9) You Make Me Smile. Speaking of improvement 2nd up, this horse grows an extra leg. He didn’t have a lot of room first up in that Roheryn race and was well backed off a pair of good trials. I think he’s come back well and although better whilst leading which may not eventuate here, he’s a big price at $15. (8) Inanup opened a similar price and has been well backed. He also improves 2nd up certainly has the form to win. Great race and happy to spec You Make Me Smile. I think Kordia will drift, and if I see close to the $5 mark late, I’d be happy to make him a winning result also.
(9) You Make Me Smile
$15
Incredibly tough race to finish and not one I’m particularly keen on. I’ll lean the way of (4) Malea Magic who started $5 and finished 4th behind Kordia last start. This is probably a bit easier and his form this campaign has been very consistent without winning. Also starting $5 in that race was (5) Accelerato who draws barrier 4 again and should get a nice run.
(6) Monte Ditto is probably hardest to beat; he’s been bursting for a win and should get every chance from barrier 6 with Nash aboard. (1) Stella Sea Sun can only improve off her first up win and draws well, with Louise Day claiming 3kg.
