Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, February 29th.
Two Group 1s kick off the Sydney carnival, with the Surround Stakes and Chipping Norton Stakes headlining a nine-race card.
Find our selections for every race below!
Randwick Racing Tips: 2020 Chipping Norton Stakes Day
Best Bet: Race 2 - (2) Stellar Pauline
Best Value: Race 7 - (7) Homesman / (13) Verry Elleegant
Never keen to get too involved in these Highways early on the card, but (3) Depth That Varies goes on top. He's first up from a spell with the blinkers on for the first time. First up last prep was a complete forgive run, and he then went on to be beaten less than a length in a similar Highway nine weeks ago, which is when we last saw him. He ran the best final 800m on that occasion, so with the headgear on for the first time, he should be very competitive at each way odds.
(3) Depth That Varies
$7.50
(2) Stellar Pauline looks quite clearly the one to beat here after running 2nd to Away Game in the Magic Millions 2YO race on the Gold Coast. Away Game then came to Sydney and won easily, before a big effort in defeat in the Blue Diamond. That looks the best formline in this race and her trial since last racing was good. It would be disappointing if she wasn't able to get the job done today.
(2) Stellar Pauline
$2.15
It looks like Tommy Berry has chosen to stick with (1) Prague here, who is undefeated from two career starts. He was impressive on debut at Canterbury before backing that up with another good victory in the G3 Canonbury Stakes over 1100m here. Tom Marquand rode him on that occasion but Berry rode him on debut, so he jumps back aboard today. He can land on speed and prove tough to beat once more. (2) Aim was also ridden by Berry in his past two starts. He was super impressive winning two starts ago by 4L, before a somwhat disappointing run in the Magic Millions 2YO race at the Gold Coast. He's better than that and his trial since then was good, so it wouldn't shock to see him bounce back. (6) Tommy Gold should improve off his frst up run here.
Two I'll be backing here. Chris Waller looks to have a smart import here in the form of (3) Imaging, who has looke very good in two trials. He's an Irish import who is a Group 3 winner and Group 2 placed, and was last seen finishing down the track in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Royal Ascot. He has five wins and five 2nds from 12 starts, and he's finished top two in four of his five starts when first up. As mentioned, his trials have been very good, JMac jumps straight on and I'm keen to be with him on his Australian debut here. The other horse is (5) Rock, who was dual accepted for both Melbourne and Sydney, but the Hawkes stable have elected to take their place in Sydney. He's never finished out of the top two from three starts when first up, and he's undefeated from three starts at the distance. He's a terrific chance at $6.00. Backing both horses.
(4) Sweet Deal was an impressive winner first up from a spell on soft ground, which she normally struggles in, so that would indicate she's returned in terrific order. She's finished top two in four of her five starts when second up, and she should appreciate a firmer surface today, so she looks a great winning chance once again. If she's a $3.00 chance, (8) Connemara shouldn't be $16. She was a length off Sweet Deal last prep, and that was in a race where she travelled wide without cover. She's had two runs back this prep, both ofn wet ground, and she's another that will relish getting back onto a firmer surface. With a good third up record, she can be competitive at big odds. (5) Con Te Partiro resumes off a good trial, with the blinkers back on. Her first up record is very good so include her.
Race 6 - G1 Surround Stakes (Market)
This should be a fascinating contest. (1) Flit resumed with a brilliant win over 1200m with the blinkers on for the first time. She should only improve up to 1400m and she's drawn to get a good run in midfield from barrier 7. She's never finished out of the top two here at Randwick and if she improves on that first up run, she'll take a power of beating. (4) Funstar resumes first up over 1400m here, with two trials under the belt. She's had two trials as opposed to the one trial she had leading into last prep, which suggests they've got her a bit more forward this time around. She's drawn awkwardly and I would assume they will go back from that gate. It will be a big effort to run them all down from back in the field, first up over 1400m in Group 1 company. She's also never raced on a good track, only soft, so that's another little box she needs to tick. I'm quite happy to take on the Kiwi filly (5) Probabeel. That win last start in New Zealand was only over Conqueror, who isn't a star over here. Funstar had her measure last prep too. Throw in (11) Heart Of The Oak who beat Positive Peace first up. She's thrown in the deep end here at 50/1.
Race 7 - G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (Market)
I think the main four horses I'll be looking to build a book around are (3) Te Akau Shark, (4) Dreamforce, (7) Homesman and (13) Verry Elleegant. Te Akau Shark was simply breathtaking first up in New Zealand when winning his first Group 1. That was over 1400m and he's only going to be better suited up to the mile here. We know he's capable, the major query is just how much ground he's going to have to make up from barrier 13. The track will be firm, which means it's not always easy to eat into a big margin, so if the likes of Dreamforce have a big break on him, he might find it tough to peg them back. I'd love to see him win but he's short enough at his current quote. Dreamforce did a good job to run as well as he did first up behind Alizee on a soft track. He's never won on wet ground before and he goes significantly better on good ground, so he should get conditions much more to his liking today. The blinkers go back on and he looks perfectly suited to crack his first Group 1. Homesman has had a stable change and is now in the care of Anthony Freedman. He doesn't put them in Group 1s unless they are a chance, and this horse has a terrific fresh record. I think he's the smokey and the value at double figure odds. Verry Elleegant would prefer it wetter but I thought her first up run was terrific and $23 is way over the odds.
Value: (7) Homesman $14 / (13) Verry Elleegant $23
(6) Attorney is a terrific price here at $6.50. I thought his first up run was good. He ran home strongly and recorded the fastest final 800m of the race. Straight up to 2000m second up from a spell should give him his chance to bounce back to the winner's stall and that's a good each way price to find out if he can. Gerald Ryan's promising stayer (10) Chains Of Honour is the one to beat. He's won three of his four career starts and has been dominant in those three wins. He carries just 52kg here and the blinkers are replaced by the winkers. He's had some time off but has trialled between runs and should still have good residual fitness. Will be backing both at $6.50 and $4.60 respectively.
$6.00 about (1) Roheryn looks a decent price. He hasn't done much wrong this prep, winning first up before running 2nd to Vegadeze last start. He goes up a kilo in the weights but he's racing in good form and if he can settle closer from the good draw, he's a strong winning chance again. (3) Accession gets some things in his favour today. He resumed on heavy ground but will find this much firmer, gets the blinkers off for the first time, replaced by the winkers, and Bowman takes over from Schofield. He showed plenty of talent when he was younger, could today be the day he rediscovers his form? (5) Royal Celebration draws well for a good run just behind the leaders. He won at this stage last preparation and this looks a suitable race.
Value: (3) Accession $9.50
