It's been a quiet few weeks for our runaway Brownlow Medal favourite in Lachie Neale. A few of the contenders had closed the gap and made us consider if it was possible that someone else could rise from the pack to snatch "Charlie". However that thought may have been put to bed in Round 16 after Lachie Neale won the medal for best on ground in the Q-Clash against Gold Coast to all-but secure the Brownlow award. Let's take a closer look at the matches from the week with our Round 16 Brownlow vote predictions.
Our Brownlow Medal predictions and rolling Brownlow Medal tracker allow you to keep an eye on the Brownlow betting markets throughout the season, so that you can build a green book so that by the time the 2020 Brownlow Medal night rolls around we’re assured of a profit!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our live 2020 Brownlow Medal leaderboard, while there will be links to round-by-round voting posted there.
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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Round 16 Brownlow Medal Votes
Round 16 might be the round where Gillon McLachlan declares Lachie Neale as the 2020 Brownlow Medallist. He's likely to earn another 3 votes, and eventhough Travis Boak is also likely to be in the votes in Round 16, the lead is likely to be too much to overcome at this point. Let's take a closer look at our Brownlow votes for Round 16.
North Melbourne 6.6.42 def by Port Adelaide 11.12.78
A strange way to kick off Round 16 with the Power thumping the Roos as the only match on a Saturday. Ollie Wines (30 disposals, 7 clearances, 2 goals) and Travis Boak (34 disposals, 9 clearances, 1 goal) will be hard to split for the three votes, while Tom Rockliff (30 disposals, 9 tackles) was also prolific. Luke Davies-Uniacke (24 disposals, 5 clearances) and Jed Anderson (24 disposals, 6 tackles) were best for North.
Ollie Wines – 2.5
Travis Boak – 2.5
Tom Rockliff - 1
St.Kilda 11.14.80 def Hawthorn 9.12.66
The Saints took one step closer to finals after getting home against the Hawks. It’s a tricky game for votes with some even contributions, but perhaps Rowan Marshall might stand out as a key forward with 14 disposals, 8 marks and 2 goals. Zak Jones (22 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal), Seb Ross (23 disposals, 8 clearances), Brad Hill (22 disposals, 5 marks) and Nick Coffield (21 disposals, 11 marks) were also good. Tom Mitchell was best for the Hawks with 27 disposals, 5 marks and 1 goal.
Rowan Marshall – 2.5
Brad Hill – 2.5
Zak Jones – 0.5
Seb Ross – 0.5
Geelong 17.6.108 def Essendon 5.12.42
The Cats blitzed the Dons to end their finals hopes for 2020. The Cats had winners everywhere with Sam Menegola likely to get the three Brownlow votes for his 30 disposals, 6 marks, 8 clearances and 2 goals. Tom Stewart (24 disposals, 10 marks) patrolled half-back, while Tom Hawkins (17 disposals, 8 marks, 4 goals) and Gryan Miers (15 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) smashed the scoreboard.
Sam Menegola – 3
Tom Stewart – 1.5
Tom Hawkins – 1.5
Western Bulldogs 6.13.49 def West Coast 7.5.47
A match worthy of a final saw the Bulldogs keep their season alive with a dramatic win over the Eagles. The Dogs controlled the midfield with Jack Macrae (29 disposals, 5 clearances), Lachie Hunter (24 disposals) and Josh Dunkley (22 disposals, 9 tackles, 1 goal) all kept busy while Caleb Daniel (25 disposals) was allowed to patrol half-back. Marcus Bontempelli’s game will be remembered for his match-winning goal as he ended with 21 disposals and 5 marks.
Jack Macrae – 3
Josh Dunkley – 2
Caleb Daniel - 1
Melbourne 4.9.33 def by Fremantle 6.11.47
It was miserable weather and an equally miserable result for Melbourne as they went down to the Dockers to leave their finals hopes hanging by a thread. Adam Cerra (30 disposals, 1 goal) was excellent in the wet conditions, with good support in the middle from David Mundy (20 disposals, 7 tackles, 7 clearances), Andrew Brayshaw (21 disposals, 7 tackles) and Caleb Serong (18 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles). Michael Walters showed his class up forward to finish with 3 important goals from 11 disposals. Jack Viney (27 disposals, 5 tackles, 7 clearances) and Christian Petracca (25 disposals, 6 clearances) tried hard for the Dees.
Adam Cerra – 3
Jack Viney – 2
Michael Walters – 0.5
David Mundy – 0.5
Adelaide 8.11.59 def GWS Giants 7.5.47
The Crows have won back-to-back games and actually have a chance to avoid the wooden spoon! By contrast the Giants are now in a dire battle to even make the finals after a terrible loss. The game was won in the middle of the ground with the Crows dominating the clearances. Rory Laird (28 disposals, 9 tackles, 11 clearances), Matt Crouch (27 disposals, 12 tackles, 1 goal) and Brad Crouch (31 disposals) should scoop the votes. Lachie Whitfield was best for the Giants with 29 disposals and 7 tackles.
Rory Laird – 3
Matt Crouch – 2
Brad Crouch - 1
Carlton 8.9.57 def Sydney 8.4.52
The Swans piled on the first seven goals of the game but the Blues courageously fought back to secure a dramatic victory. Sam Walsh was clearly best with 25 disposals, 9 marks and a goal in the middle of the ground. Patrick Cripps (17 disposals, 7 tackles, 5 clearances, 1 goal) helped lead the fight back, while Sam Petrevski-Seton (22 disposals, 6 marks) played his best game across half-back. Levi Casboult was the best big man on the ground in the damp conditions with 14 disposals, 6 marks, 8 hitouts and a goal.
Sam Walsh – 3
Patrick Cripps – 2
Sam Petrevski-Seton - 1
Brisbane 13.10.88 def Gold Coast 6.7.43
After his Brownlow rivals closed the gap in recent weeks, you would have to think that Lachie Neale has now locked up the 2020 Brownlow Medal with three votes in Brisbane’s big win over the Suns. Neale won the Marcus Ashcroft medal for best afield for his 33 disposals, including 19 contested, and 6 clearances. Dayne Zorko (25 disposals, 9 marks, 2 goals) and Hugh McLuggage (28 disposals, 1 goal) were also busy in the middle, while Charlie Cameron (15 disposals, 7 marks, 5 tackles, 2 goals) and Cam Rayner (12 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) were good up forward.
Lachie Neale – 3
Dayne Zorko – 2
Charlie Cameron - 1
