Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Saturday, August 29th.
Group 1 racing takes place in Victoria this weekend, but there's a high-quality program assembled at Rosehill too, with three Group 3s on the nine-race card. The highlight of the day is the three-year-olds doing battle in the San Domenico Stakes.
We're racing on a Good 4 with the rail out 3m and Tim Geers has assessed every race of the day below!
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, August 29th
Best Bet: Race 8 – (3) Mugatoo
Best Value: Race 4 – (9) Merlinite
Competitive start to the day with a couple of promising horses resuming against race-fit opposition. (1) She’s Ideel is one of those and she’s had three trials to get her ready for today’s race, so I expect they’ll have her pretty forward. She won three on the bounce to close out last prep, stretching out to 2400m in the process. So first up over 1500m with 60kg is the obvious query, but she might just be better than these. (5) Nimalee has won five of her six starts and she also resumes today. Whether she’s in the same class as the likes of She’s Ideel is a question for mine, but it’s hard to knock her record. (9) Vitesse is knocking on the door for another win, while (10) Saigon has opened her campaign with three straight wins and gets in with 53kg today.
I think (10) Serene Beauty represents a bit of value at $21 here in the Highway. We’ve had three or four consecutive results in the Highways in the past month or so, so hopefully we continue the trend here. This horse has had three starts this prep and his past two runs have been very good barrier trials for a race like this. He’s drawn wide in those and has been snicked to the back. He worked home really nicely two starts ago to run 3rd, and then last start he was making good ground when he ran into backsides the final 50m or so. Back onto firmer ground today and drawn low in barrier 2, we should see him ridden more positively early. (1) Yulong Base, (2) Cosmic Haze, (5) Scarleo and (9) Casino Kid are all chances.
Pretty keen on (8) Badoosh here to make it back-to-back wins. He ran well first up on a day that was dominated by leaders early, and then last start they changed tactics completely and sent him rolling along in front. He never sighted another rival, bolting in by 4.3L. That day was completely dominated by leaders, so he certainly got conditions heavily in his favour, but he’s a horse on the up and he could win again today. (7) Orcein can be ridden more prominently from barrier 1 and should appreciate getting back onto good ground. (2) Discharged ran well first up and should improve second up back onto good ground here. (9) Nicochet is improving with each run and is a place chance, while (10) Papal Warrior is always right around the mark.
(9) Merlinite can give this a little shake at $26. He’s been racing well in midweek company on the heavy tracks, but he’s much better suited back on firmer ground today. He’s never won from six starts on wet ground but has three wins and three placings from eight starts on good tracks. Glen Boss takes over from the apprentice and the main query is his draw in 13. If this were at Randwick I’d be more confident but at the odds, I have to have something on as he looks one of not many horses in the race that are genuinely looking for firm ground. (7) Pressure ran extremely well last start, aided by a gun ride from James McDonald, on a day where the rail was a complete monorail. JMac off and T Clark on is a negative jockey change, and the horse gets synthetic hoof filler on, so there’s a couple of queries about him today. (13) Etheridge was another that ran really well last start on a track that was impossible to make ground on. He settled near last and ran home into 5th, which I thought was a very good effort. She might be over the odds at $18. (1) Korchi is hard to beat coming off consecutive wins, but Nash Rawiller is replaced by Louise Day and the horse draws wide, so there’s a few things to overcome.
I’m really keen on (5) Peltzer here on his return to the track today. He took all before him in the Autumn, winning all three starts in convincing fashion. The form around him just stood up wherever you looked, over and over again. He’s probably the horse I’ve been looking forward to seeing most ahead of the Spring. His trial was good and if he’s tuned up and ready to go today, I think he’ll win. He beat (3) Anders back in the Autumn and Anders has won his three subsequent starts, including first up in The Rosebud, where he spanked them by 4.8L. That was on heavy ground though, and Anders has yet to win on good ground from four attempts. When he met Peltzer, that was on good ground, so that’s a box he needs to tick. (2) Doubtland has only had two starts but has been very impressive in both, including a 4.5L win in the Kindergarten Stakes in April. He’s another that’s yet to face a good track, with both wins coming on wet ground. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him come out and blow them away, but the key could be in the mounting yard. He comes into this with just one trial under his belt and there’s been a few good horses from this stable in recent weeks that have appeared as if they will improve off their first up run. (1) Mamaragan is another horse I’ve been eagerly awaiting to return. I’m convinced he should have gone very close to winning the Sires’ Produce, but he was ridden poorly. I’m not sure he’s going to be best suited first up at 1100m, it might prove a bit sharp against a few of these other horses.
There’s a good chance I could be a fair way off the mark here but I’m having a stab at (8) Prime Star. He resumed in The Rosebud behind Anders and co. and was beaten more than 20L, but he was caught three-wide the trip on a very heavy track. He ran 2nd to Holyfield last start, who is an $8 chance in a G3 today. This is a big drop in class from the race he contested first up, he gets back onto firmer footing, draws well and comes up $13. Something small on at that price. (12) Destination carries 52kg and comes out of a race behind what I think could be one or two smart horses. The map is a little bit tricky but I think she’ll go well. (4) Sangria didn’t handle the conditions first up so you’d expect her to go much better on the good track today. She started close enough to favourite first up so respect her SP. She’s just not a horse I have a great handle on and I’m not often in her corner.
When I originally looked at this field I thought (4) Overlord was rock bottom odds at $2.60, but the more I look at the race, I just think he’s a better horse than the rest of these. I think he'll get out to $3+ and will be backable odds. I firmly believe he’s a Group 1 horse – in fact, I think he should have been right in the finish in the JJ Atkins but for an ordinary steer. Prior to that he had form behind Peltzer, and I think the rest of these are G3 horses so I’m banking on the fact Overlord is simply a class above. (3) Kumasi was a big drifter in betting first up but I maintain he’s a pretty smart animal and he gets a few things in his favour today. He’ll strip fitter, steps up from 1100m to 1400m and importantly, gets back onto firm ground. I expect to see sharp improvement from him here and it would be no surprise if today he was well supported in betting. (7) Achiever next best.
Best bet of the day here with (3) Mugatoo. He resumed with an impressive win over 1500m here at Rosehill and I think he’s only going to improve with the step up to 1900m today. I suspect we’ll see him progressing onto better races further down the track. He’s won two of his three starts when second up and three of his five starts on good ground. Draws well and looks awfully hard to beat. I think his stablemate (1) Mustajeer could be the danger and a bit of value at double figure odds. He won over this track and distance first up last preparation, and then placed behind Master Of Wine and Verry Elleegant. That form looks exceptionally strong for a race like this. He’s better suited on soft ground so it may be a touch firm for him today, but even so, he looks a big price. James McDonald is booked to ride.
Value: (1) Mustajeer $9.50
(8) Subpoenaed is going to be better suited over further than this but she might just prove too classy. She won easily first up at 1400m last prep and her first up record is terrific, so I’ll bank on class – and JMac – getting her home. She should get the speed on up front to bring her into it from off the speed. (1) Wandabaa is one of the speed horses engaged and she comes off a dominant win last start. She should take no ill-effect from that and she’ll be the one they all have to run down again today. (3) Something Fast failed in two starts last pre but both were on wet tracks. He’s won five from seven on good ground so maybe a return to a firmer track will see him bounce back. (14) Tenley has had some early support and this is a race she is very well suited to. I wanted to find her and back her but her trials turned me off. I thought she was very ordinary in her recent trial so I have to oppose.
