Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Saturday, August 15th.
The Group 3 Up And Coming Stakes headlines the day's racing at Randwick, with a strong field of three-year-olds set to contest the feature. Fresh off a successful day on Friday, Tim Geers has looked at every race on the card at Randwick below!
The track is rated a heavy 9 with the rail out 11m.
Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, August 15th
Best Bet: Race 4 - (9) Torun
Best Value: Race 8 - (13) Aliferous
Interesting little race to start off with. I made (1) Dancing Gidget my best bet of the day last week but she was disappointing, dropping out to finish third-last, beaten 8L. She pulled up with a slow recovery and she did start favourite, which is worth respecting, but she comes here on the quick back-up which is very intriguing. It’s not a tactic Waller uses often and I doubt he’d be sending her to the races if she wasn’t 100%. I can’t back her off last week’s run but I am definitely wary. (3) All Saints’ Eve resumes from a spell and JMac is booked straight away for John O’Shea. The stable has about a 24% strike rate here at Randwick and JMac rides at about 25% for O’Shea. She looks like she will need every bit of 1400m but it’s a much better starting point than 1200m like she raced over first up last prep. Her form behind the likes of Positive Peace, Asiago and Shout The Bar is clearly the best in this race, but it’s whether she will be sharp enough and fit enough first up on a heavy track against race-fit mares. The other key factor is the heavy ground, which she is yet to race on. Her breeding suggests she will absolutely love the ground. I’m banking on that, along with her class, to get her over the line here. (5) Alomerheri can be forgiven for her poor run last start. She was caught wide without cover throughout on a day where it was a leaders’ highway at Kensington. She ran well prior to that and didn’t have any luck first up either. She looks the value in the race at $13.
Value: (5) Almerheri $13
(3) All Saints' Eve
$2.40
We were a matter of centimetres away from landing a $151 winner in last weekend’s Highway Handicap, and I would have been tipping a $51 pop in this week’s race, but he’s been scratched. The favourite for the race is (3) Niccirose at $3.50 which I think is a poisonous price. He led all the way to win a similar race to this by 6L last start, but that day proved to be a leaders’ highway early on in the card and he was completely blessed. He was beaten by (5) The Snooperstar two starts back, yet he’s $3.50 while The Snooperstar is $9.00. The Snooperstar failed at Rosehill two starts ago in a Highway, but he bounced back with victory on his hometrack at Scone last start. He’s drawn a good gate today and can sit right up on speed without doing any work, so he looks a major player. (8) Northern Wilderose ran 3rd in that race behind Niccirose last start. She tends to peak third up from a spell so I expect her to improve again today. (4) Girls Are Ready comes out of a BM72 at Randwick two weeks ago, where she ran 3rd to Not Feint Hearted. Badoosh has come out of that race and bolted in at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Tommy Berry replaces Mikayla Weir and the mare goes well on heavy ground. She’s drawn awkward in barrier 13 but can be very competitive in this. She goes on top at $5.50.
Value: (5) The Snooperstar $9.00
(4) Girls Are Ready
$5.50
The only query here is the heavy track first up for (7) Masked Crusader but surely he is a class above this lot. Since suffering defeat on debut at Wyong, he’s been utterly dominant in three subsequent starts. His smallest winning margin has been one length, when he should have won by four. So long as he handles the ground, he wins, and he’ll be on his way to much better races. (5) Varda as been faultless this prep, with three dominant wins of her own. She just continues to improve and she obviously handles the heavy tracks well, so if Masked Crusader isn’t at his best, she looks the obvious danger.
(7) Masked Crusader
$1.60
This is a really competitive little race but I’m pretty keen to be with (9) Torun here, who I’ve made my best bet of the day. It’s not often I tip a horse rising in grade from a maiden at Hawkesbury on a Thursday to a BM72 in town on a Saturday, but I think he’s a pretty smart colt. He was backed as if unbeatable on debut and he justified the support, bolting in by 3.75L eased down the last 50m. That was on a heavy 9 so he’ll handle the conditions with no issues here. Barrier 4 is a great draw and allows him to position wherever he’s comfortable. Brenton Avdulla rode him to victory on debut, and notably, he jumps off two other horses in the race to keep the ride on him. He rode (5) Quatum to his debut victory at Warwick Farm and he also piloted (10) Gunnamatta in both his starts to date. So the fact he sticks with Torun speaks plenty. (2) Bartley is an interesting runner, with James McDonald booked to ride first up for the Snowden stable. He competed in a couple of strong races in last prep and he’s trialled well twice leading into today. Happy to oppose (1) Best Stone who only won courtesy of an A1 ride from Nash Rawiller last start, but he is replaced by apprentice Tom Sherry today.
This looks a really suitable race for (6) Attention Run. She was a surprise winner first up over this distance at Rosehill on a heavy track, but she failed when favourite last start in the listed McKell Cup. I wasn’t surprised by that though, as her second up record is terrible – she’s never placed from four attempts. Her third up record is much better though, with a win and a 3rd placing from three starts, suggesting she can bounce back from a flat run second up. She’s a two-time winner at this distance, she likes the wet ground and so long as she’s given a good ride by Kerrin McEvoy, she should prove awfully hard to beat. (2) Taikomochi and (7) Toryjoy look the two pacesetters in the race, with Taikomochi likely to find the rail as he’s drawn inside Toryjoy. They are both racing well without winning, but if they cut each other apart up front it will set it up for those coming from off the speed. If they walk, they’ll be hard to run down. Hopefully they run it along at a good speed and allow the likes of Attention Run to come home over the top of them. (3) grey Lion is flying under the radar a bit. He didn’t get much luck behind the likes of Taikomochi last start and he should start to show something third up today. Regular rider Kathy O’Hara goes back on, replacing the apprentice.
You can leave me out of taking $2.90 for (3) Athiri here. She hasn’t won since her first ever start as a two-year-old and even though her recent trial was encouraging, there’s no way I could take that price, especially first up on a bog track. I’m not really interested in betting at all – the way I might go is just lay Athiri. They should set a pretty decent speed up front which should bring (4) Fanciful Dream into the race. She is racing really well, with a good effort behind Spaceboy followed by 0.1L defeat at the hands of (7) De Grawin last start. That day favoured those on speed and on rails, which is where De Grawin was, so Fanciful Dream’s run was even better than what it looked. De Grawin draws barrier 1 again so should just jump straight to the front and prove very hard to beat. Keeps improving with every start and is building a good little record. (6) Beach Baby is the stablemate to De Grawin and resumes from a spell. He’s an obvious winning chance.
(2) North Pacific resumed with a dominant win at Rosehill at the end of last season, an easy kill in a two-year-old race to make sure he had that next to his name on the breeding page. He settled back in the field but pounced on them impressively and put them to the sword, pulling away by 2.5L on the line. He handled the heavy ground no problems, and he is quite clearly the horse to beat again today. His only other career start was a 3rd placing to subsequent Golden Slipper winner Farnan. James McDonald takes over the reins from Koby Jennings today and from barrier 1 can position wherever he’s comfortable. Let’s hope the rail isn’t complete quicksand because with even luck he looks the winner. (3) Smart Image hasn’t done much wrong in his first two career starts. He was heavily backed and got the job done last start. McEvoy takes over for the suspended Bowman and from barrier 4 he gets a dream run. (8) Bravado can be included at double figure odds. He didn’t get a lot of luck behind Smart Image last start – in fact, they even lodged a protest – and John O’Shea has a good record at Randwick. (5) Sauvestre is another not to be underestimated, while (1) Holyfield has three wins from five starts and the stable’s Sydney operation is going very nicely. Good race but I’m tipping North Pacific has a class edge.
A bit of a dartboard job here with a full field made up largely of resuming stayers over the 1400m. The favourite (8) Man Of Peace is racing in great form but he’s had a couple of birthdays recently, with heavily biased tracks helping his cause. With that said, he’ll jump and make his own luck and he loves the heavy ground. I’m tipping one at double figures here in the form of (13) Aliferous. She doesn’t win out of turn, with just three wins from 26 starts, but she has run well first up in the past, including last prep when 2nd to what could be a superstar in Master Of Wine. She resumes with two trials under the belt today and the blinkers back on, which is a sign of intent and one that suggests to me she could be pretty forward. (16) Poetic Charmer will be competitive if he gets a start. He’s won two from three this prep and ran an unlucky 3rd on the other occasion. (1) Shared Ambition will be on a Cups path but he resumes with 3kg apprentice Tom Sherry on board from a wide gate, so he will be ridden negative and will probably need the run. He is a very classy horse though. (15) Pancho looks very short and if he firms in the market I’d be very wary.
(9) Charretera is an each way special here to close out the day, with a very heavy emphasis on the place. He’s placed in 15 of his 20 career starts but he’s won just two of those. He’s had four runs this prep and has been beaten 1.1L, 0.8L, 1L and 0.4L. He’s only ever missed a place once from 10 starts here at Randwick, he’s placed in five of his six starts on heavy ground, he draws well in barrier 3 and he should once again get absolutely every possible chance. It’s just whether he wants to put his head in front. But I’ll be going heavy on the place at around $2.30 to get something out of the race if he runs a drum. (3) Julian Rock was well thought of first up but may have been in the wrong part of the track. He trialled well leading into this prep. (7) Not Feint hearted had excuses two starts ago but bounced back in style last start. He was suited by the pattern of the day however, but the form ahs proven strong.
