Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Cranbourne on Wednesday, August 5th.
We're at Cranbourne this Wednesday for a rare midweek metro meeting, though the card does look mediocre overall. The track is rated a Soft 6 with the rail out 7m, with on-pace runners expected to be favoured.
Trent Crebbin has looked over every race on the card below!
Cranbourne Racing Tips: Wednesday, August 5th
Best Bet: Race 4 - (6) Lake’s Folly
Best Value: Race 3 - (4) Sometimesnever
Tricky race to map with a few debutants and others that haven’t showed a whole lot of pace. Maybe up to 1500m will see a few settle closer. (1) Boss’n The Moss will come across and does look hard to beat. He’s been close in all career starts and Olly jumps on here which is a huge positive. Hard to beat. The other on pace runner looks to be (7) Raging Water. This Sacred Falls gelding debuted over 1400m at Scone, weakening to finish 6th after setting a solid enough clip out in front. He might appreciate the easier tempo here and will have first use of the rail. (3) Frag beat him home last start and meets him 3kg better for doing so. Draws the inside here so could settle better than midfield, but barrier 1 at Cranbourne with the short straight can be tricky. (11) High Fashion probably brings the best form but will be near last in the run from the wide barrier and I have to risk given the predicted track pattern. I’ll be backing the two on pace runners in Boss’n The Moss and Raging Water.
Value: (7) Raging Water $21
(1) Boss'n The Moss
$2.80
Very tough with a few good chances resuming. I’m not sure what they do from barrier 13 but (11) Awkward is knocking on the door. She had no luck last start at Geelong and the winner of that race won again at Sandown Sunday. If John Allen shows intent, I think she’ll go very close, but it’s hard to know. (5) Global Wonder gets Olly first up after starting $7 in a solid race on debut behind Pioneer River, finishing 5th. One that should come across is (3) Diamonds’n’stones who is 2nd up after a good 2nd on debut behind the fit and experienced Turncoat. Dunn has to come across here and from there I think this gelding will go very close. (10) Aminatu has jumped out well for her debut run and has drawn the inside which can help inexperienced runners.
(3) Diamonds'n'stones
$7.50
(7) Emerald Crown does look the obvious here. She beat home the handy Sky Horse before a break and will be on speed from barrier 5. An interesting runner is (14) Wertheimer who comes here from a New Zealand debut. The booking of Olly intrigues me but he settled last on debut and if he’s back in the field it’ll be tough again. (11) Moving Day could possibly lead from barrier 1. Her debut behind Screenager and Monetizing was solid and both those horses have progressed significantly since then. (3) Run Walrus Run ran home very nicely on debut at $101. He was scratched from Sandown when $41 and comes up $13 here on what I think will be a leader’s track. One at huge odds that could improve is (4) Sometimesnever. He was beaten 10L on debut in a good race behind Wairere Falls and Toyetic, doing absolutely everything wrong, nearly going through the fence and hanging out for basically the entire race. It’d be a stretch to say he’s fixed those issues, but at the $91 (and likely 100s on the exchange) it’s not impossible to see him running a race. Emerald Crown and Moving Day look the favoured runners but no real interest in either at the prices so something small each way on Sometimesnever.
(4) Sometimesnever E/W
$91
Probably the race of the day, which is a bit sad because it’s still not amazing. I’ve been a fan of (6) Lake’s Folly all preparation so we’ll go through those runs. First up he bolted in on wet ground over 1200m, before running 3rd dropping in trip, running 2nd to the group class Lombardo in Adelaide and last start getting a mile back before rocketing home to just miss the leader who fell in on the line, with over 4L back to 3rd. That winner actually fell in again in this grade at Geelong last start, beating a couple handy ones. Lake’s Folly is clearly better on wet ground and there is plenty of rain predicted so it should remain quite soft. Barrier 1 is the other concern, but Neindorf won’t want a repeat of last start and can hopefully improve his position along the rail, with the step up to 1400m definitely suiting. Just needs a gap to win if the track remains wet. (4) The Great Hans will get back from the wide barrier but beat a subsequent impressive winner when first up. (2) Mr Tipla is consistent and could push forward. Backing Lake’s Folly, but happy to play later because I don’t think he’ll start far into the red.
(2) Lunar Flare is the short priced favourite here coming off two straight wins. She was the benefit of an elite Olly ride last start after settling off midfield. The draw is sticky here again. She can push forward but I’m not sure if that will eventuate. The horse she beat last start (8) Austria draws barrier one and gets 2kg off the favourite, but she’s 1 from 20 so is hardly a horse I want to back. Not sure what to do with (7) Queen Of Tarts. She looked an out and out stayer in the making, finishing strongly to win at 1600m before running on well for a distant 2nd behind Lord Bouzeron. She then stepped up to the 2400m and couldn’t finish off, albeit in a much stronger race. Back to 2000m here has to suit off that run, but she will get back in the run. (1) Clean Acheeva won first up over 1300m before two failures. She’s 2/3 when fourth up and will go forward, but she doesn’t like wet ground and has to carry 62kg. Lunar Flare the most likely winner, but she is getting up in the weights and will need some luck or more Olly magic. Hoping Kah can be positive on Queen Of Tarts who should appreciate the drop in distance and grade.
Interesting contest with the two favourites both resuming off dominant debut wins. (8) Bluest Sky sat outside the leader and beat a horse with good subsequent form in Win Fall. (9) No Frontiers’ debut was at Bairnsdale, but he won under hands and heels. The form out of the race isn’t as good and he draws wide here, but he does have early speed so may be able to get across without trouble. (10) Snap Crackle Boom and (11) Ling Ling come out of a BM70 first up. Ling Ling raced 4 wide no cover on speed and was only beaten home 0.85L by Snap Crackle Boom (who sat 3 wide no cover). Ling Ling opened favourite for that race and started $5, whereas Snap Crackle Boom started $17, so I’m not sure why Ling Ling is longer in the market here, especially when she beat a city grade mare in Finesse Tess when 2nd up last preparation. Incredibly open race but trusting the SP from last start and siding with Ling Ling.
Very wary of the resuming (9) Zende. He won easily first up in January before 2nd by a nose to Chassis, who recently won a Flemington final. Zende won a recent jumpout and should be able to find the front here. (3) Suplex City won by 4L when resuming at Moe last preparation but will be back near last from the carpark. Even with Olly booked that will be a big ask. (7) Sea Dragon faded behind Wilmot Pass first up down the straight. 2nd up last preparation he ran a narrow 3rd to the handy Overkill at The Valley. The form guide doesn’t look pretty for (1) Remastered but I think there’s a case to be made. All three runs this time in have been at 1000m, when his record at 1200m is very good. Two runs back he pulled up lame and last start he led for the first time. Up to 1200m, drawn midfield and gets a 4kg claim, he can improve big time.
Big field and very open. (14) Good And Proper ran on strongly to break her maiden at Echuca. She draws nicely here and will enjoy the 1600m. (6) Fudged led and controlled the race last start, beating the handy and unlucky Boomstock. Draws wide again here so maybe they try to emulate last start and lead, which isn’t the horse’s usual pattern. (13) Sunset Eagle plummets in grade after starting $101 against Mystery Shot last start at Caulfield. She won at this track the start before but failed at her only 1600m run. (5) Eight Times A Lady is perhaps the bombproof chance. She’ll run the trip no worries, drops in grade, handles soft ground and draws well. The best ride/most luck probably wins here, so I’ll side with the consistency in Eight Times A Lady.
(5) Eight Times A Lady
$13
