Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Cranbourne on Wednesday, July 15th.
A rare midweek meeting at Cranbourne. The track is rated a soft 7 and the rail is out 3 metres. See our full preview and betting tips for every race at Cranbourne below.
Best Bet: Race 8 (2) Grinzinger Alle
Best Value: 7 (6) Guess Again
Looks a race in two here between (2) Frederick The Dane and (8) Bombay Rocket. The former didn’t show a whole lot in a couple of good early 2yo races, but the recent jumpout was spectacular, cruising to a 6L win in fast time. He’ll look to cross for Michael Rodd and if he finds the front and replicates the jumpout he probably wins. Bombay Rocket gets 3.5kg off the favourite, with Neindorf starting to find his feet in Victoria. The horse was close up in similar races, and whilst the jumpout wasn’t as impressive it was solid under a hold. This Freedman filly looks like she’ll appreciate the wet ground and if Neindorf can follow Rodd across to sit just off the pace, she might prove too strong. Next best is (6) Mr Have A Chat for Olly/Price but at the prices I’ll side with Bombay Rocket.
Very tough (1) Cupid’s Bow is a big chance. Neindorf has ridden this SA galloper before, and the short freshen back to 1400m should suit. (3) Eclair Breeze is an interesting one, now with the Hickmott stable after taking on some handy fillies’ races in Adelaide. (5) Echo Boomer can’t quite crack a win this preparation but gets Egan back on and has good SP’s. I prefer the horse at 1400m, and her narrow 2nd to Quantum Mechanic is good enough for this. She’ll need a good ride but with a bit of luck will be in the finish. It’s not my style but you’re probably better off going each way considering her recent record reads 22223 and has never missed a place in her career. (4) Daania has to be respected. This filly started $1.35 on debut and won easily, and whilst it was at Strathalbyn, she clearly has talent. (8) Give Me Ten has claims after taking on much harder races this time in.
(3) Lunar Flare does look hard to beat as favourite. This lightly raced mare stepped up to 2100m last start and won well, although the race was completely dominated by on pace runners. Her last 200m was around a length slower than Grand De Flora’s on the same day, albeit in very different race shapes. Olly sticks and should be able to find a good spot and be too strong. (1) Tysonic is a danger 3rd up and should get a nice run from barrier 4. She was good late behind a couple of handy ones and should be peaking over the longer trip here. (8) Johandough has been racing against Persan and drops in class for this, just not sure anything outside the winner of those races is any good. (6) Tovolo Gap will appreciate the 2100m here and was dominant breaking her maiden as a $2.05 favourite last start. I’ll side with Lunar Flare because she should be able to roll forward and get a nice run.
Not sure what to do with (5) Reformist who has changed stables. Formerly with Waller, this gelding showed quite a bit of promise as a 3yo with a 3rd to subsequent derby winner Quick Thinker on heavy ground. He’s been around the mark in midweek BM70 grade since then, which is exactly what this is. The wetter the better for him, and Olly taking the ride could be a sign of intent. (4) Boomstock finally got another win last start at this T/D, coming from the back to beat (6) Brimm who sat outside the leader. It was a great ride by Kah on Boomstock, getting a lovely cart into the race and powering away. The start before he was very disappointing over 1800m, but perhaps he simply didn’t run the trip there. Barrier 1 can be tricky but even with the 2kg difference and Brimm potentially getting an easy lead, it’s hard to see a reversal in the 2.8L margin. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boomstock drift a touch too, so play late.
Really keen on one here. (11) Wairere Falls opened as much as $8 and is now into as low as $4.40. This gelding is having just his 4th start but has showed some talent. He started $1.55 on debut, running 2nd to group 3 winner Paradee. Wairere Falls resumed at Geelong and came from last to beat Toyetic, who I was very keen on last week and bolted in as an odds on pop. They put 3.5L on 3rd place there, with Wairere Falls clearly running the best sectionals of the race. He’ll eat up the 1400m on soft ground here, and from a midfield barrier won’t have to be last, having proven he can settle forward of midfield. (3) Diode is the danger and will have a head start on Wairere Falls from barrier 2. He was very good behind the very handy Wicklow Town 1st up, just getting overrun late. A repeat of that run with an easy lead will go very close, and any leader’s bias obviously helps, although there are four leader types drawn out wide that have to come across, so the pressure should be on.
Another race I’m keen to play in here, with (12) Harlem Blues piquing my interest at $5. He’s a 2yo taking on the older horses, which is a goldmine in winter. The horse resumed on synthetic, running the 3rd fastest last 200m behind Super Yulong and Impetus, who are both talented. Bayliss then opted to go forward 2nd up and sit outside the leader, and the win was never in doubt, running the fastest last 600m of the meeting in 33.62 seconds. Back up to 1200m suits, and from barrier 6 he should be able to settle in a good spot. His sire, That Song, was an absolute swimmer, winning the group 1 BTC Cup (Kingsford-Smith) by 5L over star sprinter Buffering on a heavy 9. At the $5 I think he’s a great bet. (5) Aerovictory isn’t hopeless at big odds although a wet deck might not suit. He won well first up, then ran a solid 6th in much harder company before failing last start. (7) Oxley Jack is favourite but looks short enough to me. He’s been close up all preparation but just not sure he has the upside that Harlem Blues up despite being a 7 start 3yo. He will get every favour from barrier 2 though.
Tough race at around $5 the field. I think the best form line is the Bless Her race, with (11) Vahvuus running 2nd and (10) Salty Kisses running 3rd. Vahvuus was first up and ran slightly better sectionals, but it was a swoopers race and was perhaps in a slightly better lane. Olly replaces Willo on Vahvuus so no knock there, and even though she started $71 vs Salty Kisses’ $16 I think Vahvuus has more improvement to come. She’ll probably be last so I can’t be too confident, but I’ll lean her way. I think the danger at odds could be (6) Guess Again. This mare ran 4th first up, 1.5L behind 3rd placed Salty Kisses who was 2nd up. She meets that horse 2kg better and should improve for the run. Guess Again maps beautifully from barrier 5 and loves wet ground, so any more rain should suit. Last preparation she ran a 1.8L 3rd to Mrs O’malley who is quite handy.
Value: (6) Guess Again $16.00
I’ve saved the best till last because only bad luck beats (2) Grinzinger Allee. I was pleasantly surprised to see $2.2 available for this 3yo and think he should be odds on. His last 4 runs read: 3L win, 2nd as $1.70 favourite giving handy horse 4kg, 1.8L 4th to Right You Are and a 1L 2nd to Walking Flying last start at Flemington after being well backed to start favourite. He’s drawn wide, but I much prefer that than barriers 1-3 because he should have clear air to run them down. The 2nd favourite is (5) Magazine who is a nice horse, but just notched up her 2nd career win in a Wangaratta BM58. The start before that she was beaten 4L by Walking Flying, which ties in easily. Grinzinger Alle actually looks to be crying out for 2000m. His 1600m runs have certainly suggested the trip will be no issue, and the breeding backs that up unequivocally.
(2) Grinzinger Alle
$2.20
