2015 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes
Flemington Race 7, Saturday 4:35pm
The 2015 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Group 1 over 1,000 metres has been reduced to just a field of six runners. It’s disappointing that more horses weren’t nominated – finishing in 7th (last) place would pay $10,000 in winnings – however we still have a mouth-watering clash between a couple of the world’s best sprinters.
The favourite when markets opened was the undefeated Deep Field ($2.40 at Sportingbet). A perfect record from five starts, but connections are desperate for a Group 1 victory on his resume to attract an even bigger price tag than has already been offered by breeders. His previous wins have been impressive in both G3 and G2 fields, but has yet to come up against any challengers of note and this will be his first step up to G1 level. If he wins, then we will know we have a superstar on our hands.
His main threat is Australian Horse of the Year, Lankan Rupee ($2.50 at Sportsbet) who has been backed almost into favouritism due to the weight of money from a loyal following. His form during the Autumn last year was sensational, with wins in the G1 Oakleigh Plate, Newmarket Handicap and TJ Smith at Randwick, however his Spring preparation could be considered a little flat in comparison. He scraped over the line in the Manikato, but was beaten in other starts by the likes of Angelic Light, Buffering, Terravista and Chautauqua. Those horse are proven stars, so there’s no disgrace in those results, but you get the feeling that Lankan Rupee will be nicely freshened and fancying his chances against the BC Lightning Stakes line up.
Brazen Beau ($5.50 at BetEasy) is not without a chance to upset the two favourites and should take a sit behind the hot pace out front. He did win the G1 Coolmore Stakes in the Spring but was no match for Deep Field in a recent 800m trial.
The Quarterback ($26 at Sportsbet) might be the best roughy and could offer a little value as a place chance if you’re not keen on taking the short price of the favourites. Has a good record over this distance, and will sit at the back and enjoy the fast tempo to kick late to the line.
Watermans Bay ($41 at Bet365) is a talented WA sprinter who won the 2013 Winterbottom at Ascot but looks outclassed here, while Fab Fevola ($201 at Sportsbet) will be the one out front trying to set a fast pace but simply has no hope against this quality of field.
Verdict: Clearly a race between two, but we’re going to stick with the proven Group 1 champion in Lankan Rupee ($2.50 at Sportsbet). Deep Field might be up to this but it’s a big step up so happy to risk. The Quarterback to place is a value option and would include for some value in a trifecta.
1st Lankan Rupee
2nd Deep Field
3rd The Quarterback
4th Brazen Beau
