The 2015 Cricket World Cup is upon us. There’s no doubt that the World Cup is showcase event of the game of cricket, however the one-day international format has lost its lustre in recent years with the introduction of T20s and the Big Bash in Australia.
The recent ODI tri-series didn’t hold a lot of interest, and with the 14-team World Cup set to provide many one-sided contests early in the series, there’s a concern about waning enthusiasm over a series that will span a full six weeks.
The format will pit two pools of seven teams, with everyone to play each other once. The top four from each pool will progress to quarter-finals, before the semis and final to be held at the MCG on Sunday March 29th.
We take a look at the chances of the teams and provide our recommended betting plays. With over 40 units of profits on cricket this summer, we’re looking to continue that form with a big World Cup.
We’re not going to spend time previewing each team in detail, as some teams simply have no chance of whatsoever. Some have a near zero chance to win a game, yet alone the World Cup.
Instead we’ll group the teams into categories to give an idea of where we rate each team’s chances.
The No Hopers
United Arab Emirates, Afghanistan, Scotland
Ok, maybe “No Hopers” is a little harsh, but these teams are here to make up the numbers and merely looking to get some experience under their belt. Their teams consist of many amateur players, and while they have earned their place in the tournament through qualification, when they meet the Test sides, it’s just not going to be pretty. The lop-sided contests are going to create much discussion among critics and boredom for fans, but hopefully it helps develop the game in these nations.
The Almosts
Ireland, Zimbabwe, Bangladesh
These teams are almost good enough to be competitive against the Test nations, and they might cause an upset or two, but that’s about as much as they can hope for. Bangladesh is a country full of potential and they do have a couple of strong players, including the number one ranked all-rounder Shakib Al Hasan, but their record in recent times is very poor. Zimbabwe took it up to New Zealand in a rain-interrupted warm-up game, while Ireland do have a couple of handy batsmen that are capable of doing some damage. A quarter-final spot looks unlikely.
The Lost
Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka
If this World Cup was on the sub-continent, then Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka would be favourites for victory, but such is their dislike for the hard, fast pitches of Australia and the seaming wickets of New Zealand, that their form barely warrants consideration in this tournament.
India have yet to win a game on their tour to Australia this summer, and were even bitterly disappointing against England. They certainly have some dangerous batting with the likes of Kohli, Dhawan, Raina and R Sharma, but their bowling has taken a hit with key injuries to I Sharma and Kumar. Hard to see the defending champions progressing beyond the quarter-final stages.
Sri Lanka have also been disappointing recently as they have struggled to match New Zealand in a recent series there. While Jayawardene and Sangakkara are still playing, then they are always a chance of victory, but if Malinga cannot overcome injury, their reliance on spin on hard, flat Australian wickets may be their undoing.
Pakistan are always the x-factor of any tournament. Capable of everything, nothing and everything in between. Younis Khan brings the class while Afridi and Akmal are capable of destruction. The Pakistanis will miss spinner Saeed Ajmal, leaving a massive hole in their attack.
If one of the eight established Test nations are somehow to miss the quarter-finals, it’s going to be one of these teams, but it’s likely they will reach that point of the tournament before keeling over.
The Outsiders
New Zealand, West Indies, England
These three teams are capable of raising the Cup, but they will need to play out of their skins to do so.
Many have been talking up the chances of New Zealand. There’s no doubt they are playing well, and have the advantage of playing on their home turf, in conditions that don’t suit many other teams. However I don’t know if they have the class to go all the way. There’s a reliance on Williamson and McCullum, Ronchi and Anderson are inconsistent hitters and their attack doesn’t appear threatening on flat wickets. They will win their share of games at home, but might get found out against the top teams. Certainly a chance of a semi-finals berth, but that’s as far as they can get for mine.
England might be a good smokey for this tournament. That’s a strange statement I know, when you consider their record in Australia, but they have the personnel capable of winning the big games. Bell looks rock solid at the top of the order, and I highly rate Morgan as well as wicketkeeper Butler. With the ball Anderson and Broad are experienced, while Finn looks to be hitting peak form, while Woakes took a bag in a warm-up game. I feel they are offering value and a good chance for the semis with their draw.
The West Indies are the wildcard. A dynamic team full of match winners. If only they picked Dwayne Bravo and Pollard in their squad, and Narine available for selection! Even without those guys they still feature the likes of Gayle, Samuels, Sammy, Russell and Darren Bravo who are all capable of destroying their opposition. They were humbled by England in a warm-up game, rolled for 122 in an effort described as “pathetic”. They’ll give us plenty of hits and misses, but offer a juicy price as a speculative punt that could turn into some gold.
The Contenders
Australia, South Africa
In our eyes, there’s only two genuine contenders for this World Cup.
South Africa have been the best one-day team in the world for years, but they have continually crumbled on the biggest stage in the world. The tag of chokers is one they will be desperate to rid this tournament with their first World Cup win. They have superstars throughout their squad with Amla and de Villiers the best two ODI batsmen the world who are in ridiculous form after their series against the West Indies. De Villiers’ innings of 149 from just 44 balls is just insane. Throw in Miller, Duminy, du Plessis and de Kock and they have the best batting line up in the world. They are just as devastating with the ball with Steyn, Morkel and Philander set to cause headaches for batsmen. A small weakness may be their spinner Tahir, but leg spin can sometimes be a handful of he can land a few.
The host nation Australia find themselves right in contention to win yet another World Cup crown. They are currently ranked number one, and they have beaten everything thrown at them this summer, including strong wins over England, India and South Africa at the start of the summer. Australia does have some injury concerns with captain Clarke in doubt, while Faulkner is a key finisher and currently on the side lines. Fortunately they have great depth with Smith and Mitch Marsh stepping up. Warner is a key player opening the batting, while Maxwell showed what he can do with a blistering hundred in the warm-up game against India. Did he use up his one big innings too early? He’s a confidence player so it’s good signs for the Aussies. With the ball they look super strong with Starc and Johnson leading the way, but this will be the biggest stage for youngsters Hazelwood and Cummins in support.
Pool Predictions
Pool A
Australia
New Zealand
England
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
Scotland
Pool B
South Africa
India
West Indies
Pakistan
Zimbabwe
Ireland
United Arab Emirates
Betting
Overall
This is a two-horse race, with Australia and South Africa highly likely to reach the semi-finals. Australia are short at $3.00 at Sportsbet, while the best price on South Africa is $4.00 at Sportsbet.
New Zealand are on the next line of betting at $6.25 at Luxbet, but I’d much rather take price about South Africa, or look for more value with England at $13 at Betfair or the West Indies for something more speculative at $34 at Betfair. Basically, I think the price for New Zealand doesn’t offer enough value, despite their home ground advantages.
I’m finding it hard to split the two favourites, and while I’d love to throw everything behind the Aussies, I think there’s a little more value on the Saffers. We're going to saver the Aussies as well, just to be a little more conservative. We'll also throw a spec bet on the Windies on Betfair, with the idea of laying it off mid-tournament if they happen to get their act together and cause an upset or two.
South Africa to win World Cup @$4.00 at Sportsbet (3 units)
Australia to win World Cup @$3.00 at Sportsbet (1.2 units) (saver)
West Indies to win World Cup @34 at Betfair (0.5 units)
Pool Winners
Really keen on the two favourites to win their pools, and think these are great bets. Will be gobsmacked if at least one doesn’t get up, and South Africa to win their pool looks like the best bet of the entire tournament.
Australia to win Pool A @$2.00 at Ladbrokes (5 units)
South Africa to win Pool B @$1.90 at Luxbet (5 units) (max!)
Stage of Elimination
Whoever finishes fourth in Pool A is in a world of trouble if they have to face South Africa in the quarter-finals. Assuming Australia finish on top, it leaves New Zealand, England and Sri Lanka fighting to avoid fourth. I feel Sri Lanka are the most vulnerable of those teams. If England avoid fourth, they’ll play one of the West Indies, India or Pakistan in the quarters, and will probably be favourites in those games. The two bets below are similar, so you may like to take one over the other.
Sri Lanka eliminated in Quarter Final @$2.10 at Ladbrokes (3 units)
England eliminated in Semi Final @$3.75 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Top Tournament Run scorer
It’s hard to look past the two South Africans but they are pretty short in the market. Dave Warner is also one of the favourites. It’s understandable, since finals count in these markets at most sports books. You also have to consider that some teams are likely to go bananas against the minnows, so we want someone towards the top of the order who is capable of a crazy, massive score.
Hashim Amla @$12 at Luxbet (1 unit)
Aaron Finch @$21 at Betfair (0.5 units)
Ian Bell @$24 at Betfair (0.5 units)
Quinton de Kock @$26 at Sportsbet (0.5 units)
Head-to-head Leading Run Scorers
In both cases below, we’re taking the value on players we predict will make the semi-finals and beyond against players unlikely to reach that stage of the tournament.
Ian Bell (ENG) vs Rohit Sharma (IND) @$2.00 at Luxbet (3 units)
Faf Du Plessis (SA) vs Chris Gayle (WI) @$1.95 at Luxbet (2 units)
Top Tournament Wicket Taker
Hard to find much value in this market, with the Aussie and South African quicks dominant and very difficult to pick anyone who won’t play deep into the tournament. Steven Finn is bowling really well, but we’d rather take him in heads-to-head and team markets. Overall, we’ll have a small nibble on Mitchell Starc with low confidence.
Mitchell Starc @11 at Luxbet (1 unit)
Head-to-head Wicket Takers
Steven Finn has been superb lately, and we rate him highly. His bounce and ability to hit the seam are very well suited to Australia and New Zealand conditions, so we think he is the value in the bowler’s markets.
Steven Finn (ENG) vs Mohammed Shami (IND) @$2.00 at Luxbet (3 units)
Team Most Runs
Ian Bell will carry the England batting and he relishes the conditions in Australia. Younis Khan is Pakistan's most consistent batsman over a long time, while Ed Joyce is the stand out international player in the Ireland team.
Ian Bell most runs England @$4.00 at Luxbet (3 units)
Younis Khan most runs Pakistan $5.00 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Ed Joyce leading run scorer Ireland $3.75 at Luxbet (4 units)
Team Most Wickets
Again, we're backing Steven Finn to continue his form while Shakib Al-Hasan is the best Bangladeshi bowler. He's one of the few to play some cricket in Australian conditions and he will definitely get a heavy workload.
Steven Finn most wickets England $5.50 at Luxbet (2 units)
Shakib Al-Hasan most wickets Bangladesh $3.75 at Luxbet (3 units)
* Prices correct at the time that the article was written.
