2014 Melbourne Cup
When: Tuesday November 4th, 3:00pm
Where: Flemington, Melbourne
TV Coverage: Channel 7
It’s the race that stops a nation but with the international invasion that’s come across the Spring Racing Carnival, the 2014 Melbourne Cup is arguably the race that stops the world.
Derby Day was a tough day at the office for most punters, including us! Strong winds and big fields threw up some surprise results, so hopefully we can make amends on the first Tuesday of November.
There are many strong chances for the Cup, and many outsiders in with a hope. It’s a really tricky race to tip with any confidence, but there are some strong form lines that we can follow. Don’t be afraid to go with some value in the Cup, especially with Trifectas and Quaddies as there might be some big pools about.
The favourite for the Cup is the Caulfield Cup winner Admire Rakti ($6 at BetEasy) The Japanese stayer was super impressive and has done enough to convince punters he is the one to beat. He’ll stay the trip no doubt, the question comes with the weight. A 0.5kg penalty means that he’ll carry 58.5kgs which is a weight that few have been able to overcome in the big race.
Fawkner ($11 at Palmerbet) has finished no worse than second in the three runs this preparation, and was gallant in the Cox Plate after knuckling at the start. Fawkner was sixth in this race last year after getting a long way back. You would suggest, he’ll be ridden closer to the speed this time around and will be a contender.
Protectionist ($8.50 at BetEasy) is a German stayer with an ultra-consistent record. His fourth place in the Herbert Power in his Australian debut produced some excellent closing times and he will enjoy the extra distance.
Lucia Valentina ($8 at Palmerbet) has flown a little under the radar since her brilliant win in the Turnbull. She was overshadowed by Admire Rakti in the Caulfield Cup but if you watch the run, Lucia Valentina went the widest of them all and still made up late ground on the winner. With just 53kgs on her back, she’ll enjoy the long, wide straight of Flemington to get out and hit the line hard. The question will be can she go the distance. Everything seems to suggest she can.
Signoff ($8 at Palmerbet) shot into contention with a brilliant win in the Lexus on Saturday. It was a beautiful run and everything points to him staying the full 3,200 metres. Can he back up just three days later to do it all over again?
There is some value about My Ambivalent ($51 at Bet365), the Irish mare who was withdrawn from the Caulfield Cup due to a bruised hoof. She passed a vet examination and is now set to take her place in the Melbourne Cup. The Caulfield Cup was the goal, so it will be interesting to see if it’s a blessing in disguise. She’s a Group 1 winner in England, and has several strong performances at that level. The query will be the journey as she can get feisty prerace. She’ll be on speed and if she can settle well in running, might be a sneaky outside chance of a big upset.
Verdict: It’s hard to go past the international invasion with Protectionist and Admire Rakti looking very tough to beat. However we’re going to stick with the form lines of Lucia Valentina. If she didn’t go via the carpark in the Caulfield Cup, she probably wins and the media would be talking a very different story. The wide expanses of Flemington will suit and as long as she stays, she’ll be coming home very hard late. We’re going to take the gamble on My Ambivalent settling and putting in a strong showing on the speed, while you have to respect Protectionist and Admire Rakti as savers.
1st Lucia Valentina
2nd My Ambivalenet
3rd Protectionist
4th Admire Rakti
5th Fawkner
Others to consider for exotics: Cavalryman, Seismos, Mutual Regard, Gatewood, Red Cadeaux
Take note: The above tips are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
