Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield for Blue Sapphire Stakes day on Wednesday, October 17th.
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position and we have a full preview of the meeting below!
CAULFIELD TIPS
RACE 1
Rarely keen to bet into races of this nature (staying trips early on the card) but I’m keen on the two market leaders here - #3 Valac and #5 Steel Prince. These two met back on the 12th September, where Steel Prince defeated Valac by 0.75L, but I think Valac can turn the tables today. Valac had an apprentice on board that day and swung very wide on the turn but still recorded the best sectionals in the race, and has since gone to Adelaide and won very comfortably. He gets a very small weight swing on Steel Prince from that meeting but importantly, draws well and gets James McDonald on board today. Steel Prince has also won again since in convincing fashion, carrying 60kg and overcoming a wide draw to salute by 2.25L at Mornington last start. He’s now had four starts at the distance for two wins and two 2nd placings. Looks between them and I’ll be leaning towards Valac, but will be getting a positive result on either. In terms of outlay, I wouldn’t suggest unloading because these small fields over 2400m early in the day can be very tricky, especially with multiple Weir runners in the race.
RACE 2
Three that catch the eye here. #7 Junipal bolted in by 10L on the heavy ground at Donald last start and comes straight to town, a tactic often used by Weir. Prior to that last start he ran 2nd to Mirette, who then was beaten 2.2L in the Thousand Guineas, so that form looks reasonably strong. The move back to god ground from a dominant heavy ground win is some query but he’s drawn well and the Weir factor obviously means he’s a leading chance. The other Weir runner #9 Mr Grizzle could be the value in the race at $11. He comes off a dominant win at Swan Hill and again, we often see these Weir horses measure up in town on the back of wins like that in the country. Damian Lane takes the ride from barrier 1 and it’d be no surprise to see him run well. #1 Real Success has returned in good form this preparation and should run well from the good draw.
Value: #9 Mr Grizzle $11 UBET
RACE 3
Nice race with a few chances but once again Weir holds the ace card with #7 Fifty Stars, who has been smashed into $1.80. He suffered his first defeat first up at Benalla when 2nd behind Sherriff John Stone. He carried 60kg from barrier 14 on that occasion and the 1200m wa probably a touch short for him too. Up to 1400m second up and down in weight, he should prove very hard to beat. #2 Manuel can be forgiven for last start after being trapped wide throughout. Has a big weight to carry but third up from the good draw with McEvoy on board should see him competitive. #3 Heptagon is another that is better suited today back to his home deck, while #8 So Far Sokool shouldn’t be left out. He bolted in to win the Bendigo Guineas second up last prep and two of his three career wins have come second up. I’d be including him and having something small on at $12.
Value: #8 So Far Sokool $12 UBET
RACE 4
Not a race I’m keen to bet in. #6 Al Galayel won well first up from a six week break last start over 1800m at this track and has again has three weeks off between runs, but has been kept up to the mark with a very soft trial. Back to 1700m today isn’t an issue and he should prove hard to beat once again. #1 A Shin Rook came out of a strong race first up to carry 61kg to victory second up over the mile at Flemington. Much different track today but he’s drawn well. #3 Éclair Calling won impressively last start but jumps from 1400m to 1700m and draws a touch awkwardly, so he probably won’t quite get the same run as he did last start. #5 Romancer has had three runs back from a spell now and this is about when Weir runners start finding their best form. I’d be including him at $13, while stablemate #2 Take It Intern wa very good first up in Australia behind Cliff’s Edge and is a live chance.
Value: #5 Romancer $13 Sportsbet
RACE 5
The Group 3 Blue Sapphire Stake sis the feature race of the day and is he brings his best form, #1 Written By is clearly the one to beat, as the market suggests. He returned with a solid victory over the 1000m here and now steps up to 1200m on his way to the Coolmoore Stud Stakes in a few weeks’ time. Likely to go straight to the front and be very hard to run down. #3 Performer is a horse that’s had a big spruik on him for some time but has failed to live up to the hype thus far. He was caught wide first up behind Graff before finishing down the track on the heavy surface last time out. Been back to the trials since and went very well, so it wouldn’t shock to see him finally deliver today in what looks a suitable race. #4 Tony Nicconi beat the likes of Long Leaf and Native Soldier not all that long ago and comes into this fresh off a six-week break. He can be competitive if he reproduces that form.
RACE 6
Competitive little race. #1 I Am A Star has recorded back-to-back victories, the latest of which was the G2 Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley, but she had everything to suit in that race with level weights and a track that advantaged her as a leader. She has to carry top weight today and draws wide so may have to do some work to get across. She might be vulnerable. #2 Oregon’s Day has been running in much better races than this, with her last two races at G1 level. Back in distance, back to her own sex and up to the mile. If she can get a good run from barrier 9, she’ll be hard to beat. #7 Mrs Gardenia gets a 3kg weight swing on I Am A Star from last start and draws well in barrier 6. She’s now fourth up and I think she’s a great chance to get the victory today. Even though Oregon’s Day is well suited, I have some reservations about her and the weight swing on I Am A Star gives Mrs Gardenia her chance today so she goes on top. Stablemate #4 Friar Fox was slaughtered last start in her first run for Weir. Completely forget she went around. Whether she is up to this second up remains to be seen but she started favourite last start and now comes up a $20 chance. Worth having something on. #3 Quilate, #9 Temple Of Bel and #11 Lady Of Flanders all with claims.
Value: #4 Friar Fox $20 BetEasy
RACE 7
Literally anyone’s guess here with four Weir runners in the race, three of which are making their debut for the stable. I’m sticking with #3 Trekking though, who has done nothing wrong in recent starts and looks to find another winnable race. He won pretty stylishly over this track and distance last start and from the good draw should be going very close once again. #8 Brave Song looks a solid each way chance. He was given a very odd ride from Glyn Schofield last start but picked up again to run well through the line. JMac takes over today which is a big plus. #12 Addictive Nature showed plenty of talent early in his career but went off the boil towards the end of his tenure with Bjorn Baker. Now with Weir, it’d be no shock to see him win this first up. #2 Pedrena was given a good push by Mick Price during the week and I expect her to put that disappointing campaign last time in behind her.
RACE 8
This really looks a very winnable race for #3 Lucky For All, who now gets out to 2000m third up from a spell. His best run last prep was over this distance and he’s had two runs back over the mile and 1800m in preparation for this. He’s drawn a plum barrier in 5 and if he doesn’t lay in badly like he has done in his first two runs this campaign, he should probably be winning this. #2 Danon Roman gets James McDonald booked for the ride third up today, after two good runs behind Furrion to open his preparation. #1 Laughing Heir continues to run well and is an each way chance once again.
