Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Friday night racing at Moonee Valley on October 5th!
We have an eight-race card on a Good track with the rail out 7m, so it may pay to favour those close to the speed.
Let’s hope we get a big weekend of racing off to a good start with our betting tips below!
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 #11 Interram
Best Value: Race 6 #6 Scuzi
RACE 1
Hard race to kick off with. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Tony McEvoy’s debutant #6 Still Invincible start favourite here on the back of his most recent trial, where he won by 4L. Drawn well in barrier 2 and finds a winnable race. One little concern is Tony McEvoy’s record at the Valley this season. He’s had nine runners for just one minor placing. #3 Kaplumpich is the Weir runner who comes off a defeat in the country but makes his way to metro grade regardless. He really should have won at Swan Hill first up but was snookered away on the rails the entire straight with no way clear. Drawn to get a nice enough run from barrier 6 and looks a live chance at each way odds. Moonee Valley isn’t necessarily Weir’s best track though – he’s just had the four winners from 74 starters this season. Another chance at each way odds is #9 Lianne with Damian Lane keeping the ride after a narrow defeat on debut at Sale. Didn’t get the greatest of luck on that occasion and from barrier 4 should be able to hold a prominent position. Chances don’t end there.
Value: #3 Kaplumpich $6.50 Pointsbet
#6 Still Invincible
$3.90
RACE 2
Looks to be a huge amount of speed here but if #6 Segouin can find the front without getting too much pressure she might be able to lead all the way. She’s returned in good touch this preparation and should probably be undefeated in her two runs this time in. She only comes off a BM58 win at Bairnsdale but she did it easily and finds a lot of horses simply out of form here. #10 La Pomme De Pin hasn’t quite reproduced her juvenile form which saw her win the Magic Millions at Ballarat but she was better last start and has no excuses third up tonight. The concern is the amount of speed in the race given she tends to bowl along out front. #4 Rock Hard comes out of significantly stronger races and gets a huge drop back in grade here. He’s been racing against the likes of Native Soldier and Written By in his past couple of starts so should find this much easier. If he reproduced his form from his debut campaign he’d take a world of beating. #2 Moonlight Ruby should be the one sitting off the hot tempo up front. If they go ridiculously fast then he’s the one that might charge over the top of them late.
Value: #4 Rock Hard $6.00 BetEasy
RACE 3
#7 Open The Hatch goes on top here but not with any great confidence. The form line behind Our Libretto two starts back at Sandown looks a strong one for a race like this, especially given Our Libretto has since come out and won in Saturday grade. #3 Bonville is flying and should enjoy a great run from barrier 4. The 3kg claim gets him in well at the weights and he looks a solid each way chance at $8.00 given his current form. #4 Miss Coolangatta is another racing consistently. The jump to 2000m is a legitimate query given she was racing over 1200m before one start over 1600m last time out. #9 Sydney Blue can improve third up today with the tongue tie on. Should roll to the front from barrier 9, while #6 Just Rolling has been well beaten in his past two but drops back significantly in class.
Value: #3 Bonville $8.00 Sportsbet
RACE 4
Looks a nice race for #5 Written Choice who is currently the $1.85 favourite. He was narrowly beaten by a nose first up at Ballarat by #7 Heart Conquered, but gets a 5kg weight swing on that horse today. He placed first up last prep under a big weight before dropping in weight second up at Caulfield, where he bolted in to win easily. If he takes that same sort of improvement from his first up run to his second up run tonight, he’ll win. #1 Prezado has more talent than his record suggests but the fact is he’s now only won one of his nine career starts. You can probably forgive his last run when he was caught four-wide without cover throughout and his first up run is genuine Saturday metro class, so with a softer run tonight it’d be no surprise if he could post a second win. #2 Diamond Oasis led last start which was a big change from his first two starts this campaign. Barrier 1 should see him ridden aggressively again.
RACE 5
Some tricky form lines to line up here with three horses coming into this off big maiden wins in the country. #11 Interram is the favourite after posting a 4L win at Mildura last start and the sectionals from that win have me believing she could be a good thing tonight. She ran a 22.59 final 400m in her win and if you line that up with the other two horses coming off wide-margin wins, it looks pretty solid. #9 Morrissy bolted in by 6L at Tatura over 1100m. His final 400m was run in 23.46, which was the 14th fastest of the meeting and he has to step up to 1200m tonight. #10 All A Spritz debuted with a 3L win at Echuca over 1200m. If you line up the times between All A Spritz and Interram, All A Spritz only went quicker in the first 200m of its race. Every 200m split from then on was run quicker by Interram over their respective 1200m journeys.
RACE 6
#4 Fill The Flute looks very hard to beat based on her two wins this campaign at Geelong and Morphettville. She’s won by a combined 8L and if she can jump well and find the rail here she should be able to lead all the way. The only little query is the speed of the race. #3 Alta Stellar was sound first up in Listed company and she’s undefeated from three starts at this distance. Back heavily in grade here and should get a sit behind the leaders. Is going to need luck coming around the turn. #6 Scuzi is a blowout chance at $19 and will relish the tempo.
Value: #6 Scuzi $19 Sportsbet
RACE 7
Competitive race. #4 Mahamedeis didn’t do a lot first up but he ran similarly first up last prep before winning second up at Caulfield, so expect him to improve sharply tonight. He’s got a big weight and a wide draw but he’ll go back to last and be trying to loop the field. That makes things tough for him but his form lines are very solid for a Friday night race such as this and we’re getting a good price because of the things he has to overcome. #10 Friar Fox makes her Victorian debut for Darren Weir tonight after winning four of her eight races in WA. She won the Listed Natasha Stakes over 2200m in Perth last campaign before failing as the $1.70 favourite in the WA Oaks. First up over 1600m tonight – she’s some query and I’d prefer to watch her rather than be heavily invested. Stablemate #8 Royal Ace would prefer it wet and the Good 3 may not suit him but he’s been going better than his form suggests. He had no luck two starts ago and his late sectionals in a harder race last start were good. Definitely include him.
Value: #8 Royal Ace $8.00 Sportsbet
RACE 8
#10 Double The Magic has been good in her first two runs back from a spell and the good barrier should allow her to sit right up on the speed today as opposed to out the back. The last time she drew an inside barrier, she box seated and won by 5.5L over this distance at Ballarat. #12 All Hard Wood was good resuming at Mornington over 1500m. D Oliver keeps the ride tonight and despite the recent stable change he should go close again. #5 Rebellious Lord gets a big jockey change with Jamie Mott taking over but he has to carry the full 61.5kg and draws barrier 12 so faces a tough task.
#10 Double The Magic
$4.20
