Round 18 of the 2018 AFL season gets underway Friday night with a big match between the Saints and Tigers at Etihad Stadium. WE hit on 4/8 betting tips last weekend to bounce back from a few tough weeks and we’ll be looking to improve further as we present our Round 18 betting tips for every game below.
AFL Round 18 Betting Tips
St Kilda vs Richmond (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
Click here to see our full preview and betting tips for the Friday night clash between St Kilda and Richmond here!
Collingwood vs North Melbourne (Saturday 1.45pm AEST)
The Pies had a great chance to jump to outright second on the ladder on the weekend when they faced the Eagles on Sunday afternoon. However, as its been for much of the year so far, Collingwood struggled to get it done against a top eight side, going down by 35 points at the MCG. They will be back at the G this weekend for their game against the Roos and should get a few key forwards back from injury this week. Mason Cox looks set to return after being a late out against the Eagles while Jamie Elliott was super impressive in his VFL return on the weekend, booting five goals and looks ominous to return.
North Melbourne were super competitive at Etihad on Sunday against the Swans and actually led right up until the last few minutes of the game. Unfortunately for them, the Swans kicked two late goals to take the lead and keep North Melbourne just out of the eight. They currently sit in ninth place, trailing the Cats by just percentage and the Giants by just two points. The Roos Injury list is looking pretty good at the moment. Star forward Jarrad Waite finally receiving a timeline for his injured calf but is still another month away.
Really tough match to call here. Both teams have so much to play for as the Pies continue to push for a top two spot while the Roos must win to stay in the top eight race. Collingwood start as slight favourites, but I can’t separate these two sides.
TIP: No bet
Sydney vs Gold Coast (Saturday 2.10pm AEST)
Sydney captured a great win last weekend against North Melbourne to move into the top four above Port Adelaide. Ben Ronke was fantastic once again in the win, booting five goals while Lance Franklin kicked three goals including his 900th career goal. Unfortunately for the Swans, they suffered some tough injuries in and will likely be without Dan Hannebery, Kieren Jack, Jarrad McVeigh and Sam Reid for this weekend’s clash but should get Gary Rohan back from a hamstring injury.
The Suns have now lost their last 11 games in a row after starting the season winning three of their first five and sit above only Carlton on the ladder. They were competitive for the first half of their game against Essendon on the weekend but were run over in the second half and ended up losing by 44 points. Co-Captain Tom Lynch is out with a knee injury at the moment and visited Melbourne through the week this week in an attempt to further his decision-making process on where he will play next year, which isn’t ideal at all for the Suns. The Suns will also be without a bunch of other key players through injury this weekend, leaving them 52-point underdogs for the clash.
The Swans will absolutely pulverise the Gold Coast on the weekend. With no Lynch, potentially no May along with a host of other players at the SCG where the Swans play so well, I can’t see the Suns coming close here. I expect it to be similar result to when the two teams faced off in Round 16 last year, which saw the Swans win by 67 points.
Back the in form Swans
Sydney Handicap (-52.5)
$1.92
Essendon vs Fremantle (Saturday 4.35pm AEST)
The Bombers and Fremantle both secured good wins on the weekend in an attempy to keep their top eight hopes alive. Fremantle currently sit two wins outside the eight so will need something miraculous to happen from here, but with the win, the Bombers now sit just four points behind Geelong in eight place. The Dons will likely need to win out from here, which should be tough given they play Sydney, Hawthorn, Richmond and Port Adelaide throughout the last six rounds of play.
Fremantle upset the Power at Optus Stadium on the weekend, securing a nine-point win as veteran David Mundy was best on ground with 29 touches and a goal. The win kept Fremantle’s season barely alive but with captain Nat Fyfe still on the sidelines with a hamstring injury and a tough run home that includes games against West Coast, Geelong and Collingwood, it’s extremely unlikely that they make anything happen from here.
Unsure why the Bombers are 33.5-point favourites here. They are at home and are on the back of a good win against Gold Coast, but the Dockers were super impressive against Port Adelaide on the weekend and won by 57 points last time they played at Etihad Stadium.
Dockers coming off a impressive win
Fremantle Handicap (+33.5)
$1.92
Brisbane vs Adelaide (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)
Massive game for Adelaide here as they currently sit 11th on the ladder, trailing the top eight by just four points. They could get some key players back from injury this weekend as Mitch McGovern and, Daniel Talia and Richard Douglas will all have an opportunity to prove their fitness through the week. They were fantastic against the Cats on the weekend, racking up their 2nd big win in three weeks and now get a much easier task in the Lions, albeit in Brisbane.
There’s a lot of positive signs for Lions fans at the moment. They have won their last three games on the trot and some of their youngsters are really starting to look like future AFL stars. Eric Hipwood has been fantastic over the past three games while the midfield duo of Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko continue to dominate. They have, however, beaten some fairly lacklustre teams in Fremantle and Carlton before knocking off the Hawks in Tasmania on the weekend.
The Lions have definitely earned the right to be single digit underdogs here, but the Crows are in stellar form at the moment. A loss to the Tigers was sandwiched by two great wins over Geelong and West Coast for Adelaide and I think they’ll make light work of the Lions this weekend.
Adelaide to make it two in a row
Adelaide Handicap (-8.5)
$1.92
Geelong vs Melbourne (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)
Massive game here for two top eight sides as Geelong host Melbourne down at GMHBA Stadium. The Cats have won four of their five matches in Geelong so far this year and defeated the Demons by three points at the MCG back in Round 1. They were gallant in defeat last weekend, going down to the Crows by 15 points to the Crows in Adelaide. The Cats injury list is arguably the best in the league at the moment as Harry Taylor and Mark O’Connor look set to return this weekend. Only Aaron Black and Esava Ratugolea have injuries that should keep them out of the side this week.
Melbourne were dominant against the Western Bulldogs on the weekend, winning by 50 points at the MCG as Angus Brayshaw continued his dominant form, racking up 38 touches in the win. Clayton Oliver was also great, collecting 34 touches and kicking a goal along with Jesse Hogan’s booting four goals. The Melbourne midfield, led by Oliver, Brayshaw and the best ruckman in the league, Max Gawn, should be a tough test for the star-studded Geelong midfield this weekend.
Geelong start as 8.5 point favourites here and it’s hard to bet against them down at GMHBA Stadium. They have a near full strength list to call upon and are undefeated in their last 21 games in Geelong against any team not named Sydney.
Geelong to bounce back
Geelong Handicap (-8.5)
$1.92
Carlton vs Hawthorn (Sunday 1.10pm AEST)
The Blues have gone from bad to worse over the last few weekends. They have lost their last eight games in a row and were beaten convincingly by the Saints on Friday night. Patrick Cripps was once again dominant in the loss, racking up 35 touches and kicking a goal but just couldn’t get enough help in the midfield from his teammates. The Blues kicked just 7 goals in the loss and have now failed to score 70 points since beating the Bombers in Round 8.
The Hawks were also lacklustre on the weekend, going down to the Lions at the Gabba by 33 points. They’ll welcome the return to Melbourne this weekend, despite being away from the MCG for a few more weeks. They have, however, won 18 of their last 23 games at Etihad Stadium and should nearly be at full strength this weekend with only Grant Birchall, Shaun Burgoyne and Ben McEvoy unavailable.
Hawks start as 36.5-point favourites here, which is a margin that the Blues have covered just twice in the last five games. The Blues would have fancied their chances to win their last two games against the Lions and Saints and were beaten by an average of 64.5 points over the two games. They will be deflated here, and we expect another big margin.
Carlton are a mess
Hawthorn Handicap (-36.5)
$1.92
West Coast vs Western Bulldogs (Sunday 3.20pm AEST)
The Eagles bounced back after three losses in a row to win their last two games against tough opponents in the Giants and Magpies. The return of Jack Darling and Jack Kennedy from injury coincided with the return to form, and the Eagles once again look like a genuine top four side. Tough news on the weekend, however, as ruckman Nic Naitanui suffered a season ending ACL injury. Scott Lycett becomes a super important player now as he looks set to take over the first choice ruck duties for the Eagles, who luckily boast more depth than most other teams in that position.
After their surprise win over Geelong in Round 15, the Western Bulldogs have now lost their last two games in a row. They have won just one game in their last seven and have a 56.5 average losing margin over their last two games. They are absolutely battered in the injury department but are hopeful that Hayden Crozier and Tom Boyd will return this weekend.
It’s a large 40-point line this weekend in favour of the Eagles. If the game was at Etihad, I’d usually back a gallant Dogs side to cover as they have on multiple occasions this year. However, with so many injuries at the moment, and the fact that the game is at Optus Stadium where the Eagles are 7-2 so far this year.
West Coast to dominate
West Coast Handicap (-40.5)
$1.92
Port Adelaide vs Greater Western Sydney (Sunday 4.40pm AEST)
Port Adelaide had a great opportunity to draw level with Richmond on top of the ladder on the weekend but squandered it, going down to Fremantle at Optus Stadium by 9 points. They’ll get another tough matchup this weekend as they face GWS who are in great form, coming off a massive win over the Tigers on Saturday night.
After a year of injury problems, GWS are looking as though they are going to come together just at the right time of year. Toby Greene and Adam Kennedy returned from injury on the weekend and Brett Deledio looks set to return against the Power.
Tough match to call here. Hard to like the Power after last week’s performance against the Dockers but they are back at home this weekend where they have been pretty impressive. I’m staying far away from this game.
TIP: No Bet
