Welcome to our horse racing preview for Warwick Farm on Wednesday 20 September. We have eight races on the card, with the track currently rated a Good 4.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
WARWICK FARM RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 4 Social Element
Best Value: Race 8 Cannon Run
Race 1
Waterhouse and Bott will have EPIC RANT ready to go first up but I can’t be taking $2.20. It’s trialled OK leading into today and gets the blinkers on first time here at his first start since running 3rd on debut in November last year. At the prices, I’d much rather be backing the Snowden horse and Godolphin horse that are both on debut. STAR OF AFRICA has had four trials leading into his first run today and Bowman taking the ride for the Snowdens is a positive sign. Barrier 6 is a tricky draw but they’ve got the right jockey to overcome that. I’ll be backing him at $3.80 to cover my bet on VACATE for James Cummings and Kerrin McEvoy. This horse has had two trials leading into his debut today. The first he finished a length behind the winner, and the second was a very quiet trial in which they didn’t ask him to do much at all. Cummings has his horses going particularly well in Sydney, and with eight runners in the field it means we get paid for three places, so at $6/$1.80 I’m happy to have an each way play here. MILITARY ACADEMY the blowout first up for a new stable with a trial win under his belt.
TIP: Vacate EW
Race 2
NAI’A is another on debut for Godolphin, and has two impressive trials under her belt leading into today. Her latest trial in particular was very stylish, leading all the way under a hold to beat Woman, who then came out and won on debut in very smart fashion. Expect Bowman to take her forward from the wide gate and she’ll be hard to run down. RIDICULE is another that has impressed at the trials leading into her debut. She’s drawn well in barrier 2 and the stable she represents has had a number of recent winners, so it would be no surprise to see her give this a real shake. If you don’t want to take the short odds about the two on debut, I can give a push for MEMENTO who was a big drifter first up, indicating she was probably a run short. With that run under her belt I’d expect to see sharp improvement today – and she is Group 3 placed already so the ability is clearly there.
TIP: Nai’a
Race 3
Chris Waller has the four runners engaged here and surprisingly, the one you think would have the least chance has been $14 into $4.40, and even shorter at some places. That’s KAONIC, who makes his debut after six trials dating back to February. His most recent trials have either been deliberately very quiet, or underwhelming. Schofield takes the ride and on the weight of money alone, you’d have to respect his chances. What makes the move even stranger is that Bowman has been on him in his last two trials, but rides another Waller runner in IMPROVISE here. She was solid on debut when 3rd over 1200m here, and she didn’t get the clearest of runs in the straight. Jay Ford off, Bowman on is a huge jockey change. Draws well, and you’d think Bowman would have the pick of the four rides so Improvise goes on top at $4. Kerrin McEvoy sticks with WILD ABOUT HER. She’s been close up in both starts so far and the form from her debut race has turned out to be incredibly strong. SPARKY LAD also comes through a hot race behind Brave Song, and I like the fact she’s trialled nicely since then and has had 56 days between runs. Any of the four Waller runners could win this, but I’ll stick with the obvious formula in the Bowman factor.
TIP: Improvise
Race 4
Really low race. SOCIAL ELEMENT has won his past two and there’s no reason he can’t win again here. He faces a very poor field and he should just go straight to the front and skip away from them. The only thing I can see being a factor is the 4kg weight turnaround that EXOTERIC gets. Exoteric has started to show something in his past two starts which indicates he’s nearing peak fitness and getting to distances he can be effective at. No excuses for him today – 4kg weight swing, barrier 1, fifth run back from a spell. Think he’s at a decent price now at $5 but I just don’t know if all that will be enough to chase down Social Element. Backing Social Element, saving on Exoteric. There’s also been money for ANTHONY’S BEST and MANHATTAN SON at longer odds to include in exotics.
TIP: Social Element (Best Bet)
Race 5
Two that I’m really keen on here. REGIMEN looks an outstanding chance of atoning for her last start defeat here. Although I would have liked to have seen her win that race after the scratching of Missile Coda at the barriers, she was still only beaten 0.2L. Up slightly in weight today but drawn well again, on her home track, should be very hard to beat. The clear value in the race is Chris Waller’s filly at the bottom of the weights, BELLA SUCCESS. She won well first up at Newcastle before running a luckless 3rd last start over this track and distance. She should have finished closer than she did, so with a 4-5kg weight gap on the rest of her rivals, she can go well here at $7. RED HEARTS resumes from a spell here having placed in five of her six career starts so far. She’ll be thereabouts, as will FOXY HOUSEWIFE.
TIP: Regimen / Bella Success EW
Race 6
I think there’s a chance to take on both DISSOLUTE and REALISE POTENTIAL here. Dissolute comes into this first up but he’s only ever placed once from four starts when first up from a spell. He’s obviously changed hands to James Cummings now, and his recent trial would suggest he’s tuned up, but his record makes me want to take him on at $2.60. Similarly, Realise Potential has only ever placed once from four starts at the distance. Her wins have all come over further. In her defence, she has placed in her last two starts over 1000m, but she hasn’t won in a long time. I’m with FANNING who won first up last preparation and has had the two trials leading into today. He’s got a win and three placings from five starts at the distance, and from the inside gate I’d expect him to bounce straight to the lead. $5.50 appeals. CHALK is the interesting runner and I’ll be saving on him. He won a Gosford maiden two starts back before finishing fairly close up in Listed company in Brisbane last time we saw him. First up today, can win.
TIP: Fanning
Race 7
Tough race. Interested in LEAD CHOREOGRAPHER first up for Waller and Bowman. He’s an import who had his first preparation in Australia last time in. Returns from a spell for his second prep here, which is when they generally start to show something. He’s won a trial leading into this and has won first up previously, so he may be able to do something here at $5. Also interested in the $9 available for RAISE THE LIMIT. Went down very narrowly two starts ago at Wyong and then again last start over this track and distance. He’s got a good record at the distance and these conditions aren’t too dissimilar to last start so he can go well again. ATARAXIA returned with a solid win at Newcastle but it was in maiden grade and this is a lot tougher. He can win but can go around without me. BRACES continues to be close up at the finish without much luck. They’ve been intending to ride him closer at his past two starts but he’s ended up at the back, so if he can settle closer today he can go close. Hasn’t won in a long time though.
TIP: Lead Choreographer / Raise The Limit EW
Race 8
There’s been a stack of money for Waller’s horse THE AVENGER who comes off a dominant win in a Gosford maiden. She ran 2nd to Mahalangur on debut, and that horse has since competed in Group races, so she may have a bit of ability. McEvoy takes the ride from the good gate, so she’ll get her chance, but I just can’t jump in at the price. REGENT is also short at $2.65, but at least he’s got the score on the board and comes out of a stronger race behind Screamarr. Bowman replaces Schofield, draws barrier 1 today, so he really should be winning this with all things being equal. There’s a couple at value that could run a good race. ROCKAFELLA is ready to win. Ran well last start and put the writing on the wall. Third up, up to 1400m looks suitable. Wide barrier is tricky and he’ll get back, but he’s knocking on the door and the price is good. Also think CANNON RUN can run a good race at $21. Wasn’t far away from Malahat first up and didn’t get much luck either. Won second up last preparation and the step up in trip should also suit. Looks a big price. Backing Regent and Cannon Run but Rockafella ready to win. Wary of The Avenger but can’t back.
TIP: Regent / Cannon Run EW (Best Value)
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