This month marks two years since I joined the Before You Bet team as the site's resident horse racing analyst, and it's only fitting that we approach that milestone coming off the back of one of our most successful months together in June.
Having sat down and calculated every single betting tip put up onto the site throughout the month, the statistics make for pretty good reading. Tips are provided for two meetings each Monday and two meetings each Wednesdays (Melbourne and Sydney), but the big focus is on the comprehensive previews for two metropolitan tracks each Saturday. This typically covers Melbourne and Sydney, but we sacrifice one of those meetings in order to cover a more significant meeting during carnival times in Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth.
June of course played host to the Brisbane Winter Carnival and so our Saturday previews have been covering Brisbane and Melbourne for the entire month.
In assessing the results of our tips throughout June, it is clear that the Saturday selections produce far better results and significantly greater profit than the midweeks, which hardly comes as a surprise to me.
I put this down to a few reasons:
-
Midweek racing is far more unpredictable with inferior animals and often unreliable form
-
Midweek jockeys are less reliable from a betting perspective, and simply not as good as the top riders (I'm more so talking about Mondays in the bush)
-
Less familiar tracks than the standard city tracks that we are accustomed to doing form for week in, week out
The Saturday form can also take anywhere from 4-10 hours to complete, based on field sizes, depth and the form in general, so it's no surprise that the Saturday results are significantly better.
What The Stats Say
In total, we tipped 221 horses across approximately 160 races and 20 meetings in June. This is because we often include an each-way selection along with our top selection if one stands out at value, hence more runners than races.
From those 221 runners, five were scratched, leaving us with 216 runners and a whopping 51 winners! That's a strike rate of 24% runners to winners, and a strike rate of 32% for races that we tipped the winner for.
Of course that doesn't tell the full story so let's delve deeper. The average price of the 51 winners was $5.58. Given we don't do recommended staking plans, calculating the profits was obviously going to have its flaws, but for the purpose of getting a number we can do it one of two ways:
-
A $10 stake on every single tip to win would have resulted in a total outlay of $2100, a return of $2783.50, therefore a profit of $683.50 and a Return On Investment of 32%.
-
A $10 stake on every tip to win - but $5 each way for each way selections - would have resulted in a total outlay of $2100, a return of $2562.05, therefore a profit of $462.05 and a 21% ROI.
As aforementioned, Saturdays proved far superior in terms of profit. We tipped 70 races in total on Saturdays in June, but that was brought down to 68 after two scratchings. From those 70 races, we tipped 99 horses after scratchings, with 23 winners, making it a 23% strike rate of runners to winners, and a 34% strike rate for races to winners.
Of the $683.50 profit from a $10 stake on every runner in June, $620.50 of that came from Saturday winners. For the $10 on every runner and $5 each way for each way runners, $315.50 of the $462.05 profit was from Saturday winners.
So as you can see, the Saturday selections were really what boosted the month's profit, but we were still well above water from the midweek selections too despite the figures being less glamorous.
For me, there were two clear highlights for the month, which both occurred on the same day - June 24. The first was tipping six winners from eight races at Flemington, with our best bet of the day unfortunately scratched from the last race (Samovare). Included in those winners were Overstep at $10 (and the quinella with Invincible Al), Encosta Line at $10 and Riyadh at $15. The second was over at Doomben in the Tatts Tiara, where Tycoon Tara won at $26 as one of our two selections in the race, the other being In Her Time (3rd).
You can find every winner for the month of June below, as put up on www.beforeyoubet.com.au under 'Horse Racing Tips'.
Date
|
Track
|
Selection
|
Price
|
3/06/2017
|
Doomben
|
Pardoe
|
$4.00
|
3/06/2017
|
Doomben
|
Snitty Kitty
|
$5.00
|
3/06/2017
|
Doomben
|
Egg Tart
|
$3.10
|
3/06/2017
|
Doomben
|
Bonny O'Reilly
|
$3.50
|
3/06/2017
|
Moonee Valley
|
Wanted Diva
|
$5.50
|
3/06/2017
|
Moonee Valley
|
Camdus
|
$3.50
|
3/06/2017
|
Moonee Valley
|
Gallic Chieftain
|
$3.20
|
3/06/2017
|
Moonee Valley
|
Katsuro
|
$4.50
|
5/06/2017
|
Goulburn
|
Danzie
|
$4.30
|
5/06/2017
|
Goulburn
|
Mr Tickets
|
$2.10
|
5/06/2017
|
Warrnambool
|
Mujadale
|
$2.25
|
5/06/2017
|
Warrnambool
|
The Dominator
|
$2.20
|
7/06/2017
|
Sandown
|
Invictum Domina
|
$4.60
|
7/06/2017
|
Sandown
|
Don'tbabylon
|
$7.00
|
10/07/2017
|
Doomben
|
All Over Bosanova
|
$4.40
|
10/07/2017
|
Doomben
|
Miss Gunpowder
|
$5.50
|
10/07/2017
|
Doomben
|
Religify
|
$3.80
|
10/07/2017
|
Flemington
|
Invincible Al
|
$10.00
|
14/06/2017
|
Canterbury
|
Star Galaxy
|
$3.00
|
14/06/2017
|
Canterbury
|
Reneged
|
$5.50
|
14/06/2017
|
Canterbury
|
Mana
|
$6.00
|
14/06/2017
|
Sandown
|
Mulk
|
$2.35
|
17/06/2017
|
Ipswich
|
William Wallace
|
$5.00
|
17/06/2017
|
Ipswich
|
War Baby
|
$15.00
|
17/06/2017
|
Ipswich
|
Self Sense
|
$10.00
|
21/06/2017
|
Bendigo
|
Our Mallee Hoff
|
$3.20
|
21/06/2017
|
Bendigo
|
Smokin' Bella
|
$3.10
|
21/06/2017
|
Bendigo
|
Willi Willi
|
$5.50
|
21/06/2017
|
Canterbury
|
Domed
|
$8.50
|
21/06/2017
|
Canterbury
|
Estikraaj
|
$4.20
|
21/06/2017
|
Canterbury
|
Noire
|
$2.30
|
21/06/2017
|
Canterbury
|
Philosophy
|
$3.40
|
24/06/2017
|
Doomben
|
Cruising Speed
|
$4.60
|
24/06/2017
|
Doomben
|
Tycoon Tara
|
$26.00
|
24/06/2017
|
Flemington
|
Royal Symphony
|
$2.15
|
24/06/2017
|
Flemington
|
Overstep
|
$10.00
|
24/06/2017
|
Flemington
|
Encosta Line
|
$10.00
|
24/06/2017
|
Flemington
|
Ability
|
$4.20
|
24/06/2017
|
Flemington
|
Riyadh
|
$15.00
|
24/06/2017
|
Flemington
|
Cannyescent
|
$3.10
|
26/06/2017
|
Ehuca
|
Khanmosh
|
$15.00
|
26/06/2017
|
Ehuca
|
Bellaria
|
$4.40
|
26/06/2017
|
Ehuca
|
Atlantic Fox
|
$6.00
|
26/06/2017
|
Ehuca
|
Our Gladiator
|
$4.80
|
26/06/2017
|
Wagga
|
Sweettalkingwilly
|
$3.20
|
26/06/2017
|
Wagga
|
Class Clown
|
$5.50
|
26/06/2017
|
Wagga
|
Snippet Of Gold
|
$3.80
|
28/06/2017
|
Warwick Farm
|
Noviero
|
$2.60
|
28/06/2017
|
Warwick Farm
|
Roman Son
|
$3.70
|
28/06/2017
|
Warwick Farm
|
Cosmic Engine
|
$2.80
|
28/06/2017
|
Sandown
|
Yogi
|
$2.05
|
We're off to a good start in July with all four best bets winning during the week, as well as one of our best value bets winning at double figure odds. Hopefully we can continue to record months as successful as this as we head towards the Spring Carnival!
As always, thank you for your comments and interaction on Twitter during race days, it really does make everything more enjoyable. You can find me on Twitter at @tim_tips if you're not already following.
Good luck this weekend and beyond!