The women’s semifinals played out exactly the way we wanted and will be winding back the clock for the Australian Open final on Saturday with sisters Venus and Serena Williams squaring off for the title. It got even better Friday night as Rafael Nadal defeated Gregor Dimitrov to set up arguably the best rivalry in tennis history for the Men’s Final on Sunday Night. Who would have thought, in 2017 that we'd be seeing the Williams sisters AND Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal at the same tournament. This fixture will have tennis fans around the world tuning in.
2017 Australian Open - Men's Final Preview
Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer
Nadal will face off against old time foe Roger Federer in the final, who defeated countryman Stan Wawrinka in his semi on Thursday night. Sunday night will be the 9th time the two have met in a Grand Slam final, surprisingly, Nadal leads those matches 6-2 with 4 of those wins coming at the French Open.
The two have met just once in the final of an Australian Open, in 2009 where Nadal took out an epic five-setter that lasted almost four and a half hours. Nadal can pull to within two of Federer’s record 17 grand slam wins with a victory on Sunday.
It will be tough road for Nadal though, who had to endure a five-setter against the Bulgarian Dimitrov on Friday night. Federer’s matchup also went the distance, but one would argue that is was played at a much lighter intensity than that of Nadal’s, plus Roger has the added benefit of the extra days break.
Nadal’s Road to the Aus Open Final
R1: Mayer 6-3 6-4 6-4
R2: Baghdatis 6-3 6-1 6-3
R3: Zverev 4-6 6-3 6-7 (5-7) 6-3 6-2
R4: Monfils 6-3 6-3 4-6 6-4
QF: Raonic 6-4 7-6 (9-7) 6-4
SF: Dimitrov 6-3 5-7 7-6 (7-5) 6-7 (4-7) 6-4
Both players seem to have recaptured the form that had tennis fans in awe for the better part of a decade, and it’s a welcome sight to see them squaring off in a final for possibly the last time.
It would be interesting to see where the statistical advantages would lie if it wasn’t for Nadal’s injury plagued career. While he currently sits 3 Grand Slams behind Federer, he’s done it at a much better strike rate, winning 14 from reaching the final 20 times. Federer’s strike rate is a little less impressive, with 17 wins from 27 finals.
Nadal’s head to head record also gives him the upper hand in the battle. The two have met 34 times over their storied history, with Nadal coming out victorious in 23 of them and an impressive 8 from 10 on hardcourt.
Federer’s Road to the Aus Open Final
R1: Melzer 7-5 3-6 6-2 6-2
R2: Rubin 7-5 6-3 7-6 (7-3)
R3: Berdych 6-2 6-4 6-4
R4: Nishikoiri 6-7 (4-7) 6-4 6-1 4-6 6-3
QF: Zverev 6-1 7-5 6-2
SF: Wawrinka 7-5 6-3 1-6 4-6 6-3
All the stats say that it’s Nadal’s to lose, but the fact of the matter is that these two players have been so evenly matched over their careers that it’s near impossible to predict a winner, and often it comes down to who is feeling better on the night. Their competitiveness is exemplified in the fact that 12 of their meetings have gone the max distance and 8 of their matches have lasted at least three and a half hours.
Last 5 Head-to-Head Matches
2015: ATP Basel Final – Federer 2-1
2014: Australia Open SF – Nadal 3-0
2013: ATP World Tour SF – Nadal 2-1
2013: ATP Cincinnati QF – Nadal 2-1
2013: ATP Rome Final – Nadal 2-0
2017 Men’s Final - Prediction
In such a competitive rivalry, it’s hard to pick a winner, I’m looking elsewhere for value. Both players have looked on top of their games this tournament and I like it to be a long, epic battle that goes to 5 sets.
It will be a fairytale ending for whoever comes out on top, but I think the crowd and the luck will be with Federer. At their age, the extra day’s rest is crucial, and Nadal has had a much tougher road to the final. But it’s really a toss of the coin in my opinion. It’s a matchup where you just have to go with your gut or who you like more, Pepsi or Coke, Ford or Holden, Rafa or Roger. Either way it’ll be one for the ages.
TIP: Game to go to 5 sets – $2.98 at CrownBet
Consider:
Roger Federer to win - $2.12 using CrownBet 5 Set Special
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
