Caulfield Racing: Saturday July 16 Betting Tips

More horse racing tips from Tim_Tips, this time looking at the key race at Caulfield this Saturday, July 16. 

PFD Food Services Sir John Monash Stakes 1100m - Group 3

The Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes headlines this weekend's nine race card at Caulfield.

A healthy field of 16 sprinters are set to line up over the 1100m under weight-for-age conditions, with $90,000 of the $150,000 purse going to the winner.

The Caulfield track is currently rated a Soft 5 but with minimal rain predicted in the days leading up to the race we should see that upgraded to a Good 4.

This looks a really intriguing race on paper; lets go through the runners:

FAST 'N' ROCKING: Very well suited here under weight-for-age conditions on the back of a big run behind Black Heart Bart in the Group 1 The Goodwood last start. He's been given a little freshen up leading into this but should be ready to run to his best. Good record at this track and distance, needs a Good track to win.

THE CYNIC: Big watch on this horse who makes his Australian debut after racing in Hong Kong. He wasn't at his best last preparation but his best form from previous preps would see him win this. Group 3 winner and Group 1 placed behind Peniaphobia in Hong Kong is the best form of anything in this race and he has been gelded since we last saw him. Looks huge odds so watch betting.

LORD OF THE SKY: It would take a very brave man to back this horse to win and I am not that brave, unfortunately. He is another that could win if he produced his best form but we haven't seen him run well for a long time. Comes into this first up from a spell and he's trialed very well leading into this but I'd need to see him do it in a race before I could back him.

GENERAL TRUCE: Good win two starts ago at Flemington at big odds but was just plain last start. This grade will test him under weight-for-age conditions and his record over this track and distance isn't overly inspiring.

LE BONSIR: Has struggled in his two starts so far this preparation and has tended to perform better at Moonee Valley than Caulfield. A bit of give in the track will help him but he looks up against it based on what we've seen so far this campaign.

THERMAL CURRENT: Racing well since joining the Weir stable, unsurprisingly. Recorded a strong win in the Golden Topaz at Swan Hill last start and has since won a trial. This grade looks about his limit so he will need to run to his best, but he should get every chance from barrier 4. Place chance.

WEINHOLT: First start for new trainer David Brideoake after doing a bit of racing up in Queensland. He might find the 1100m a bit sharp and generally improves with one or two runs under his belt. Group 3 level will also test him, especially under the weight conditions but he gets the blinkers back on and the market could give a good indication as to how he performs.

MIRAGE: Talented horse on his day but we haven't seen it in a long time. He was very ordinary last start and I'm not sure 1100m is his ideal distance so happy to let him go around without my money here.

TUDOR: First up from a spell and has had two trials in preparation for this. Tends to do most of his racing over 1200-1400m and his record at Caulfield isn't pretty reading (8 starts, 0 placings). He will burn across to lead from barrier 13 and it would surprise me to see him there at the end.

TREVINDER: First up from a spell and he has raced very well when fresh in the past. He's only missed a place once from five starts when first up and he's also placed at both runs over this course and distance. He will go back from barrier 15 and while this grade will test him it wouldn't surprise me to see him run well.

OLIVIER: Has been racing well in the lower grades this prep which includes two wins over this track and distance, so he deserves a crack. He is another that will be tested in this grade but his liking for this track sees him better placed than many of his opposition. Needs luck from barrier 12.

RUNSATI: Huge run first up behind Odyssey Moon who is low flying. Goes well over this distance and has two wins and a second from three starts when second up from a spell. Sure to enjoy a good run from barrier 2 and looks ready to tackle this grade. Good each way chance.

WILD RAIN: Very consistent mare who has some very good form behind good horses. Comes into this first up and while her first up record isn't great on paper, her first up run last prep suggests she can run well here. Loves the distance and she will need a little bit of luck going forward from barrier 10 but she rates highly. 

GIRL GUIDE: Big market watch. She returned to her best first up last prep behind Sheidel and she beat home Under The Louvre so the form is very strong. She didn't handle the wet track at Warrnambool so the dry track here will suit her better. If she produces her best she is an each way chance. 

ATMOSPHERICAL: First up from a spell and has won a trial leading into this. The problem is, however, that she always wins trials but that never really translates to winning form. Hasn't got the best record at Caulfield and I would be happy to watch her go around here.

KAYJAY'S JOY: Good win first up this prep at this track and distance in mares grade before a respectable run in Adelaide when she was never on the track. She's undefeated at this distance and has a great record at this track. Needs plenty of luck from barrier 16, especially against the boys in this grade, but she can go well.

Summary

Really intriguing race here with and the market will be very important to keep an eye on.

Fast 'N' Rocking appeals as a great chance back in grade at weight-for-age but he needs the track as firm as possible. His runs in Group 1 company would see him very hard to beat here. 

Runsati ran a blinder first up and appeals as a great each way chance here at big odds. Has a terrific second up record and looks the best value in the race. I had it rated at half the price it currently is.

The Cynic is easily the most interesting horse in the race. He brings Group 1 form from Hong Kong to the race which would see him win this if he were to reproduce that form. He's been gelded since last prep and it's always a query for a horse having it's first start in Australia. Still, at $34 or so he looks over the odds.

Lord Of The Sky and Girl Guide are two that have struggled to find their best form in recent times and both come into this first up from a break. If either were to produce their best form it would be good enough to be in the finish - the market will tell you what you need to know.

Wild Rain is another good hope and is extremely consistent. She needs luck but might just be good enough to win this, while Kayjays Joy and Olivier can run into a place if things go their way.

1st FAST 'N' ROCKING
2nd RUNSATI
3rd WILD RAIN
4th THE CYNIC