AFL Round 3 begins on Thursday night with an intriguing contest between Essendon and Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium. The Bombers are 0-2 in 2025 while the Power are 1-1 after defeating the rebuilding Tigers last weekend. Both clubs will be out to prove a point in the round opener, and we have provided a full match preview and betting tips below!
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Essendon vs Port Adelaide
Location: Marvel Stadium – Melbourne
Date: Thursday, 27th March
Time: 7:30pm AEDT
Odds: Essendon ($2.25) vs Port Adelaide ($1.65)
Line: Port Adelaide -4.5
Points: 180.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
Essendon and Port Adelaide clash at Marvel Stadium on Thursday night in the opening game of Round 3, with both teams looking to address their defensive frailties and find consistency early in the season. The Bombers enter the match at 0-2 following two heavy defeats, while the Power sit at 1-1, having responded to a disastrous Round 1 loss with a dominant performance last weekend. Both clubs have conceded heavily across their first two games, and with the total points line set at 180.5, the prospect of a high-scoring contest looms large.
Essendon’s start to the season has been underwhelming, suffering a 26-point defeat to Hawthorn in Round 1 before being comprehensively beaten by 61 points against Adelaide last week. Defensively, the Bombers have struggled significantly, conceding 272 points across two games, the most of any team. Their inability to defend in transition has been particularly concerning, as they rank last for scores conceded from their defensive half. Additionally, they have been highly vulnerable to turnovers, ranking dead last for scores conceded from their own errors. Despite their defensive woes, they have shown strength around the contest, ranking sixth for contested possession differential, an area they will look to exploit against a Port Adelaide side that has struggled in this department.
Port Adelaide’s form has been inconsistent, with their performances across the first two rounds being polar opposites. In Round 1, they were completely outclassed by Collingwood, suffering a 91-point defeat in a game where their defensive structure was exposed and their midfield was overwhelmed. However, they bounced back emphatically in Round 2 with a 72-point thrashing of Richmond, albeit against an opponent widely tipped to finish at the bottom of the ladder. Despite the convincing win, concerns remain about their defensive reliability, as they have conceded 204 points across two matches. Turnovers have been a significant issue for the Power, ranking third last for scores conceded from their own errors, which could be problematic against a Bombers side that looks to play fast and direct. The absence of Zak Butters has hurt their contested ball work, and they currently sit in the bottom six for contested possession differential, an area that could prove costly if not addressed.
Both teams have named debutants for this clash, with Essendon set to unveil Saad El-Hawli, a midseason recruit in 2024, while Port Adelaide will debut Tom Cochrane, who becomes the first player with Tourette syndrome to play at AFL level. Injury concerns continue to mount for both sides, with the Bombers losing Elijah Tsatas and Archie Perkins but regaining Jordan Ridley, while the Power will be without Ryan Burton, Lachie Jones, and Jack Lukosius, adding to their growing list of absentees.
Last season, Port Adelaide dominated their only meeting, winning by 69 points in Adelaide, but their two encounters in 2023 were much closer, with the Power winning by five points at home and by four points at Marvel Stadium courtesy of Dan Houston’s goal after the siren. Given both teams' defensive struggles and the high-scoring nature of their early-season matches, another shootout is likely.
Total Points Over 180.5
$1.85 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Mitch Georgiades 3+ Goals – The Bombers key defenders are horribly out of form and that bodes well for Georgiades. He kicked 4.2 last weekend and will get plenty of looks again on Thursday night.
Willie Rioli 2+ Goals – Rioli has started the season in strong form and kicked three against the Tigers last weekend. He’s good value to hit the scoreboard again here.
Sam Draper Anytime Goal Scorer – The Power have a number of injuries to defenders right now, particularly to their key backs. Draper has looked dangerous down forward in the early rounds and will get his chances again.
SGM Odds: $4.00 at BoomBet
