After a scintillating performance in Opening Round, GWS travel to the home of football to take on Melbourne. After a disappointing campaign in 2024, the Demons will be looking to bounce back up the ladder in 2025. Can the Giants continue their hot start to the season? Or will the Dees make an early season statement? We bring you our thoughts and tips below!
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Melbourne vs GWS
Location: MCG – Melbourne
Date: Sunday, 16th March
Time: 3:20pm AEDT
Odds: Melbourne ($2.05) vs GWS ($1.77)
Line: GWS -4.5
Points: 160.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
GWS were the headline act of Opening Round, storming to a 52 point win over Collingwood. Despite missing Jesse Hogan, Tom Green and Jake Stringer, the Giants ran all over the top of Collingwood in the second half, kicking seven goals to two. Despite losing contested possessions (-21), hitouts (-24), clearances (-4) and inside 50’s (-1), the Giants defence held firm and they were remarkably potent in transition.
GWS scored 64 points from their defensive half in Opening Round, for context their highest return in this score origin in 2024 was 46 points. The run from their back half was brilliant, but they have plenty of upside if they can gain the upper hand at the coalface.
Finn Callaghan (33 disposals, 2 goals), Josh Kelly (36 disposals) were prolific through the midfield. While the Giants covered the absences of Hogan and Stringer with five players kicking 2 or more goals, and ten individual goal kickers.
Melbourne come into 2025 with the majority of their best players available for selection. Kysaiah Pickett (suspension), Judd McVee (hamstring) and Jake Melksham (hamstring) are the only players from their best side that are currently out. First round draft picks Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay are expected to make their debuts.
For GWS, ruckman Kieran Briggs will miss after being concussed in the win over Collingwood. Jesse Hogan (thumb) and Jake Stringer (hamstring) are expected to miss one more game, while Tom Green is a chance to return from his calf injury if he passes a fitness test.
Melbourne’s forward line has been an issue for a long time, and is an area of the ground that looms as a concern this weekend. The Giants defence was a brick wall last week, allowing just 10.9% of Collingwood’s inside 50’s to turn into goals. Sam Taylor led the way with 13 marks and 5 tackles, as he continues to prove he is the best key defender in the competition.
The Demons ranked 12th in the AFL for goals per inside 50 last season, while the Giants ranked 3rd. The lack of efficiency has killed Melbourne since the 2021 premiership, and given that they haven’t added any pieces to their forward line this season, they’re going to need to rely on their midfield using the ball much better than they have over the last three years.
Despite Petracca and Oliver returning to the Melbourne lineup to start 2025, they face a massive challenge to turn the tide in the midfield battle in this match. GWS ranked 3rd for contested possessions, 3rd for ground ball gets and 8th for clearances in 2024. The Demons ranked 10th, 12th and 16th respectively in these statistics last season.
GWS have had the wood over Melbourne, winning three of the last four matchups between the two sides, with two of those three wins coming at the MCG. The Giants are getting better at playing at the MCG, winning three of their last four games in the venue, including winning both their trips to the ‘G last season.
The Giants potency in their front half, as well as their rock-solid defence will make them too strong for the Demons.
GWS -4.5
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
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Finn Callaghan 25+ Disposals: After catching plenty of headlines during the off-season for his contract status, Finn Callaghan let his footy do the talking in a best on ground performance against the Pies. Callaghan’s 33 disposal performance was built on a strong end to 2024, where he reached the 25 disposal mark in three of his last four games.
Clayton Oliver 25+ Disposals: The Melbourne star looks to be back at his best after two injury interrupted seasons, recording 28 disposals and kicking 3 goals in Melbourne’s pre-season fixture. Oliver has had no troubles finding the footy against the Giants picking up 26, 31 and 28 disposals in his last three games against GWS.
Toby Greene 2+ Goals: Despite having a quiet start to 2024, Toby Greene finished in hot form, kicking 2+ goals in nine of his last eleven games. Greene has given the Demons plenty of issues in recent seasons with returns of 3, 2, 3 and 5 goals in his last four games against Melbourne.
SGM Odds: $3.50 with BoomBet
