Black Friday Football provides us with an AFC West showdown, as the 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs host the 2-9 Las Vegas Raiders. With quarterback Gardner Minshew out for the season, the Raiders will turn to Aidan O’Connell, who remarkably beat the Chiefs last season as a rookie. Whilst revenge isn’t something the Chiefs will be after; they will be aware that another loss will put the Bills within touching distance of the number 1 seed in the AFC. An important matchup for both teams, and Ben Bridge has a full preview and tips for you below!
NFL Week 13 Preview & Betting Tips
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Saturday 30th November, 7:00am (AEDT)
Last Week
The Chiefs bounced back after their first loss of the season in week 11, but it wasn’t a great performance from the defending champions, as they struggled past the Carolina Panthers 30-27 on the road. Patrick Mahomes had one of his bigger statistical games of the season, throwing for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns, whilst also rushing for 60 yards. Apart from that, it was another game where the Chiefs shared the ball around, with no one standing out from a statistical standpoint.
The Raiders lost their seventh game on the trot last week, going down 29-19 to the Denver Broncos. The biggest news to come from the game was the season ending injury to quarterback Gardner Minshew, who looks set to be replaced by Aidan O’Connell. The Raiders managed to gain more yards than the Broncos, however lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a statistic that ultimately cost the team any chance at winning. With the Raiders in dire need of a franchise quarterback, tanking may be commencing from the team from sin-city, who currently hold the 3rd overall pick in next year’s draft.
Match Preview
The Chiefs and Raiders met just a month ago in Vegas, where the Chiefs went off as 9-point road favourites. The game was tight throughout, with the Raiders able to go score-for-score with the Chiefs for the most part but were never quite able to take the lead. Mahomes threw for 262 yards and 2 touchdowns, whilst Travis Kelce hauled in 10 passes for 90 yards and a score. Minshew was decent under centre for the Raiders, throwing for 209 yards and 2 touchdowns. The total closed 43.
They also met twice last year, with the Chiefs closing 9-point favourites on the road, winning 31-17, and then closing 11-point home favourites on Christmas Day, going down 20-14.
The Chiefs were 12.5-point favourites on the lookahead, and with the news of Gardner Minshew missing, popped up to 13.5-point favourites on Monday after last weekend’s games. The number pushed to as high as 14, before the news of O’Connell starting brought Raiders’ money into the market, to where they currently now sit as 13-point favourites. My numbers make the number about right, but the Chiefs have shown all year they cannot cover big spreads, going 0-4 ATS in games where they are favoured by 7 or more points. On the other side, the Raiders are 3-2 ATS when they are dogs of 7 or more, indicating the Raiders are likely the side in this game.
As for the total, it opened 43.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening 42.5. I make the total 42, however the Raiders have shown to be an overs team. Given the new quarterback, I’m hesitant to play an over, however I would lean slightly on the over in this one.
So, we will go to war with one of the worst teams in the NFL, taking on the defending champions. Let’s go!
Raiders +13.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
