The opening game on Friday in NRL Round 22 heads across the Tasman as the Warriors host the Eels. Both currently outside the Top 8, neither side has set the world alight this year. Only just hanging onto a slim chance of featuring in the Finals, the Warriors cannot afford another loss. The Eels are fighting to avoid the spoon, with every defeat increasing the chance that this could occur. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensively look at the tricky contest ahead, with the aim of finding you a winner to start your weekend off on the right note.
2024 NRL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Parramatta Eels
Go Media Stadium – Friday 2nd August – 6pm (AEST)
Match Preview
Having won just 1 of their past 5 matches, the Warriors were in desperate need of a win against the Tigers at home. Starting the match strongly, they jumped to a 14-nil lead and carried that through until HT. They allowed their opponents back into the game when the scored was narrowed to 14-12 but they were able to pull away again towards the end. Despite having 49% possession and completing at 77%, they managed to carry the ball for an average of 9.5m per carry, had 452 PCM’s and made 8 line breaks.
The Eels started strongly against the Storm and were competitive for the first 20 minutes or so. However, once their opponents kicked into another gear, they were unable to match them. Relentless pressure saw them eventually defeated 32-14. Given the superiority of their opponent, they were focussed on doing the little things well and managed this to a certain degree. With 55% possession they completed at 81% but only managed 8m per carry. Having just over 50 more PCM’s despite having 30 more carries highlighted their shortcomings. They were also outplayed defensively; they missed 32 tackles, allowed 9.8m per carry and conceded 9 line breaks. They are dangerously close to being caught in a fight to avoid the Wooden Spoon and will need a change in attitude (and execution) if they are to perform well in a challenging environment.
Match Prediction
The Warriors are strong favourites for this contest ($1.23 $4.20). Despite the Eels winning 4 of the past 5 matches between these two sides and the Warriors not defeating the Eels in New Zealand since Round 6, 2017, they are the preferred side. The home side is boosted by the return of Johnson at halfback and Nicholl-Klokstad at fullback. Johnson has a point to prove steering this team around the field after a few questionable weeks prior to his most recent injury. The Eels are unchanged from last week but are still struggling to cover the omission of Moses, with other stars failing to step up to the mark in his absence.
The season averages also support the odds; the Warriors only average slightly more points in attack (21ppg vs 19ppg), with the difference coming in defence. They allow fewer points (22ppg vs 29ppg) with the Eels having the second worst defensive record in the competition. It appears the Warriors winning this match is a forgone conclusion, with the hardest decision being settling on an investment which provides value.
The line is interestingly set at 13.5 points; the efforts of the Warriors last week in the back end of the contest, combined with the Eels opening 20 minutes against the Storm, will leave many questioning whether the home side can cover this. It is preferred to take on a smaller line, with a larger investment or using the Suggested Bet to anchor a Multi. This does overlook the fact that the average winning margin in their past 5 games is 14 points, but that is skewed by a 36-point victory by the Warriors in their most recent match (Round 19, 2023).
Warriors -6.5
$1.50 (3 Units)
Same Game Multi
Not the usual large return off a SGM but one which is worth some thought. The Warriors are the preferred selection in this contest. Each teams attacking and defensive records this year suggest a high scoring game, as does the average points total in their past 5 matches, which sits at 47.8 points. On top over that, DWZ is their leading try scorer and can find his way to the line both in the air and on the ground.
Warriors (H2H)
Total Points Over 50.5
Watene-Zelezniak to Score
SGM Odds: $3 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
