Saturday action in Round 2 of the 2024 AFL season sees three games play out across the day, with the second of those being the 4:35pm (AEDT) fixture between Hawthorn and Melbourne at the MCG. As always, we have provided our full betting preview for the clash for free right here!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Round 2 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs Melbourne
Saturday 4:35pm AEDT, March 23rd, MCG
Hawthorn went into their Round 1 clash against Essendon as a near even-money chance, but couldn’t put on enough scoreboard pressure when they had the momentum and were eventually defeated by 24 points (83-107).
Inaccuracy in front of goal was the biggest killer for the Hawks last weekend (11.17), and their easy misses were magnified by the sharpshooting of the Bombers down the other end (17.5).
The Hawks were beaten in the midfield battle for most of the day and finished up -9 in clearances (31-40), although they were able to generate more inside 50s where they were +6 (57-51).
Unfortunately, star midfielder Will Day has been ruled out for another five weeks with a foot injury as per the Official AFL Injury List, while on a positive note captain James Sicily had his one-match suspension for kicking overturned and is free to play this weekend.
After a disappointing loss to the Swans in Opening Round, Melbourne bounced back in a big way in Round 1 with a commanding 45-point win over the Bulldogs (109-64). The Demons were a little slow out of the blocks when conceding the opening two goals, but kicked 16 of the remaining 23 majors in the match to run away comfortable winners at the MCG.
The Demons vs Bulldogs midfield battle was fairly even for most of the day with the Demons having a slight edge in clearances (36-34), while both contested possessions (126-126) and inside 50s were dead even (56-56).
However, the spread from the contest which is usually a strength of the Bulldogs, was a strength of the Demons in Round 1 as they finished +23 in uncontested possessions (265-242). Clayton Oliver was fantastic with a game-high 35 disposals, and Christian Petracca (29) and Max Gawn (26) also found plenty of it.
There’s also genuine pressure for spots in this Demon outfit which is never a bad thing. Harrison Petty will be knocking on the door for a call-up after playing in the VFL last weekend, while Lachie Hunter is only 1-2 weeks away from a return.
Match prediction: The Hawks won 13 straight matches against the Demons from 2007-2016, but the tide has well and truly turned with the Demons holding an 8-2 advantage in the H2H count since. The Demons haven’t lost to the Hawks since Round 4 2018 when they were two very different looking outfits.
Moreover, these clubs met twice in 2023 and both games ended in comfortable wins for the Demons at the MCG. The first was by 54-points (103-49) and the second was by 27 points (87-60).
Considering recent meetings between these teams coupled with their performances in Round 1, it’s no surprise to see the Demons priced as the overwhelming favourites for this Saturday afternoon clash. And just as they have in their two most recent bouts, I expect the Demons to win by at least four goals.
Melbourne -23.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Melbourne to Win – For the reasons mentioned above, I’m happy to include the Demons to win in my SGM.
Jacob Van Rooyen 2+ Goals – Has kicked four goals from two games including three against the Bulldogs last weekend. He should get a favourable matchup against the decimated Hawks defence.
Bayley Fritsch 2+ Goals – Missed out last weekend when kicking 0.3 after kicking 4.1 in Opening Round. There will be plenty of goals to go around in this one and he’ll be getting amongst it.
Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals – Has not missed a beat in his return to footy. 30 touches in Opening Round and backed that up with 35 in Round 1. He’s playing with a purpose and won’t be taking the Hawks lightly.
SGM Odds: $5 at BoomBet
