We welcome Tim from Tim's Tips to the Before You Bet team as our resident horse racing expert. Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service, will know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday and throughout the spring racing season. No pressure Tim, but we look forward to cheering home plenty of winners!
Tim's first horse racing betting tips article will preview this Saturday's Bletchingly Stakes.
Race-Tech Australia Bletchingly Stakes 1200m - WFA Group 3
The last Group race of the season here which sees a quite competitive field of sprinters line up over 1200m.
SMOKIN' JOEY comes into this after a terrific win up in Brisbane where he traveled wide and got back but still proved too good in a Listed race at Ipswich. Has had a 42 day break since then so might be in need of the run, and the 1200m might just prove a touch too short for him.
LORD OF THE SKY comes up favourite in the race but he has cost punters plenty before, none more so than last start where he finished well back as the short-priced favourite in the Sir John Monash Stakes. He does hold a very commanding record at Caulfield having won 5 from 9 starts, but his inconsistency continues to haunt his backers. There is no question that if he produces his form from the TJ Smith or Goodwood that he surely wins this, but it would take a brave man to back him again after his last start.
DECIRCLES is outclassed at WFA level against this competition, and the wide draw does him no favours. He could put a bit more speed into the race but will struggle.
RICH JACK is an interesting runner and certainly not the worst hope. He has always shown good ability and won quite comfortably under a big weight here last start. Led from start to finish over this course and distance with 60.5kg on that occasion, and from the good barrier he will once again be the leader I think. Definitely a place hope.
INSPECTOR is another one that can sneak a place at a big quote. Only 3 starts back he ran 2nd over this course and distance, and actually beat Rich Jack by 0.75L on that day. Expect Inspector to be in the back half of the field, which could pose a problem from barrier 2. He's a knockout hope.
WALES has had a change of stable since we last saw him. Clearly he's had plenty of problems and comes into this 1st up from a 7 month lay off. Talented on his day but I couldn't back him.
PETROLOGY is the big runner to watch, especially going forward. He is a very talented colt from the Hayes & Dabernig yard and a winner of the Group 2 Sandown Guineas last Spring. Was disappointing during the Autumn but reports are he didn't come up as expected following a tough Spring. The stable has said he is absolutely 100% ready to go and has come back super, but the 1200m might just test him out. He is looking for 1600m+ so the 1200m fresh could be a bit sharp. The pace will suit him and he will be launching from the back of the field.
PLATINUM ROCKER is the big query runner and will give this a real shake. Comes into this first up where she has a terrific record (6:3-1-1) and also goes very well at the distance (5:2-1-1). Has previously run in Group races in WA but has now changed stable to the Hopes in Melbourne. Drawn reasonably well, Williams booked and has won a trial leading into this. Looks ready to fire fresh at a good EW quote.
NADEEM LASS is ultra consistent but is probably suited better back at Flemington rather than Caulfield, and also better suited in Handicaps rather than Weight For Age.
ANGELS BEACH ran 2nd in the Sir John Monash last start over 1100m at Caulfield. The extra 100m will definitely put her on her limit distance-wise which is my main concern for her. She has a good turn of foot on her day, and from barrier 1 I see her sitting one back on the fence getting the run of the race. Her only start at this course and distance was a win but against this quality she may be found out late.
WRITTEN DASH was the winner of the Typhoon Tracy at Moonee Valley as a $101 pop last prep and comes into this first up. Goes well fresh and has been met with a little bit of support which suggests she is going well, but hard to see her winning this.
Verdict
Prepared to bet against Lord Of The Sky here - he has had his chances. I would lean towards Angels Beach but the 1200m will test her capabilities, while the 1200m will also test out Petrology who is looking for a bit longer. Going to side with the WA mare Platinum Rocker each-way who flies fresh, while Rich Jack is another winning hope at longer odds. Inspector a blowout chance.
1st Platinum Rocker ($8.50 at Ladbrokes)
2nd Petrology ($6.50 at CrownBet)
3rd Rich Jack ($12 at Sportsbet)
4th Angels Beach ($4.60 at Ladbrokes)
* best prices accurate at time of publishing
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