The final fortnight of the home & away season is here, after Round 8 shook up the top four as the Lions and Dees picked up wins against the Crows and Roos. With 5th and 13th place on the ladder separated by just one game, it’s another massive weekend in the battle for a finals berth.
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AFLW 2023 Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs Carlton
Windy Hill, Saturday 3:05pm AEDT
Essendon squandered a golden opportunity to secure their ticket to the finals after being upset by West Coast last week. The lackluster performance from the Bombers now has them 20 points, just one game ahead of thirteenth placed Fremantle as their finals hopes are now well and truly in the balance. Essendon host Carlton who were also upset by a bottom four opponent last week, with their loss to the Giants seeing the Blues outside the top eight.
This a genuine eight point game, as the Bombers will just about secure a finals berth with a win, while the Blues will likely end the round in the top eight with a win over Essendon. Carlton’s inefficiency at both ends of the ground was the turning point in the defeat to GWS, with the Blues conceding nine goals from GWS’s 29 inside 50’s. At the other end of the ground, Carlton had ten more inside 50’s but failed to convert inside 50’s into scores. Essendon were also marred by their inability to convert, winning the inside 50 count +11, but kicking 2.7 to cost themselves a victory.
Although it was a disappointing performance against the Eagles last week, it’s difficult to look past the body of work in what Essendon has produced over the last three weeks in comparison to Carlton. Both teams have had their struggles converting inside 50’s, however the Blues backline has struggled to contain opposing sides over the last five weeks, which will give the Bombers a big advantage if they can win the midfield battle. This will be a tight encounter given the magnitude of the result, however Essendon will be too strong for an out of form Carlton.
Richmond vs Geelong
Ikon Park, Saturday 7:15pm AEDT
Another eight point game headlines Saturday night football as the eighth placed Cats take on Richmond who are in eleventh. Both sides are on sixteen points, with Richmond needing a win to keep their finals hopes alive, and Geelong needing a win to keep their spot in the top eight after a six point loss against Collingwood in Round 8. Richmond’s eleven point win over Hawthorn was unconvincing, but keeps the injury riddled Tigers in the finals hunt heading into the last fortnight of the home & away season.
Richmond needed a three goal to none final quarter to overcome fourteenth placed Hawthorn, and although they’re still a live chance to play finals, it’s clear that their depleted squad is limping to the line. Geelong’s big bodied midfield should provide the Cats with a big advantage through the middle of the ground against the out of form Tigers, and it’s going to allow their elite defence to get set up behind the ball. The Cats have conceded an average score of 35 points per game this season and have held their opposition to under five goals on five occasions this season.
Geelong have won three of their four games against the Tigers, and have held Richmond to just one goal in each of their last two meetings. Although their win last week provided much needed relief, it’s clear that the Tigers are struggling at the moment and they don’t have the depth to compete with the better sides in the competition at the moment. Geelong will be far too strong defensively for Richmond to kick a winning score, and will put an end to Richmond’s finals aspirations.
Adelaide vs North Melbourne
Norwood Oval, Sunday 3:05pm AEDT
The two losers of last week’s top four battles have a chance to bounce back as Adelaide take on North Melbourne in Norwood on Sunday afternoon. The Crows eight game winning streak was broken in a three point loss to Brisbane which saw Adelaide lose top spot on the ladder. The Kangaroos were outclassed by Melbourne in a 23 point defeat at Ikon Park, and will be looking to prove that they’re a genuine contender, given they’re yet to defeat any of the other three clubs currently placed inside the top four.
North Melbourne’s all conquering midfield was held quiet for the first time this season against Melbourne as Jasmine Garner (21 disposals) and Jenna Bruton (15) struggled to make an impact. Ash Riddell’s 15 disposal fourth quarter made the stat sheet look respectable as she finished with 31 disposals, however she wasn’t at her best when the game was up for grabs. The Roos midfield struggles saw them lose the disposal count by 21, contested possessions by 13 and inside 50’s by 11. It doesn’t get any easier for the Kangaroos midfield, who face off against Ebony Marinoff and Anne Hatchard this weekend.
Adelaide have had their way against North Melbourne, winning three of their four meetings against the Kangaroos. Although the Roos have been impressive this season, they haven’t been able to produce against the elite of the competition, and it’s difficult to see them getting a win on the road given how they performed across the final three quarters of last week. Adelaide will be ready to bounce back after their first loss of the season, and will be be desperate to keep their spot in the top two.
Adelaide -7.5
$1.87 (2 Units)
More Round 9 Tips
Gold Coast vs GWS - Heritage Bank Stadium, Friday 7:45pm AEDT
The Suns played out the first draw of the 2023 AFLW season against Port Adelaide, and it could loom as two crucial points in the finals race. The Suns have crept out of the logjam of teams on sixteen points, and get a golden opportunity to take a massive step towards securing a top eight position against the Giants. Gold Coast have won three of their last four at Heritage Bank Stadium by an average of 34 points and won’t have any issues against the Giants.
Tip: Gold Coast -14.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
Melbourne vs Fremantle - Casey Fields, Saturday 1:05pm AEDT
Melbourne regained top spot on the ladder with a convincing 23 point win over North Melbourne, and get an opportunity to further boost their percentage in hopes of securing the minor premiership. Melbourne have won their last three games against the Dockers by an average margin of 45 points, and will be too strong in the conditions at Casey Fields which they play so well.
Tip: Melbourne -44.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
St Kilda vs Brisbane - RSEA Park, Saturday 3:05pm AEDT
Brisbane ended Adelaide's unbeaten season and launched themselves back into premiership contention with a thrilling win. Brisbane will be eager to make sure they keep their momentum going in a season which they’ve struggled for consistency when they take on St Kilda. Although the Saints have won four of their last five games, three of those wins came against teams outside the top eight, and they don’t have the attacking firepower to keep up with the Lions.
Tip: Brisbane -31.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
West Coast vs Western Bulldogs - Mineral Resources Park, Saturday 5:05pm AEDT
A remarkable upset over Essendon has given the Eagles a golden opportunity to win back to back games for the first time this season, when they host the winless Bulldogs. The Dogs were played off the park in a 57 point loss to the Swans last week, with their injury list mounting to the point of having train on players making up their starting side. The Eagles will be full of confidence after a brave performance last week, and will be too good for an injury plagued Western Bulldogs.
Tip: West Coast -8.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
Sydney vs Collingwood - Henson Park, Sunday 1:05pm AEDT
The Swans and Pies face off in a game with major finals consequences, as the fifth placed Collingwood take on 10th placed Sydney. The Pies keep finding a way to get the job done, with their fourth consecutive win putting Collingwood in prime position to play finals. Collingwood defeated Sydney by 31 points last season, and will extend their winning streak to five games and all but secure a ticket to the finals.
Tip: Collingwood -11.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide - Kinetic Stadium, Sunday 5:05pm AEDT
Round 9 ends with a rare fixture with no finals implications as the Hawks take on Port Adelaide. The Power’s draw against the Suns last week, means Port have gone five games without a victory, and have a tough task against a disciplined Hawthorn side. The Hawks were unlucky to not to get over the line against Richmond, and if they produce what they did in the first three quarters last week, they will win convincingly.
Tip: Hawthorn -9.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
