NFL Week 2 concludes with a Monday Night Football (Tuesday morning AEST) double treat, with two games on the docket. First up, two NFC South teams clash as the number 1 overall pick in the draft Bryce Young will look to get his first NFL win, as the Panthers host the New Orleans Saints. Then, kicking off an hour later, an AFC North rivalry gets underway, with the 1-0 Cleveland Browns heading to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.
Below, we will dissect both matchups, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet for each game. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for all NFL Prime-Time games this season, as well as a NFL preview of the main slate on Mondays. All for free!
Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints
Bank of America Stadium, Tuesday 19th September, 9:15am (AEST)
The Panthers looked competitive during the first half in week 1, as they took on the Falcons on the road. Bryce Young lead three solid drives for the Panthers, however they only managed 10 points off the back of them and struggled mightily in the second half to get anything going. Young also threw two interceptions, with the first easy enough to shrug off as a rookie with growing pains. However, the second pick was almost a carbon copy of the first, and Young needs to start learning from his mistakes if the Panthers are going to be competitive this season. Losing the turnover battle 3-0 was too much, and despite a good effort by the defence of the Panthers, the Falcons won comfortably, 24-10.
The Saints were involved in one of the more boring games in week 1, as they took on the Titans at home. Only one touchdown was scored on the day, a 19-yard pass from Derek Carr to Rashid Shaheed deep in the 3rd quarter. Derek Carr looked solid enough, throwing for 305 yards with a touchdown and a pick, however the team struggled to put points on the board. The defence did its job, forcing 3 turnovers from a disastrous Ryan Tannehill, and it was enough to get the Saints to 1-0, winning 16-15.
As usual, these teams met twice last season, and it was the Panthers who managed to get the clean sweep over their NFC South rivals, first getting the better of the Saints 22-14 at home, before getting the better of the Saints in New Orleans 10-7. Both games were defensive battles, with the Panthers struggling to get anything going offensively in both games. Fast forward to 2023, and this once again looks like a matchup that won’t involve too much offense, and the winner will more than likely come down to who can create more turnovers on defence.
The market has lost interest in the Panthers very quickly after their performance last week against the Falcons. The Saints were favoured by 2 on the look ahead prior to week 1 games, however, re-opened -3 on Monday. Given how poor the Saints were in their week 1 victory, this can only be put down to the market downgrading the Panthers. The Saints touched -3.5, however some resistance has come in, with the market now sitting back at Saints -3. I have to say, I agree with this pushback at 3.5, as there’s no way I can get to that number. The Saints to win by more than a field goal, on the road, against a Divisional rival, seems a bit far fetched to me, and if that number comes back, I’d be jumping on it.
This total was 42 on the lookahead, and obviously came crashing down after both these teams looked horrific offensively in week 1, re-opening at 40. It has now cratered below 40 and sits around 39.5 depending on where you shop. I would very much lean towards the under here, however it’s a team total where I think I’ll butter my bread for this matchup.
Depending on where you shop, the Panthers team total currently sits in the 17-19 range. I’d be very surprised to see them score more than 17 points in this game, with their offense looking very poor in week 1. Under lights, in new Franchise quarterback Bryce Young’s first Prime Time start, I can see this Panthers offense being anaemic once again. Shop around to see what you can find, but anything under 17 or above at a price of $1.91 or better is a play for me.
Panthers (Team Total) under 18.5
$1.91 (2 units)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
Acrisure Stadium, Tuesday 19th September, 10:15am (AEST)
The Steelers were trounced in week 1, going down 30-7 at home to the 49ers. A lot of this can probably be attributed to the tremendous display from the 49ers, however, there must be concerns over the performance, particularly on offense delivered by the Steelers. The Steelers only managed 239 total yards at 3.9 yards per play, whilst QB Kenny Pickett threw 2 interceptions. The Steelers will hope to get more from their running game in week 2, with the Steelers only managing 41 rushing yards last week. Granted, they were chasing for most of the game, but they will need to be more balanced in their approach against another solid defence in the Browns.
Speaking of the Browns, they were tremendous last week defensively, limiting Joe Burrow to only 82 yards passing on 31 passing attempts, with the Bengals only managing a poultry 142 yards on offense. Myles Garrett and Zadarius Smith wreaked havoc in the backfield, with 8 quarterback hits and a sack between them. There are, however, still question marks about this team offensively, with Deshaun Watson looking a shadow of his former self, throwing for 154 yards on 16-29 (55.2%) passing. Nick Chubb did Nick Chubb things, rushing 18 times for 106 yards, whilst catching the ball 4 times out of the backfield for 21 yards. If they can click offensively, the Browns are a team to watch moving forward.
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Steelers
Anthony McFarland (RB) – OUT
Diontae Johnson (WR) – OUT
Cameron Heyward / Renell Wren (DT) – OUT
Cory Trice (CB) – OUT
Cleveland Browns
Jack Conklin / Drew Forbes (OT) – OUT
Jacob Phillips / Jordan Kunaszyk (LB) – OUT
Michael Woods II / Jakeem Grant (WR) – OUT
BoPete Keyes (CB) – OUT
Amari Cooper (WR) – Questionable
Siaki Ika (DT) – Questionable
Juan Thornhill (DB) – Questionable
Two Divisional rivals will go head-to-head for the first time this season, with the Browns playing their second divisional game already, after beating the Bengals last week. A win here for the Browns would be massive, as they’d not only be 2-0, but be 2-0 in the division.
In the two meetings last season, the teams alternated home wins, with the browns winning at home on Thursday Night Football in week 3, 29-17. They met again in week 18, with the Steelers exacting revenge in a 28-14 home win.
The favourite in this matchup has flipped, as the Steelers were 1-point favourite on the look ahead prior to week 1 games, however after the wildly different outcomes to both their week 1 matches, the Browns re-opened as 2-point favourites, and have steadily been bet up to 2.5-point road favourites, and it’s edging ever closer to 3.
I have the Steelers as slight favourites in this one, so am keeping a keen eye on this spread. If I can get Steelers +3 at $1.90 or better, I will be pulling the trigger. But, as we can only give out bets that exist now, we move on.
The total was 42.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening at 40, after both offenses struggled in week 1. Money has continued coming in on the under, and it is now all the way down to 38.5. Despite having two of the better defences in the league last season, both their matches went well over this small total of 38.5. In fact, 6 of the last 7 matchups between these teams have gone for more than 38.5 points. The Steelers should have scored more than the 7 points they managed last week, but they struggled on 3rd downs (26.7%), so if they can get better in this area, I like the Steelers to score points here.
I don’t mind the total points over, but I’ll stick with a Steelers team total over, as a bit of a compromise between an over, and believing the Steelers should be better this week. Small staking, as we get a better understanding of these teams.
Steelers (team total) over 17.5
$1.91 (1.5 units)
