Saturday in AFL Round 17 will see a four-game slate play out across four different states. Action begins in Queensland with Brisbane playing hosts to West Coast at the Gabba. It looks an extremely one-sided contest on paper, so let’s see if we can find some value in the betting markets as we present our full preview and tips below.
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AFL Round 17 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane vs West Coast
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, July 8th, Gabba
If watching an absolute bloodbath is something you’re into… this could be the game for you. Brisbane are set to host West Coast at the Gabba and the odds are about as far apart as you will ever see in the modern game. The Lions are $1.01 vs the Eagles $34, and the line has been set at a whopping 86.5 points.
Brisbane extended their current win streak to three matches with a dominant 134-53 victory against Richmond last start. They put up their highest total score of the season and reached triple figures for the first time in five weeks.
The Lions are now a perfect 8-0 at the Gabba this season and haven’t really been in danger of losing any of those matches.
West Coast entered last weekend’s match against St Kilda having lost their previous two by a combined 293 points… yes you read that correctly. Thankfully for their fans, they were able to show some spirit and a bit of fight against the Saints to go down by only eight points last weekend.
The Eagles have arguably had the worst 13-match run of any team in the AFL era. Last weekend was the first time in those 13 matches where they weren’t beaten by more than 40 points, which is just crazy stuff.
It was almost impossible to find value in this matchup from a betting perspective, so I had to get a bit creative and look at some of the player prop markets and eventually found a two-leg Same Game Multi that I’m comfortable with.
The first leg is Charlie Cameron to kick 2+ goals. He’s averaging 2.5 goals a game this season and is tough to match up on at the best of times. Who goes to him from the Eagles? I’m not sure they have anymore even remotely capable of containing him.
The second leg is Jack Gunston to kick 2+ goals and while that might seem a little strange, there’s method to my madness. Gunston dropped himself from the seniors three weeks ago due to lack of form and confidence and was expected to miss a lot more footy than three games. I believe there’s absolutely no coincidence he returns to face the basket case that is the West Coast Eagles this weekend. While the Lions have had a couple of injuries to some role players, I think it's fair to assume Chris Fagan has identified this matchup as an opportunity for Gunston to play himself into some form and we all know he’s capable of doing just that. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see his teammates force feed him at times on that same notion.
SGM: C. Cameron & J. Gunston 2+ Goals Each
$1.93 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Jack Gunston 3+ Goals – As mentioned above, I suspect the Lions will use this game to get some confidence and form back into Gunston. Happy to play right into his goal scorer markets here.
Ryan Maric – To boost the value I’ll be adding young Maric to kick a goal. He’s kicked four in his first three games and gives a decent boost to the odds.
Same Game Multi odds: $4.60
