AFL Round 12 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs North Melbourne
Sunday 4:40pm AEST, June 4th, Marvel Stadium
Essendon backed up their stunning Dreamtime win with a professional performance in Perth against West Coast. Despite missing Dylan Shiel, Darcy Parish and Will Setterfield, the Bombers led from start to finish in a 50 point win.
A six goal to two third quarter was the differentiating factor in North Melbourne’s 35 point loss against Collingwood. The Kangaroos kicked six goals of their own to peg the margin back, however the third quarter undid an amicable performance in the other three quarters.
North Melbourne get some big names back into the side this week with Tarryn Thomas selected for his first game of the season, while Liam Shiels and Darcy Tucker also return. Daniel Howe, Tom Powell, Charlie Lazzaro and Paul Curtis have all been omitted.
Essendon have dropped Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Nick Bryan, with Dylan Shiel coming back into the side after missing the last two games through injury. It will be interesting to see if Brad Scott swings a late change to get Andrew Phillips into the side as he did back in Round 4. The Bombers have played two ruckman in ten of their eleven games this season.
Essendon’s injury crisis in the midfield has opened up opportunities for their young brigade, with Jye Caldwell and Ben Hobbs taking their increased role with both hands. Zach Merrett has carried the load, however Hobbs and Caldwell have played huge roles, averaging 20 and 25 disposals respectively over the past fortnight.
North Melbourne’s biggest chance at gaining ascendancy in this clash will be through experienced ruckman Todd Goldstein. Goldstein has an excellent record against the Bombers, and with Essendon playing just one ruckman there will be questions around how Sam Draper will be able to run out four quarters as a sole ruckman.
The Kangaroos are ranked seventeenth in the competition in both scores for and scores against, it’s a statistical profile that doesn’t make for great reading. North do have plenty of talent up forward in the likes of Larkey and Zurhaar, however their defence is conceding an average score of 102 points per week. Ben McKay and Aidan Corr are seriously out of form, and need to turn it around if North are a chance to win.
Essendon have won eight straight games against North Melbourne, however this Roos side is vastly improved on the teams the Bombers have beaten in previous seasons. North Melbourne will be putting a heavy focus on their defence after last week, so expect this game to be a slow scrappy affair. With a bigger emphasis on their defence, the Kangaroos will be able to keep this fixture close on Sunday evening.
North Melbourne +32.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Nick Larkey 2+ Goals: Despite North Melbourne being seventeenth on the ladder, Nick Larkey sits fourth in the Coleman Medal. Larkey has kicked multiple goals in his last five games, and in his last two games against Essendon has kicked 3.2 and 0.3. He always creates opportunities against the Bombers, and could be in for a big day if he converts.
Nic Martin 25+ Disposals: Nic Martin might just be the most underrated player in the competition, the Bombers SSP selection last season is the number ranked wingman in the competition by Champion Data. Martin backed up a 26 disposal performance in Dreamtime at the G with a career high 31 disposals against West Coast.
Zach Merret 30+ Disposals: With Parish, Shiel and Setterfield out, the Essendon skipper has put his side on his back with 39 and 32 disposal performances across the last two weeks. Merrett has absolutely dominated North Melbourne across his career, excluding shortened quarters in 2020, Merrett has picked up 38, 39, 31, 34, 32, 33 and 36 disposals in his last seven games against the Roos.
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