The second match to get underway on AFL Super Saturday in Round 11 is Melbourne vs Fremantle. The Dockers will be eyeing off another scalp to continue their resurgence, but whether or not they can get the job done remains to be seen. As always, we bring you our free preview and betting strategy for the clash.
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AFL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Fremantle
Saturday 2:10pm AEST, May 27th, MCG
Melbourne and Fremantle looked to be worlds apart on form and season aspirations a couple of weeks ago, but will meet in Round 11 separated by just two wins on the ladder.
They secure the 2:10pm (AEST) time slot on Saturday afternoon in what will be a gloomy although potentially dry day at the MCG.
This will be Fremantle’s first opportunity to play at the MCG this season, and they’ll only return two more times in 2023 (R18 vs Coll, R24 vs Haw) unless they make the top eight and play there in finals.
Melbourne will be keen to get back to the ‘G this weekend after playing in front of a hostile Adelaide Oval crowd last weekend. They were beaten at the death by the determined Power in what was arguably the match of the season to date.
The Demons only played one genuinely top-class quarter of footy in the narrow loss, so to go down by just four points was a strong effort, particularly in those conditions.
However, the Demons have now lost both matches against fellow current top four sides, which is a slight cause of concern for Simon Goodwin.
Also cause for concern is the fact they’ll now be without superstar midfielder Clayton Oliver for the short-term after recent scans showed he suffered a hamstring injury during the third quarter of their recent loss.
Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir will be quietly pleased Clarry will be missing this matchup, as his side’s young midfield is now less likely to be overpowered by the Demons engine room, which has some of the bigger bodies in the competition.
Longmuir will also be pleased with Fremantle’s recent form, which has seen them win three on the spin and get back to even on the season ledger with five wins and five losses.
In recent years, registering back-to-back wins against the Swans and the Cats has usually meant your team is absolutely flying, but when you consider those sides have a combined 9-11 record in 2023, maybe the Dockers form is a touch deceiving.
Defeating the Demons on their home deck would obviously frank their recent form, but I’m not prepared to back them in to do that or even cover the three-goal spread at this stage.
The Dockers still need to prove themselves against one of the better form teams in the competition, especially away from home, before we can say they’ve truly turned the corner this season.
Without such a win on their resume this campaign, I can’t justify their odds being as short as $3 and am willing to back against them and take the Demons to cover the spread.
Melbourne -18.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Kysaiah Pickett 2+ Goals – His defensive assignment is likely Brandon Walker and I just don’t like that from a Freo perspective. Walker often gets exposed in 1v1 battles against high IQ players and that plays right into the hands of someone of Pickett’s quality.
Jack Viney 25+ Disposals – Averages just under 25 for the season but will likely get a more attacking role at centre bounces without Oliver in the side. I expect him to naturally get more opportunity and more disposals here.
Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals – The Demons will need Trac in the guts more in Oliver’s absence. He goes straight in my SGM for 25 touches.
Same Game Multi odds - $3.50
