Three games on Sunday to complete Magic Round, and as always, the team at Before You Bet have you covered. Below, we will preview each game and break them down to find our Best Bets for each. Let’s close out Magic Round with a nice little profit, shall we?
NRL Round 10 Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
Wests Tigers vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 7th May, 1:50pm (AEST)
The Tigers snapped their 273-day losing streak, by beating the Panthers in a great display by a team that hadn’t won all season. The conditions were horrendous, with rain pouring from the off in Bathurst. It didn’t hinder the Tigers, who completed 90% of their sets, to run out 12-8 winners. It wasn’t a fluke, as the Tigers dominated much of the contest, and thoroughly deserved their victory. The question now is, can they back it up?
The Dragons would have come away from last week’s loss to the Bulldogs wondering what they’ve got to do to get a win. They’ve lost their past 4 games by a combined total of just 11 points. They are in every game, but can’t seem to get the chocolates after 80 minutes. The stats were tight in the matchup, with the biggest contrast being the 7 line-breaks made by the Bulldogs, to just 3 made by the Dragons. They need a win, and they need it fast.
Big moves in the market here, with the Dragons 4.5-point favourites before the Tigers big win over the Panthers last week. The number has now come into basically a pick em’, with the line sitting at a juiced +1.5 for the Tigers. Whilst I can’t say I disagree with this move, as the number now sits right on mine, it doesn’t make handicapping this game any easier. Both teams struggle to get the job done when it matters, which leads me to believe this should be a tight contest that may well come down to the final 10 minutes.
I like the under in this one, with the Tigers hitting their under at a 62.5% clip, whilst the Dragons have hit the under in 3 of their past 4 games. With both teams having a great deal on the line, this could be a tight contest from start to finish. I am a little concerned with the history of totals on Sunday during Magic Round, as outlined below, so just small staking for the total.
Other Bet
Under 44.5 total points - $1.91 @ Bet365 (1u)
Either by less than 10.5 points
$1.87 (2 Units)
Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys
Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 7th May, 4:00pm (AEST)
The Roosters looked secure in defence last week, in what were trying conditions for both attacks at Mt. Smart Stadium. The Roosters won 14-0, and keeping the Warriors scoreless was a tremendous effort and one that should put the Roosters back on the map of Premiership threats this season. Whilst their attack hasn’t quite hummed to start the season, if they can get their defence back to the Roosters of old, they will be tough to beat once their attack inevitably clicks.
The Cowboys were embarrassed last week, going down 44-6 to the Sharks on Thursday night, in a game that has most pundits ready to put a line through last season’s prelim finalists. The Cowboys were beaten from pillar to post, with the Sharks outgaining the Cowboys 1913-1307, 7 line-breaks to 3, all whilst the Cowboys missed 38 tackles and gave away 8 penalties to 2. Everything needs to improve this week if they are to stay within 30 of the Roosters.
It’s hard to see the Cowboys turning things around here. It’s been 9 weeks of disappointing play from the Cowboys, and this is enough of a sample size to say the Cowboys just aren’t what they were a year ago. A quick look at the market will show many are in agreeance, with the Roosters sitting as 7.5-point favourites prior to last weekend’s games, with the number now sitting between 11.5 and 12.5.
I agree with this move, with my difference between these teams 12 points, meaning I don’t believe there’s much value in the line at this point in the week. If you got on the chooks early, you got some nice closing line value and you should be confident in a Roosters cover. So, if I’m not looking at the line, where am I looking?
The total seems a tad high, however I’m concerned of another Cowboys blowout loss, which could have the Roosters giving the total a shake by themselves. So, I’ll look towards the Cowboys and their total, which you can find anywhere from 12.5 to 16. The Cowboys attack has been horrible this season, and they currently sit with the 2nd least points per game scored at a touch over 16. Meanwhile, the Roosters concede the 5th least points per game (19.25), and I see them wanting to back up last week’s display against the Cowboys. Cowboys team total unders is the play here.
Cowboys (Team Total) under 16
$1.76 (2 Units)
Gold Coast Titans vs Parramatta Eels
Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 7th May, 6:25pm (AEST)
The Titans were great last week, as they kept up their consistently inconsistent form, moving to 4 wins and 4 losses on the season. As mentioned earlier, they came into the match as heavy underdogs, but controlled the game well against the Sea Eagles. Now they must win back-to-back matches, something they’ve only done on one occasion in the past two years, and it won’t be easy against an Eels side that seems to be discovering it’s mojo.
Speaking of the Eels, they are coming off one of their better performances this season, as they easily accounted for the Knights at CommBank Stadium last Friday night. It was a Mitch Moses and Dylan Brown masterclass, as the Eels ran out 43-12 winners, in a 7 tries to 2 demolition. Brad Arthur would still be a little concerned about the 67% completion rate, however they were helped in this one with a poor 64% completion percentage by the Knights. The Eels need to lift this part of their game if they wish to push on towards the top 8.
The Eels opened 6.5-point favourites before their performance last week, with the number now pushing 7.5. My numbers suggest there is small value on the Eels, however I don’t know how much I can trust them away from home. So far in their games away from CommBank this season, they have lost to the Sea Eagles, Roosters, and Broncos, with their solitary win away from CommBank being against the lowly Tigers. It makes it hard to take the Eels with any confidence, and a look at the total could be a better way to attack this matchup.
This game is the highest total of the season, tied with 3 other matches. All matches with a total of 47.5 this season have been games involving the Titans, go figure. The Titans currently average the 6th most points per game, whilst conceding the 2nd most points per game. Meanwhile, the Eels score the 3rd most points per game, whilst conceding the 9th most.
I was concerned that this game being the last of Magic Round on a chewed-up surface might lend itself to less points, but if we look back the past couple of seasons, high scoring is the norm on Sundays at Magic Round. Over 3 games last year on Sunday, the games averaged 47.67 points per game. Go back a year earlier, and the Sunday games averaged a whopping 58 points per game. The only other season of Magic Round was held in 2019, with just the 2 Sunday afternoon games. These games averaged 56 points per game, with both totalling over 50.
Finally, these teams met twice last season. In round 1, the Eels prevailed 32-28 (60), before getting by the Titans on the Gold Coast in round 5 26-20 (46), for an average of 53 points per game. I like the total here, and would lean the Eels to cover if they can complete their sets at a 75% clip.
Over 46.5 total points
$1.91 (2 Units)
