AFL Round 6 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Richmond
Monday 7:25pm AEST, April 24th, MCG
Melbourne were outplayed from start to finish in a 27 point defeat against Essendon in Gather Round, but will have some strong reinforcements for the Anzac Day eve clash. Max Gawn, Jake Lever and Michael Hibberd are all set to return, with Charlie Spargo (concussion), Tom McDonald (omitted), Adam Tomlinson (omitted) and Jake Melksham (omitted) the outs for this week.
Richmond will welcome back Jayden Short for his first game of the season, with Hugo Ralphsmith and Tyler Sonsie omitted from the starting 22. The Tigers are still without Tom Lynch (foot), Toby Nankervis (ankle), Nathan Broad (suspension), Robbie Tarrant (hip) and Josh Gibcus (hamstring), which has seen their key position stocks completely decimated.
The Tigers were brave for the first three quarters, however an equally undermanned Sydney side ran over the top of them to hand Richmond a 44 point loss. Richmond have lost three consecutive games to fall to fifteenth place on the ladder. It’s been a disastrous result given the Tigers don’t possess their first or second round picks this season, after bringing in Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper.
Despite the loss last week, Melbourne’s football has stacked up well to start this season, imposing themselves a premiership contender once again. The Demons are the highest scoring side in the competition, and rank first for tackles and fourth for inside 50’s.
Richmond have struggled to get their iconic forward handball territory brand of football going this season. The Tigers rank fourteenth for clearances, twelfth for inside 50’s which has seen Richmond score the fourth fewest points of any side this season. With the inclusions into Richmond’s midfield, it’s been a surprise that the Tigers haven’t made improvements in the centre of the ground.
The challenge against a star studded Melbourne midfield looms as the key difference between the two sides. Oliver, Petracca and Viney will be giving Richmond plenty of headaches, especially when they’re getting first use from Gawn and Grundy. Toby Nankervis will be sorely missed for the Tigers in this fixture.
With Gawn and Lever back, Melbourne will be much stronger in the back half of the ground, after conceding 100 points for just the second time since 2019 last week.
Melbourne have won the last two encounters between the two sides by margins of 22 and 34 points, with last year’s 22 point margin humbling the Tigers as the Dees kicked 9.22. With the dominance Melbourne will have in the centre of the ground, and the key outs for Richmond, this should be a comfortable victory for the Demons.
Melbourne -23.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals: Even after a quiet three quarters Clayton Oliver produced a 20 disposal fourth quarter last week against the Bombers. It wasn’t his most influential game but Oliver always finds a way to win the footy. Oliver has hit the 30 disposal mark in four of his five games this season, and is second in the league for disposals.
Tim Taranto 25+ Disposals: Tim Taranto has been a shining light in a disappointing 2023 for Richmond. The star recruit is averaging 30 disposals per game, with returns of 32, 28, 29, 27 and 34 disposals.
Kysaiah Pickett 2+ Goals: Kozy Pickett has been in scintillating form this season, kicking multiple goals in all three of his games this season. With eight goals from three games, Pickett is beginning to push his case as one of the best small forwards in the competition. After Tom Papley kicked six last week, Richmond’s defence will once again be tested by a star small forward.
Jacob Van Rooyen Anytime Goalscorer: Demons fans were crying out for Van Rooyen to be selected for a long time, and he has delivered since coming into the side. Van Rooyen has kicked six goals from his three games, and has hit the scoreboard in every game he has played.
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