AFL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Geelong vs Hawthorn
Monday 3:20pm AEST, April 9th, MCG
After a shock defeat to the previously winless Gold Coast, Geelong have become just the fourth reigning premier in V/AFL history to start a season 0-3. The pressure is right on the Cats, who have looked slow and disjointed, and can’t afford any more slip ups if they’re to play finals in 2023.
Geelong have brought in Jake Kolodjashnij, Mitch Duncan, Rhys Stanley and Brandon Parfitt to their extended squad, with Sam De Koning (concussion) the only confirmed omission at this stage.
Hawthorn bounced back after a horror start to the season, with a gritty nineteen point win over North Melbourne. The Hawks jumped out of the blocks to lead by 32 points, before withstanding a late surge from the Kangaroos, to pick up their first victory of the season.
The Hawks have bolstered their extending squad with the inclusions of Chad Wingard, Jacob Koschitzke and James Blanck. Wingard looks set to return after injuring his calf in the opening round of the season.
Much has been made about the underperforming Cats defence that has missed Jack Henry, Tom Stewart and had an underdone Sam De Koning, however there’s many underperforming areas around the ball that loom as major concerns for Geelong. Geelong ranks 18th for clearances, 17th for contested possessions, 17th in disposals, 16th for ground ball gets and 15th in metres gained.
Although the Kangaroos were missing Luke Davies-Uniacke and Jye Simpkin, Hawthorn’s response in the centre of the ground was emphatic in Round Three. The Hawks were +82 for disposals +19 in contested possessions and +19 in clearances. Will Day (29 disposals), Josh Ward (27) and Dylan Moore (26) led the way for Hawthorn, and they’ll need to be at their best once again if the Hawks are to be competitive.
Despite their win over a North Melbourne team missing their two best midfielders, it’s hard to have any confidence in Hawthorn after what they served up in the opening two games of the year. In the grand scheme of things the win against the Roos is wallpapering over the cracks for a team that is destined to finish in the bottom two.
Geelong have won two of their last three encounters against Hawthorn, and although the line of -30.5 looks large, their performances in rounds 1 & 2 make it hard to have faith in their young side being competitive against a Geelong side that will come out all guns blazing.
Geelong will be desperate to send a statement after a horror start to the season, and their experienced campaigners will be far too good for Hawthorn.
Geelong -30.5
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
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James Sicily 25+ Disposals: Hawthorn’s new skipper has been outstanding in a backline that has been under serious pressure all season long. Sicily has averaged 27 disposals across the opening three rounds, leading the league in kicks and marks. Sicily has hit the 25+ disposal mark in all three games with totals of 30, 25 and 28 disposals.
Will Day 25+ Disposals: Will Day has had career high centre bounce attendances in the last fortnight, and it’s seen some impressive returns for the youngster. Day has attended 63% and 65% of centre bounces in his last two games, for returns of 26 and 29 disposals.
Tom Hawkins 2+ Goals: Tom Hawkins has enjoyed playing in the Easter Monday clash, Hawkins has kicked multiple goals in three of his last four games against Hawthorn, including five goals from his last two games against the Hawks.
Same Game Multi odds - $4.33
