The second game of Saturday night football sees the Suns hosting the Swans on the Gold Coast. Sydney will be out for redemption after a demoralising grand final defeat, while expectations are high on Gold Coast to make the leap into the top eight. Jack Tobin has got you covered with his preview, match tip and same game multi!
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AFL Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast vs Sydney
Saturday 8:00pm AEDT, March 18th, Heritage Bank Stadium
It’s not the highest profile game of the opening round, however this matchup looms as one of the most fascinating of the weekend. Sydney will be out to defy history after being smashed by Geelong in the 2022 Grand Final.
Since 2000, no team that has lost a Grand Final by over 40 points has progressed past the second week of the finals in the following season. Six of the last ten teams to lose a Grand Final by over 40 points have failed to make the finals in the following season. It’s difficult to see such a talented side failing to feature in September, however history shows it’s a massive obstacle to overcome.
Another factor going against the Swans in this clash is their recent struggles against the Suns. Sydney have lost three of their last four games against Gold Coast, and will have a big challenge at a venue where the Suns have been hard to beat.
Both clubs opted for continuity during the off season, with their improvement set to come from their young players making the leap to the next level. There will be plenty of expectations around the likes of Chad Warner, Errol Gulden, Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell to become genuine stars of the competition in 2023.
With both teams possessing stacked midfields, the battle in the centre of the ground looms crucial to the result on Saturday night, and it’s an area that surprisingly the Suns may have an advantage.
The Suns were excellent in the middle of the ground last season as Stewart Dew’s game plan around low possession, high impact began to take place. The Suns ranked fourth in the league for contested possessions and fourth in clearances, with Tom Hickey out with a hamstring injury, Jarrod Witts could have a field day providing his midfielders first use.
Jarrod Witts led the AFL for hitouts in 2022, recording 94 more hitouts than the next best ruckman. There’s no surprise that Gold Coast saw a major spike in their midfield output with Witts having a dominant year in 2022, after missing the majority of 2021 with an ACL injury.
The Suns forward line can also cause Sydney some serious headaches, with Ben King (202cm), Mabior Chol (200cm) and Levi Casboult (198cm) having major height advantages against the Swans key defenders of Paddy McCartin (195cm), Tom McCartin (194cm) and Dane Rampe (189cm). If the Suns gain control out the middle and win the territory battle, it’s going to be incredibly difficult to contain one of the most dangerous forward lines in the competition.
This looms as a major opportunity for Gold Coast to cause an upset in the opening round of the season. They’ve matched up well against Sydney over the past few seasons, and they’re a vastly better side in 2023. Witts is going to give the Suns a huge advantage in the middle of the ground, which will give them the ability to control the game in their front half.
The Suns are excellent value in this clash, with so many matchup factors leaning their way, they've got a great chance to upset one of the best teams in the competition. A +7.5 line gives a nice buffer whilst still providing one of the best value selections of Round One.
Gold Coast +7.5
$1.85 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The easiest way to place your Same Game Multi is to click on the BoomBet BetShare button below! This will add our SGM selections straight into your BoomBet bet slip! You can then enter how much you wish to wager and with one click, your bet has been placed!
We’ve got a 3-leg Same Game Multi with plenty of value for the Suns vs Swans.
Chad Warner 25+ Disposals: Chad Warner had a breakout season in 2022, averaging 22 disposals per game, including a 29 disposal performance in the Grand Final. Warner reached the 25 disposal mark in six of his last eleven games in 2022, and has increased his disposal average by at least six disposals per game in each year he has been in the system.
Noah Anderson 25+ Disposals: Anderson announced himself as one of the best midfielders in the game last season, averaging 26 disposals per game. Anderson hit the 25 disposal mark on fifteen occasions in 2022, including seven of his last eight games of the season. With plenty of attention still surrounding Touk Miller, it opens up plenty of opportunities for Anderson to win the footy.
Mabior Chol 2+ Goals: Chol’s first season at the Gold Coast was an incredibly productive one, as he was able to string continuous games together for the first time in his career. Chol was the Suns leading goal kicker with 44 goals, and kicked multiple goals in twelve of his 22 games.
Same Game Multi odds - $11! Click the button below to jump on.
