After an intriguing 2022 AFL home and away season, followed by a jaw-dropping finals series, the 2022 AFL Grand Final is now upon us! Geelong and Sydney are the last two teams standing and will lock horns this Saturday! Only one will become the 2022 AFL Premiers!
Jake Smit takes you through his match prediction and best prop bets for the big dance right here!
2022 AFL Grand Final: Geelong vs Sydney Preview & Betting Tips
MCG, Saturday 24th September, 2:30pm (AEST)
Geelong
Injuries: Flynn Kroeger, Sam Simpson, Cooper Whyte, James Willis (out), Max Holmes (test)
Geelong’s blessed run with injuries continues all the way to Grand Final week. They won’t be without any of their best 22 on Saturday providing Max Holmes passes a fitness test on a sore hamstring.
The Cats had about as comfortably a preliminary final win as you’re likely to see in the modern day. They absolutely dominated the Lions from start to finish and ended up winning by 71 points (120-49). Patrick Dangerfield was clearly BOG with 28 disposals and 2.2, which will give him a lot of confidence ahead of the biggest match of his illustrious career.
The minor premiers have now won 15 straight matches, with their last loss coming way back in Round 9 against the Saints. Furthermore, four of their last five wins have been by at least seven goals, which tells us that they certainly aren’t running out of puff. Considering they have the oldest list in the competition by some margin, playing just two matches over the past month is the ideal preparation for the Cats.
Sydney
Injuries: Colin O’Riordan, Marc Sheather, Sam Naismith, Josh Kennedy (out), Sam Reid, Justin McInerney (test)
Sydney had their fair share of injuries earlier in the season, but they have a relatively healthy list heading into the big dance. Josh Kennedy will obviously miss after announcing his retirement following another hamstring injury. Duo Sam Reid and Justin McInerney will have to pass fitness tests to be able to take on the Cats.
The Swans were in control of their preliminary final against the Magpies until they weren’t. They took the foot off the gas and became passive with their ball movement in the fourth quarter, opening the door to a Magpies comeback that eventually fell short by one point (95-94). Tom Papley was arguably the Swans best player on the day with 16 disposals and 3.2, although he still had a couple of moments inside forward 50 that he’d like to forget.
The Swans enter the Grand Final on an impressive winning run of their own having saluted in each of their last nine matches. Their wins have been a lot closer in comparison, with each of their last four coming by five goals or less. Still, it’s been a remarkable season for a team that relies heavily on a lot of inexperienced players, and it’ll be interesting to see how they stand up in the biggest match of their lives.
Match Prediction
These teams met in Round 2 at the SCG where the Swans prevailed comfortably by 30 points (107-77). However, the Cats were wasteful in front of goal that day kicking 10.17 to the Swans 17.5, and the twin towers in Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron combined for just 1.5.
The Swans have now won the last two meetings with the Cats, although both were at the comfort of their home ground. Over their last 10 meetings, each team has won five, which tells us neither side has the wood over the other and previous H2H results will have no real bearing on Saturday’s outcome.
The odds are heavily in the favour of the Cats ($1.48-$2.70) to win their 16th straight match and secure the 10th premiership in their famous club’s history. They have a substantial edge over the Swans in terms of experience in big matches and will also have freshness on their side after cruising through the Lions last weekend.
The Swans are certainly capable of testing the cats for 2-3 quarters on Saturday and making it a great spectacle, but as we saw last weekend, they still have a lot to learn in crunch time and their inexperienced players may struggle with decision making in those key moments in the fourth quarter should it be a close match like many of us are expecting. So, with that said, I’ll be taking the Cats to win by 1-39 points for a couple of units.
Geelong 1-39
$2.02 (2 Units)
Norm Smith Medal
I’m a firm believer that the Cats are in the front seat to win the premiership, so it would only make sense that I play the Cats players markets in the Normie. For most teams favoured to win the flag there are only 2-3 players who you’d truly make a case for to take home this accolade, but as we saw in the Brownlow Medal count (Jeremy Cameron topped Cats voting with 19), there a number of players who can poke their neck out for the flag fancies. However, I’m also a firm believer of the cream rising to the top and that the performance we saw from Patrick Dangerfield last weekend was merely a warning sign for the Swans. Danger clearly has more left in the tank and I’m keen to be with him to take home the Norm Smith Medal on Saturday afternoon.
Patrick Dangerfield
$7.00
Prop Bets
Brad Close is the best value in the anytime market in my opinion. The crafty small forward has kicked at least one goal in 13 of his past 15 outings and he’s kicked three goals from his two finals to date. To top it all off, Close jagged four goals when they met the Swans earlier in the season.
Brad Close Anytime Goal Scorer ($1.73 at Ladbrokes)
Gryan Miers is the other one I like a lot in the anytime market. He hasn’t quite been as consistent as Close, but he’s still kicked a goal in six of his last eight matches, including two against the Lions last weekend. Anything above $1.75 is value here for mine.
Gryan Miers Anytime Goal Scorer ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Patrick Dangerfield turned back the clock last weekend with an incredibly dominant performance against the Lions. He showed us all that he’s still capable of playing at an elite level in the midfield over four quarters, which is what I now expect from him again on Saturday. I’ll be targeting the 25+ disposal market but will also nibble at the 30+ at odds.
Patrick Dangerfield 25+ Disposals ($2.15 at TAB)
