The second AFL preliminary final will see Sydney play hosts to Collingwood in a Saturday twilight fixture. Jake Smit provides his analysis and best betting tips for the clash right here!
Before You Bet will continue to preview and provide betting tips for every game of the 2022 AFL finals, so be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for regular updates.
Sydney vs Collingwood Betting Tips
SCG, Saturday 17th September, 4:45pm (AEST)
Sydney
Injuries: Josh Kennedy, Peter Ladhams, Sam Naismith, Colin O’Riordan, Marc Sheather
Unfortunately for the Swans, Josh Kennedy tweaked his hamstring again, which means he’s now a retired player after 290 elite games. Peter Ladhams is the other player potentially in their best 22 that’s unavailable to play after picking up a suspension in the 2’s a couple of weeks ago.
The Swans extended their winning streak to eight with a massive comeback victory over the Demons in the first week of finals. Despite trailing by four goals at the main break, they kept their composure, upped their pressure, and eventually proved too good. To top it all off, the Swans earned a week off and a home preliminary final, which is something that no one could’ve expected given the age demographic of their key playing group.
Collingwood
Injuries: Taylor Adams, Charlie Dean, Brodie Grundy, Harvey Harrison, Reef McInnes, Tom Wilson
Taylor Adams and Brodie Grundy are the two walk-up starters that won’t feature again in 2022 for the Magpies. Adams has had repeated issues with his groin and injured it badly a couple of weeks ago, while Grundy has missed a large chunk of the season with a severe ankle injury.
The Magpies recovered brilliantly from their heartbreak against the Cats in the first week of finals to overcome the Dockers last weekend. They controlled the match from start to finish and won comfortably, which was a nice change for their fans after a heart-stopping home and away season. Now into the final four, the young Magpies have a chance to make it to the Grand Final and attempt to avenge their devastating defeat to the Eagles in 2018.
Match Prediction
Excluding the Covid year when they played at the Gabba, this will be the 10th time in a row the Swans have been the hosts in this matchup. Of those 10, the H2H count is tied at 5-5, which tells us this is a relatively happy hunting ground for the Magpies. However, the Swans have won their two most recent meetings, including just a few weeks when they recorded a 77-50 victory at the SCG, which snapped an 11-match win streak for the visitors.
Both teams bring fantastic form into this final, but home ground advantage and recent success in this matchup will see the Swans start at around three-goal favourites. While I can appreciate the Swans are in fantastic form and are probably deserving favourites, the +17.5 line looks too much when you consider the Magpies ability to keep games extremely close. With that in mind, I’m happy to be on the Magpies to cover the spread.
Collingwood +17.5
$2 (2.5 Units)
Prop Bets
Jack Ginnivan was great value for 2+ goals last week and that hasn’t changed this week either. He’s kicked 39 goals for the season, is coming off three goals last time out, and loves the big stage.
Jack Ginnivan 2+ Goals ($2.60 at TAB)
Scott Pendlebury continues to age like a fine wine, and is currently in the best form he’s been in all season long. He’s averaging 27.5 disposals over the past month and remains great value for at least 25 on Saturday night.
Scott Pendlebury 25+ Disposals ($1.75 at Ladbrokes)
Tom Papley’s form in the second half of the season has been superb, and it’s one of the reasons why the Swans are in red-hot form. He’s kicked 2+ goals in seven of his last eight games, including 2.1 against the Magpies in Round 22. He strikes me as great value again here.
Tom Papley 2+ Goals ($1.85 at Ladbrokes)
