The second AFL semi-final on this weekend sees Collingwood host Fremantle under the Saturday night lights at the MCG. Jake Smit takes you through his best bets for this mouth-watering clash.
Before You Bet will continue to preview and provide betting tips for every match of the finals, so be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for regular updates.
Collingwood vs Fremantle Betting Tips
MCG, Saturday 10th September, 7:25pm (AEST)
Collingwood
Injuries: Jordan De Goey (Test), Taylor Adams, Charlie Dean, Brodie Grundy, Harvey Harrison, Reef McInnes, Tom Wilson (Out)
Jordan De Goey is under a slight injury cloud but is expected to take to the field on Saturday night. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about Taylor Adams who’s out for the rest of the season due to another groin injury. Brodie Grundy is the other key player who’s unable to play due to injury.
The Magpies put up a huge fight against the minor premiers last weekend, but just fell short at the end due to a defensive lapse or two. In true 2022 Magpie fashion, the match was close from start to finish and was decided by just one goal. Due to their tremendous home and away season where they finished in fourth spot, the Magpies earned the right to a second chance in the finals, which they’ll be hoping to take advantage of at a packed MCG on Saturday night. The Magpies have won each of their last six home matches and went 8-3 on the season.
Fremantle
Injuries: Matthew Johnson (Test), Nat Fyfe, Darcy Tucker, Karl Worner (TBC)
Fremantle have very little to complain about on the injury front, with only four players named on their injury list ahead of team selection on Thursday night. One of those four, however, is superstar Nat Fyfe who continues to battle soft tissue injuries. He’ll miss once again this weekend.
To say the Dockers were slow starters in their elimination final against the Bulldogs last weekend is a massive understatement. They looked down and out when they trailed by 35 points early in the first half, but slowly and surely, they worked their way back in it and eventually came out on top. There was an electric atmosphere at Optus Stadium and the home crowd certainly played their part in getting the Dockers over the line. Unfortunately, their fans will be extremely outnumbered in Melbourne on Saturday night.
Match Prediction
The Magpies snapped a three-match losing streak against the Dockers when they upset them at Optus Stadium earlier this season. They dominated that particular meeting to win by six goals in the end, which is sure to fill them with confidence ahead of Saturday night’s semi-final.
Even though the Magpies lost last weekend and the Dockers saluted, I still think it’s fair to say that the former was the better performing team, particularly over the full four quarters. Unfortunately for the Magpies, they were up against a Cats outfit that had won 13 matches on the spin and whom are also the flag favourites. This is an easier opponent for the Magpies and one that they’ve already had great success against this season. So, with all things considered, I’m comfortably to back the Magpies to cover the small spread for a couple of units.
Collingwood -11.5 Points
$2 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
Jack Ginnivan was well-held against the professional Cats defence last weekend but has a chance to bounce back against the Dockers as his Magpies go in as the favourites. Ginnivan kicked 2.2 against the Dockers in their match earlier this season and is great value for multiple goals on Saturday night.
Jack Ginnivan 2+ Goals ($2.40 at Ladbrokes)
Ash Johnson is the other player I like a lot in the goal scorer markets in this match. He’s kicked 2+ goals in five of his seven matches this season and has kicked at least one in every game. He looks to be over the odds for 2+ again here.
Ash Johnson 2+ Goals ($2.20 at Ladbrokes)
Veteran midfielder Steele Sidebottom is leaned upon more than usual when it comes to finals, and we saw that last weekend. He collected 23 disposals and was one of the Magpies better performers on the day. I like him for 20+ again against the Dockers this weekend.
Steele Sidebottom 20+ Disposals ($2.30 at Ladbrokes)
