Arguably the match of the weekend in AFL Round 22 will take place on Saturday night with the Demons hosting the Blues at the MCG. Jake Smit takes you through his key bets for this mouth-watering clash!
Remember, Before You Bet will be previewing every game of the 2022 AFL season, so be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for regular updates.
Melbourne vs Carlton Betting Tips
MCG, Saturday 13th August, 7:25pm (AEST)
Melbourne
Injuries: Tom McDonald, Deakyn Smith, Fraser Rosman, Andy Moniz-Wakefield (Out)
Melbourne don’t have much at all to complain about in terms of injury at the moment. The only player in their best 22 that’s unavailable this weekend is Tom McDonald. The Utility continues to rehab an ankle injury that’s likely to keep him out for the remainder of 2022.
Just as we all thought the Demons were finding some of their best form in the lead-up to the finals, they go and cough up a big lead to the Magpies to suffer their sixth loss from their last 10 matches. It’s been a really tough period for the reigning premiers who looked near invincible in the first half of the season. They now find themselves in third place on the ladder and only 4.6% above the Lions who currently sit in fifth. With a tough match against said Lions to come next week, it’s imperative the Demons put in a good performance this weekend.
Carlton
Injuries: Jordan Boyd, David Cunningham, Ed Curnow, George Hewett, Josh Honey, Matt Kennedy, Oscar McDonald, Nic Newman, Luke Parks, Sam Philp, Zac Williams (Out)
Unlike their opponents, Carlton have an extensive injury list and are missing a whole host of their key players. George Hewett and Matt Kennedy are both missing from the engine room this weekend, but both should be available either next week or the first week of finals should they make it. On a positive note, Patrick Cripps got off his suspension and is free to play this weekend.
The Blues were lacklustre in the first three quarters of their clash with the Lions last weekend before making a huge surge in the fourth term. However, their efforts weren’t nearly enough as they ended up going down by over five goals in what was their sixth loss from their last 10 matches. It’s been a bitterly disappointing second half of the season from the Blues who are still yet to secure a finals berth, which is something they’ll be hoping to do this weekend.
Match Prediction
The last time these sides met was nearly 15 months ago when the Demons led from wire-to-wire in a relatively comfortable 26-point win. They’ve won six straight matches against the Blues, although their last three have only been by an average margin of 11 points. With so much to play for on this occasion for both teams, I’m expecting another close affair that should come right down to the wire, but I still have the Demons coming away with the chocolates.
Melbourne 1-39
$1.92 (1 Unit)
Prop Bets
Jack Martin has been out of favour in recent weeks but gets his chance in the best 22 this weekend. When he does get on the park, he’s proven to be a consistent goal threat, as he’s kicked 10 goals from his last seven matches. I see him as great value to kick at least one against the demons.
Jack Martin Anytime Goal Scorer ($1.80 at Ladbrokes)
Bailey Fritsch is one of the toughest forwards for opposing defenders to find a good matchup for, which is why he’s kicked 45 goals this season. He’s kicked 3+ goals on nine separate occasions and gets a look a Blues defence that has been leaking goals for fun in recent weeks.
Bayley Fritsch 3+ goals ($2.35 at Ladbrokes)
Mitch McGovern now has three matches under his belt since coming back from a nasty hamstring injury. He has a disposal conducive role down back which has seen him rack up 18 touches in each of his las two matches, which is a trend I expect to continue.
Mitch McGovern 15+ Disposals ($1.80 at Ladbrokes)
