AFL Round 22 begins on Friday night with an important match between the Saints and the Lions at Marvel Stadium. Find our best spread and player prop bets for the match here!
Remember, Before You Bet will be previewing every game of the 2022 AFL season, so be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for regular updates.
St Kilda vs Brisbane Betting Tips
Marvel Stadium, Friday 12th August, 7:50pm (AEST)
St Kilda
Injuries: Dan Hannebery, Daniel McKenzie (Test), Paddy Ryder, Jack Billings, Nick Coffield, Jade Gresham, Jack Hayes (Out)
Key players going down with injury in the key portion of the season has been a big reason for the Saints drop-off in form. Jack Billings, Paddy Ryder and Jade Gresham are all guys they’d love to have out there at the moment but can’t. Dan Hannebery is also expected to miss yet another match due to a niggling injury.
The Saints looked as though they were up for the fight in the hostile environment against the Cats at GMHBA last weekend, however, a second half onslaught by the home side showed just how far the Saints are off the pace at the moment. Unfortunately, that was their sixth loss from their last nine games, which came after they started the season 9-2. The Saints now face an uphill battle to secure one of the last two finals spots still up for grabs.
Brisbane
Injuries: Marcus Adams, Callum Ah Chee, Connor McFadyen, Ely Smith (TBC), Tom Berry, Carter Michael (Out)
Callum Ah Chee was concussed against the Blues last weekend and will be unable to play against the Saints due to protocols. Marcus Adams is the only other Lion who is under an injury cloud as he too is battling from a concussion.
The Lions responded from their bitterly disappointing defeat against the Tigers with a big five-goal win at home over the Blues in Round 21. They were in control from the opening bounce and led by a large margin for the first three quarters before the Blues threatened to make an almighty comeback, however the Lions showed some poise late in the fourth term to secure an important four points. They now sit in fifth spot on the ladder and remain only percentage outside the top four.
Match Prediction
The Lions have had the wood over the Saints over the last couple of seasons with three wins from their last four meetings, including a 78-57 victory at the Gabba earlier this year. They have inarguably the best offence in the competition and get a look at a Saints defence that has conceded 107+ points three times in their last eight matches.
This is clearly not an ideal matchup for the Saints which is why it’s surprising to me to see the Lions as only 8.5-point favourites. I’ll be looking to take advantage of the bookies generosity on Friday night.
Brisbane -8.5
$2 (1.5 Units)
Prop Bets
Eric Hipwood has been building with every match since his return and now finds himself in some good form. The Saints lack depth in the key defender department and with Hipwood taking the second or third best big, it’s likely he can take advantage and hit the scoreboard.
Eric Hipwood 2+ Goals ($2.02 at Ladbrokes)
Zac Bailey is another forward for the Lions who will be looking forward to this matchup. He’s shown the ability to hit the scoreboard in a big way this season with 3+ goals on six different occasions. I’m looking for him to kick at least two in this one.
Zac Bailey 2+ goals ($2.20 at Ladbrokes)
Callum Wilkie has been easily the Saints best defender this season and has been getting a lot more ball down back in the second half of the season. He’s accumulated 15+ disposals in 10 of his last 13 matches and remains good value to hit that mark again on Friday night.
Callum Wilkie 15+ Disposals ($1.72 at Ladbrokes)
