Adelaide and Collingwood will clash in the first of five big AFL matches on Saturday afternoon of Round 18 with the first bounce from Adelaide Oval at 1:45pm. While the Crows are only playing for pride at this stage of the season, the Pies are on a seven-game winning streak and well on their way to September action. They’ll want to keep that momentum going, but this looms as a genuine danger game.
Read on for our preview and free AFL betting tips for Adelaide vs Collingwood this Saturday!
Adelaide vs Collingwood Betting Tips
Adelaide Oval. Saturday July 16th, 1:45 AEST
Adelaide
Injuries: Rory Sloane, Paul Seedsman, Josh Rachele, Luke Pedlar
After a pretty poor loss last week to Hawthorn, Adelaide have made a couple of interesting choices at the selection table with James Rowe and Jackson Hately omitted from the side, despite showing some promise this season. They’ve also dropped Matt Crouch for the third time this season, so if he’s not checking on the prices of real estate in Melbourne then I’d be shocked. Lachlan Murphy, Mitchell Hinge and Shane McAdam are the replacements - serviceable contributors but hardly enough to move the needle as the Crows look to the future.
It’s interesting that someone like Rory Laird is applauded for 40 disposals and no metres gained but Matt Crouch is crucified for it.
Anyway, the key to the Crows success in this one is their forward line. Taylor Walker has re-signed for another year and has performed superbly on the field after a rocky start to the season off the field. He has led from the front with his physicality and dominated opposition defenders. This has allowed guys like Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe to develop their skills on the second and third string defenders, which sets them up beautifully for future seasons. The Pies have been woeful at stopping key forwards this season, with or without Darcy Moore, so I expect Tex and Co to be hard to stop.
Collingwood
Injuries: Jack Madgen, Nathan Kreuger, Reef McInnes, Brodie Grundy, Jordan De Goey, Charlie Dean
The Pies got out of jail last weekend after coming from 28 points down against the bottom-ranked Kangaroos to avoid complete embarrassment. North were definitely improved but the Pies will want, and need, a better four-quarter performance here to win away from home.
They’ve struggled with injuries for much of the season, particularly in their backline, but welcome back Darcy Moore for this match. Brodie Grundy is only a few weeks away from returning, so it’s been an excellent period in terms of wins and losses with their prized asset on the sidelines. Darcy Cameron has stepped up and even Mason Cox has enjoyed more ruck time instead of flailing like a baby giraffe in the forward line.
It’s Scott Pendlebury’s 350th AFL game this weekend as he becomes only the 20th player in VFL/AFL history to reach that milestone. In an era of power athletes, Pendlebury defies the trend as a silky smooth mover and elite ball user. Surely the Pies will be inspired by Pendles to ensure they bring home a victory.
Match Prediction
The Pies should win for Pendles, but it won’t be easy. They’ll have to get back to the high-pressure standards they’ve set themselves, and ensure that they limit supply into the Crows power forwards. The Crows have lost eight of their last ten and seem to be looking towards next season, so we’ll back the Pies in here.
Collingwood -9.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Prop Bets
As already mentioned, the Pies have struggled to contain key forwards all season. They made Nick Larkey look like a superstar last week when he kicked 5 goals. They do welcome back Darcy Moore, but he’s not really a shut down defender, so I expect Taylor Walker to be hard to stop and I think he’ll be hungry for a big game. Happy to take better than even money for him to kick at least 3.
Taylor Walker 3+ Goals - $2.05 at Ladbrokes
With Matt Crouch out, I expect Sam Berry to get increased time in the middle of the ground, especially with CBAs. Berry has been sensational this season and looks to be a player of the future. We looked at the 20+ disposals market, and while that’s a chance, I think a better play is to take the 90+ AFL Fantasy points at a better price. Berry is an elite tackler averaging over 9 tackles a game across his last 10 matches, which is massive for fantasy scoring. The Pies leak fantasy points through the middle, so happy to see Berry have a big game.
Sam Berry 90+ AFL Fantasy Points - $2.65 at Ladbrokes
