Round 12 concludes with a Sunday evening blockbuster in Perth, as the third placed Fremantle host second placed Brisbane at Optus Stadium. The winner could potentially be top of the ladder at the conclusion of this weekend, so there’s plenty on the line in the clash!
Jack Tobin is here with a full preview for this game and make sure to check out BeforeYouBet’s AFL Tips page for coverage of every game this weekend.
Fremantle vs Brisbane Preview & Betting Tips
Optus Stadium, Sunday 5th June, 5:20pm AEST
Fremantle
Injuries: Michael Walters, Heath Chapman, Jye Amiss, Nathan O’Driscoll, Matt Taberner, Joel Western
Fremantle have been hit hard by injury this week with Michael Walters (hamstring), Matt Taberner (back) and Heath Chapman (hamstring) all out from last week’s side. Neil Erasmus, Mitch Crowden, Lloyd Meek, Ethan Hughes, Nathan Wilson and Connor Blakely have been brought into the extended squad. Young key forward Jye Amiss was moved onto the inactive list after suffering a kidney injury in the WAFL which has ended his season. In positive news for the Dockers, Nat Fye will return via the WAFL this week as approaches his first game at AFL level this season.
The Dockers ended Melbourne’s seventeen game winning streak with a stunning twelve goal to one second half to turn a 30 point deficit into a 38 point victory. Justin Longmuir came in with a meticulous plan and the Dockers were able to control the contest and the spread recording plus 58 disposals, plus 12 contested possessions, plus 4 tackles and plus 56 uncontested marks.
Fremantle’s two losses leading into Round 11 were hindered by inefficiency in attack. Against Gold Coast Fremantle kicked 4.9 and scored from just 16% of their inside 50’s. Against Collingwood, the Dockers kicked 6.8 and scored from only 26% of their inside 50’s. Last weekend they were able to rectify their issues in front of the ball, kicking 14.10 and scoring from 41% of their inside 50’s. Coming up against the highest scoring team in the AFL, Fremantle will need to produce what they were able to in the second half against Melbourne.
Brisbane
Injuries: Joe Daniher, Kai Lohmann
The Lions have the smallest injury list in the AFL with only Joe Daniher (shoulder) and Kai Lohmann (ankle) with both players set to be back within three weeks. Hugh McCluggage is back in the side after missing with a hamstring injury, with last week’s medi-sub Mitch Robinson the only omission at this stage.
Brisbane bounced back from a shock loss against Hawthorn, with a fourteen point victory over GWS in a high scoring encounter at the Gabba. The Lions trailed by 30 points in the first quarter, but outscored the Giants 15 goals to 9 from that point onwards. Led by Lachie Neale (39 disposals, 2 goals), Brisbane dominated the inside winning the contested possession battle by 29, which ultimately was how the Lions gained the ascendancy.
Brisbane are the number one scoring team in the AFL averaging 117 points per game, and have scored 96 points more than the next highest scoring team in Richmond. The Lions have scored over 100 points in their last six games and will have a big task continuing that form, coming up against the Dockers who are the number one ranked defence in the AFL.
Match Prediction
It’s a battle of offence vs defence as the number one ranked attack in Brisbane (117 points per game) and the number one defence in Fremantle (66 points conceded per game) face off. The Lions have won five of their last six games against Freo by an average margin of 42 points. Fremantle rely heavily on transition scoring, so if Brisbane can contain that, it will go a long way towards winning the game.
The losses of Walters and Taberner are crucial to Fremantle’s forward structure functioning, with conditions looking favourable on Sunday in Perth, it’s difficult to see the Dockers being able to go with Brisbane from an attacking point of view. Brisbane have had a number of years playing in these top four clashes and have a history of living up to them. Backing the Lions experience in this fixture, against a side they’ve had plenty of success against in the last five years.
Brisbane H2H
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
Prop Bets
Daniel Rich continues to be a force off half back for Brisbane, averaging 24 disposals per game in 2022. Rich is averaging 25 disposals across his last four games and has hit the 25 plus mark in more than half of his games this season. Rich is the leading kick in taker for the Lions this season which gives him easy disposals each week, Rich had a big day against the Dockers the last time these two sides met, racking up 28 disposals.
Daniel Rich 25+ Disposals, $1.57 with Ladbrokes
Charlie Cameron currently sits eighth in the Coleman Medal race with 27 goals, the most of any small forward in the AFL this season. Cameron has kicked three or more goals in six of his last seven games, and has kicked nine goals in his last three games against Fremantle.
Charlie Cameron 3+ Goals, $2.60 with Ladbrokes
Will Brodie has been one of the best recruits of the season, becoming one of Fremantle’s most important players. Brodie ranks in the top eleven in the AFL for contested possessions, clearances and disposals. Brodie is averaging 32 disposals per game in the last month and is having an ultra consistent season averaging 28 disposals per game.
Will Brodie 30+ Disposals, $2.35 with Ladbrokes
