ANZAC Day football kicks off with Hawthorn and Sydney facing off in Launceston from 12:30pm. Both teams are sitting inside the top eight and are playing outstanding football, so this should be an exciting clash!
Jack Tobin has you covered with his best picks for the game and head to our AFL Tips page, where the BeforeYouBet team has tips for every game of the 2022 AFL season.
Hawthorn vs Sydney Preview & Betting Tips
UTAS Stadium, Monday 25th April, 12:30pm AEST
Hawthorn
Injuries: Changkuoth Jiath, Mitch Lewis, Ned Reeves, Ben McEvoy, Lachie Bramble, Tom Phillips (Out)
The Hawks’ key stocks have taken a hit with Mitch Lewis (hamstring) and Ned Reeves (shoulder) suffering injuries in the Easter Monday win over Geelong. Changkuoth Jiath suffered a hamstring injury at training late in the week and has been withdrawn from the Hawks initial extended squad alongside Tom Phillips. Will Day and Max Lynch return to the side from concussion protocols, while Chad Wingard returns from a calf injury that has kept him out since Round Three.
Hawthorn picked up their biggest scalp of the season last week, with a thrilling Easter Monday win over Geelong. Hawthorn won the game at the coalface recording plus 26 contested possessions which led to a plus 25 advantage in the disposal count. Tom Mitchell (33 disposals) and Jai Newcombe (31) led a Hawks midfield that brokeven at clearances (36-36) despite losing the hitout count by 21.
James Sicily put together a remarkable performance in defence last week with 26 disposals, 15 marks, 7 intercepts and 486 metres gained. Sicily will need to put in another big performance coming up against the number two ranked scoring side in the competition.
Sydney
Injuries: Tom Papley, Robbie Fox, Tom Hickey, Sam Naismith, Colin O’Riordan (Out)
It’s positive news on the injury front for Sydney who regain Lance Franklin from a finger injury and Josh Kennedy returns after being managed as the sub on Good Friday. Sam Wicks has earned a recall to the squad after an impressive performance in the VFL last week.
Tom Hickey and Sam Naismith are sidelined for an extended period of time so the Swans ruck stocks are beginning to thin, but with Hawthorn missing Reeves and McEvoy, Peter Ladhams has an opportunity to have a big influence on this match. Ladhams was outstanding in his second game for the Swans, recording 25 hitouts, 24 disposals, 5 clearances and 4 marks.
Sydney were red hot on Good Friday in Perth recording a 63 point win over the Eagles in a game they led from start to finish. The Swans were utterly dominant winning the disposal count by 72, the contested possessions by 37, the inside 50’s by 36 and stoppage clearances by 12. Sydney have expanded their midfield rotation this season giving some more opportunities to their younger players and they’ve reaped the rewards with a deep spread of contributors in their midfield. Callum Mills (25 disposals per game), Justin McInerny (23), Luke Parker (21), Chad Warner (21), Nick Blakey (20), Errol Gulden (19) and Ollie Florent (17) have created some serious depth in the Sydney midfield.
Match Prediction
Both teams have had impressive starts to the season with Sydney sitting 4-1 and Hawthorn holding a 3-2 record. Sydney have been ultra impressive and have established themselves as a genuine premiership threat, playing an attacking brand of football spearheaded by arguably the most in-form player in the comp, Isaac Heeney.
Although the Hawks have some star power in midfield, the Swans bat much deeper and should be able to gain control in the centre of the ground. Sydney have won two of their last three games against Hawthorn by an average of 13 points, and won their last clash against the Hawks in Launceston by 37 points. The Swans four victories this season have come by an average margin of 31 points and they’ll cover the line comfortably in this one.
Sydney -12.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Prop Bets
Jai Newcombe had centre bounce attendances of 11, 10 and 10 across the first three rounds of the season. In the last two weeks Sam Mitchell has given the young gun more opportunities at centre bounce with 26 and 21 CBA’s for Newcombe in his last two games. The increase in his role has led to an increase in performance with 23 and 31 disposal performances across the last two weeks - Newcombe’s best two returns of the season. Newcombe is excellent value in disposal markets, and should retain his high CBA rate.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals, $2.35 with Ladbrokes
Isaac Heeney has been one of the best players in the AFL through the first five rounds of the 2022 season. Heeney is averaging 19.4 disposals, 2.8 goals and 5.2 marks per game, with goal returns of 3, 5, 1, 2 and 3. Heeney has continually hit the scoreboard, particularly late in games and he’ll be causing the Hawthorn defence plenty of trouble on Monday afternoon.
Isaac Heeney 3+ Goals, $2.40 with Ladbrokes
Dylan Moore has become one of the premier small forwards in the AFL this season, kicking eleven goals so far this season. Moore has been on fire in the last month, with returns of 2, 2, 2, and 4 goals. At $2.05, Moore provides excellent value to kick 2+ goals.
Dylan Moore 2+ Goals, $2.10 with Ladbrokes
