Round 5 of the AFL season was spread over a big Easter long weekend, and although Good Friday was another lacklustre day of football, there were a few close matches as the weekend unfolded. Once again we bring you our thoughts for every match with our Round 5 Brownlow vote predictions below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 5 Overview
The most interesting note from our AFL Round 5 Brownlow vote predictions is that Sam Walsh was a stand out in the absense of skipper Patrick Cripps. Obviously the two are going to take votes from each other during the season, but Walsh was superb with 16 disposals in the first quarter alone. He's one to watch for the remainder of the season. Melbourne heavyweights Christian Petracca, Max Gawn and Clayton Oliver are all also likely to be in the votes, as again they take votes from one another.
Perhaps we need to look for teams where there is a single stand out player who is not competing with his teammates for Brownlow votes!
AFL Round 5 Brownlow Votes
Brisbane 15.8.98 def Collingwood 14.7.91
Brisbane shook off a determined Collingwood outfit to get the points. Lachie Neale shook off a slow start to end with 33 disposals and a goal, while Hugh McLuggage (27 disposals, 6 tackles) and Dayne Zorko (28 disposals, 8 marks) also found plenty of footy. Joe Daniher continued his strong season with 4 goals from 12 disposals and 7 marks. Jordan De Goey (21 disposals, 4 goals) and Jack Crisp (36 disposals, 8 tackles, 11 clearances) were prominent for the Pies.
Lachie Neale - 3
Hugh McLuggage - 2
Jack Crisp - 1
North Melbourne 11.5.71 def by Western Bulldogs 21.13.139
It was another poor effort from the Roos who were smashed in the first quarter by the Dogs and never recovered. Bailey Smith was electric with 43 disposals, 7 marks and 646 metres gained, while Jack Macrae (29 disposals, 10 clearances, 1 goal) also won plenty of ball. Up forward it was Aaron Naughton (5 goals, 12 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles) and Marcus Bontempelli (18 disposals, 9 marks, 3 goals) who were most influential. Cody Weightman also kicked 5 goals from 9 disposals, with 4 of them in the first quarter, but he was basically unsighted after quarter time.
Bailey Smith - 3
Aaron Naughton - 2
Jack Macrae - 1
West Coast 9.4.58 def by Sydney 18.13.121
It was another thrashing on Good Friday as the Swans steamrolled the Eagles from the first bounce. Callum Mills (28 disposals, 6 clearances), Luke Parker (26 disposals, 8 marks, 5 clearances, 2 goals), Errol Gulden (27 disposals, 7 marks) and Isaac Heeney (16 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles, 3 goals) were all winners, while Peter Ladhams enjoyed the absence of Nic Nat to deliver 24 disposals, 25 hitouts, 5 clearances and a goal in his best game in red and white.
Callum Mills - 3
Luke Parker - 2
Peter Ladhams - 1
St.Kilda 13.9.87 def Gold Coast 9.7.61
The Saints did enough to land the win against the Suns with Jack Steele leading from the front with 27 disposals, 7 marks, 6 tackles and 5 clearances. Jade Gresham (25 disposals, 5 clearances, 2 goals) and Jack Sinclair (27 disposals, 5 marks) were also among the Saints’ best. However the votes might go to the dynamic Jack Higgins who booted 5 goals from 16 disposals and 7 marks in an excellent performance. For the Suns, Touk Miller tried valiantly with 32 disposals and 6 clearances.
Jack Higgins - 3
Jade Gresham - 1.5
Jack Steele - 1.5
Adelaide 15.11.101 def Richmond 12.10.82
The Crows might be a team on the rise as they accounted for the Tigers in an impressive win. Ben Keays just loves finding the footy with 31 disposals, 6 tackles and 8 clearances. He was well supported by Jordan Dawson (24 disposals, 6 marks) and Rory Laird (26 disposals, 5 clearances). However standing tall up forward was Taylor Walker who bagged 5 goals to go with 16 disposals in a performance that might grab the three votes. Dion Prestia tried hard for the Tigers with 27 disposals.
Taylor Walker - 2.5
Ben Keays - 2.5
Rory Laird - 1
Melbourne 19.6.120 def GWS Giants 7.11.53
Melbourne were far too strong for the Giants as the reigning Premiers roll on in 2022. Christian Petracca (30 disposals, 7 marks, 7 clearances, 2 goals) will be in the Brownlow votes again, while usual suspects Max Gawn (21 disposals, 8 tackles, 25 hitouts, 2 goals) and Clayton Oliver (31 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances) were among their best. Tom Green (34 disposals, 6 clearances) and Callan Ward (34 disposals) were best for the Giants.
Christian Petracca - 3
Max Gawn - 2
Clayton Oliver - 1
Carlton 14.10.94 def Port Adelaide 13.13.91
Carlton nearly choked a big lead once again, but they held their nerve to leave the Power winless to start the 2022 season. Sam Walsh was dominant with 38 disposals, including 16 in the first quarter to set up the win. Adam Cerra (32 disposals) and George Hewett (33 disposals, 13 clearances) were also prolific while Charlie Curnow was a force up forward with 5 goals from 15 disposals. Ryan Burton (29 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals) and Zac Butters (32 disposals, 7 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) were best for the Power.
Sam Walsh - 3
Charlie Curnow - 2
Ryan Burton - 1
Essendon 8.11.59 def by Fremantle 16.11.107
The Bombers didn’t give a yelp after half-time as the Dockers secured a nice away win. Matt Taberner put in a career-best 7 goals from his 11 disposals, and was well fed by Andrew Brayshaw (34 disposals, 5 marks, 5 clearances, 1 goal), Caleb Serong (30 disposals, 7 marks) and Will Brodie (26 disposals, 9 clearances). Darcy Parish (33 disposals, 7 clearances) and Dyson Heppell (34 disposals, 7 marks) tried hard for the Bombers.
Matt Taberner - 3
Andrew Brayshaw - 2
Will Brodie - 1
Hawthorn 14.8.92 def Geelong 11.14.80
The Hawks burst out of the blocks and never looked back as they defeated the Cats on Easter Monday. Jai Newcombe set the tone with 31 disposals and 7 marks, while Tom Mitchell (33 disposals, 9 clearances, 1 goal), James Sicily (26 disposals, 15 marks) and Dylan Moore (19 disposals, 6 tackles, 4 goals) were all exceptional in their varying roles. Joel Selwood played a lone hand for the Cats with 26 disposals, 10 tackles and 7 clearances.
Jai Newcombe - 3
James Sicily - 2
Tom Mitchell - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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