NFL Daily Fantasy Tips 2023-24: Week 8

A full slate of games greets us in week 8, which means more opportunities in DFS. With scoring still down across the league, we need to keep the betting markets in the back of our head when selecting our fantasy teams each week. There are three games totalled below 38, and with no games totalled above 50 points, you can see the way the efficient NFL betting market has dealt with the lower scoring in the NFL. The highest totalled games in this slate are Patriots/Dolphins (47.5), Chiefs/Broncos (47), and Rams/Cowboys (45.5). Stacking these teams is a strategy worth looking into this week.

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Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson - $17,600

Despite Josh Allen being solid last week, we picked the wrong horse when it came to QB. Lamar Jackson destroyed the Lions, going for 357 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air, whilst rushing for another 36 yards and a touchdown on his way to 36.9 points. This week, Jackson gets to take on the dreadful Cardinals defence, who have allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, fourth-highest adjusted completion percentage, and eighth-most passing yards per game. These numbers are even worse against the deep ball, where they rank last in deep passer rating, and 2^nd last in deep passing yards allowed. Expect another big performance this week from the Ravens dynamic QB.

Kirk Cousins - $11,240

If you’re looking for a cheaper option at QB this week, you can do a lot worse than the Vikings quarterback. Cousins has four scores over 20 in his 6 matches, with a wind game in Chicago and a low spot against the Panthers the only exceptions. Whilst the Packers have been great against opposing QBs in fantasy this season (ranking 7^th best), they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of quarterbacks. With several defensive back injuries to the Packers, I like Cousins to get the job done here, at a huge discount on the top quarterbacks in this slate. 

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara - $14,180

Whilst the explosive Kamara from a few years ago appears to be done, Kamara is killing fantasy this season with pure volume. Despite only playing 4 games this season, Kamara leads all running backs in targets, whilst ranking 7^th in opportunity share, and 19^th in weighted opportunities. He leads all running backs with a 22.8% target share, which jumps to an eye-popping 28.6% when the opposing defence is in zone coverage, which the Colts deploy at a high level. Kamara won’t get you much in the run game, however if he can have another game with 10-15 targets, his volume will see RB1 type numbers yet again. With scores between 17.5 and 29.5 in his 4 games since returning, a high floor, medium ceiling type performance is expected.

Breece Hall - $13,750

Breece Hall is quickly making his way up the fantasy running back ladder, after taking over as the main running back for the Jets in week 5. Scores of 31.4 and 20.3, outline the high upside Hall is capable of. This week, Hall gets to take on a Giants run defence that has given up the fifth-highest explosive run rate, 12^th most missed tackles per attempt, and the 10^th highest yards after contact per attempt. With the Giants having an above average pass defence, expect the Jets to lean heavily on Hall this week, in both the run game and the pass game. RB1 upside.

Kenneth Walker III - $12,680

Walker didn’t quite have the game we were hoping for last week against the Cardinals, as the Seahawks sputtered their way to a 20-10 victory at home. This week, against possibly the best defence against the pass, Walker should get fed. Walker ranks 4^th in redzone touches, 10^th in opportunity share, and 14^th in both explosive run rate and missed tackles forced per attempt. A genuine 3-down running back, Walker gets a Browns defence which concedes the third-highest explosive run rate, highest missed tackles allowed per attempt, and 5^th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Walker is a great volume play, who has the opportunity to bust open with a few big plays against a poor Browns’ rush defence.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase - $16,580

With the potential of a slight niggle to Tyreek Hill, I’m going to go Chase as my premium wide receiver in this slate. Chase had his breakout performance in week 5 against the Cardinals, catching 15 passes for 192 yards and 3 touchdowns. Whilst I’m not expecting these video game numbers, I do like Chase to have another big game this week, against an overrated 49ers defence. Chase ranks 2^nd in the league in target share, 8^th in air yard share, 5^th in first read share, and 23^rd in yards per route run. Against zone coverage, of which the 49ers run frequently, Chase’s numbers all increase. Look for Chase to be targeted early and often, and if the Bengals are to have any chance, they need a big game out of their stud wide receiver. 

Christian Kirk - $11,230

Kirk has been so solid this season, with six straight scores between 14 and 25. This week, Kirk and the Jaguars take on the Steelers, who run the fifth-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL. Against man, Kirk commands a 30.8% target share, and a whopping 32.4% first-read share. He will play most of his snaps in the slot, where he will take on veteran Patrick Peterson. Kirk should be able to burn Peterson all game and get volume targets throughout. If he can break one or two big plays, and perhaps snag a touchdown, you’re looking at high-end WR1 numbers, for mid-price.

Kendrick Bourne - $8,800

Bourne is mispriced due to him being in and out of this Patriots line-up, however after his terrific performance last week, surely Belichick can’t take him out again. In his 4 games where he has managed 87%+ of snaps, Bourne has managed a 22.3% target share, 27.9% first read share, and 27.2% air yard share, whilst producing 1.93 yards per route run. Against a Dolphins defence that concedes the 10^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, expect to see Bourne targeted heavily once again. For near bottom dollar, Bourne is great value for money.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce - $16,580

There’s a reason Kelce is priced as an elite wide receiver, and that’s because his fantasy numbers are that of an elite wide receiver. Whilst he’s not quite in the Tyreek Hill stratosphere, he is in his own stratosphere when it comes to tight ends. Kelce averages a full 6.2 points per game more than the next best tight end. This week, he gets to take on a Broncos defence that hasn’t held up well against opposing tight ends, conceding the fourth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Kelce caught 9 passes for 124 yards in the week 6 matchup between these teams, and I don’t see how the Broncos are suddenly going to stop him.

Dallas Goedert - $9,600

Goedert has been tremendous the past few weeks, averaging over 7 targets per game in his past 3 matchups. Amongst tight ends, Goedert ranks 3^rd in yards per route run, 4^th in first-read share, 6^th in fantasy points per route run, and 9^th in target share. This week, Goedert gets a Commanders defence that over the last two weeks have conceded the most fantasy points, most touchdowns, and 9^th highest yards per reception to opposing tight ends. If you want to save $7,000 on Kelce in the hopes Taylor Swift doesn’t show, Goedert will be a solid backup plan.

D/ST

Baltimore Ravens - $6,700

The Ravens defence and special teams continued to hum last week, scoring 14 points against an above average offense in the Lions. Whilst there’s a good chance at a letdown spot here for the Ravens, I still expect their defence and special teams to play well. The Ravens lead the league in sacks this season, whilst generating a league average 9 takeaways. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are middle of the pack when it comes to sacks allowed, whilst turning the ball over on average once per game.

Tennessee Titans - $5,600

This is more a play on the Titans/Falcons game being an absolute snoozefest. With the lowest total expected this week (35 points), the betting market agrees with me. Whilst the Titans defence and S/T units have struggled to get much going this season, they have had one solid performance, a home win over the Bengals, where they conceded only 3 points. As one of the best run defences in the league, they will force Desmond Ridder to throw, and if he can’t get it done the Titans might be sneaky good option here, that will surely be a point of difference for your squad. Atlanta is the 8^th most sacked team, whilst also giving up the 4^th most turnovers in the NFL.

Suggested Draftstars Lineup