Another 10-game Monday morning slate for NFL week 13. With 7 early games and 3 late games, there are plenty of big names to fill your teams with. There are a number of games totalled at 47 and over, and these are the games I will be looking to stack my team with. In the early window, look for the Broncos/Texans game, Lions/Saints game, and Dolphins/Commanders games to get your team heading in the right direction. As for the late window, all eyes will be on the 49ers/Eagles matchup, in what could prove to be an NFC title game preview.
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NFL 2023-24 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 13
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa - $16,090
Tua has had an up and down season in fantasy, but this week he gets a chance to fill his boots, as the Dolphins take on the Commanders in Washington. Since week 7, the Commanders defence have allowed the most passing touchdowns, the fourth-most passing yards per game, and fifth-highest yards per attempt. Tua has solid quarterback stats, ranking second in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in hero throw rate. Tua and the Dolphins are expected to put a big number of the Commanders this week, and Tua has a chance at a huge score here.
Brock Purdy - $12,860
Purdy and the 49ers get the Eagles in a massive revenge spot here, after these teams met in the NFC title game last season. And whilst the Eagles defence was incredible last season, it has fallen off a cliff this season. Purdy will look to shred this defence deep, as the Eagles have given up the third-most deep passing touchdowns, sixth-highest deep completion rate, and 11th-most deep passing yards since week 7. Meanwhile, Purdy’s numbers continue to sing, as he ranks 1st in passer rating and yards per attempt, and 12th in adjusted completion rate. This game is expected to see points from both teams, and if it’s anything like the track meet last week between the Eagles and Bills, then Purdy could be in for a massive week.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams - $15,440
Kyren Williams is BACK. What a performance last week, as the Rams #1 back ran for 143 yards, whilst also hauling in 6 receptions for 61 yards and two touchdowns. Whilst I’m not suggesting there’s another 40+ score this week for Williams, he once again gets a great matchup to show how good he is. Whilst the Browns pass defence is elite, their rush defence has struggled. Since week 7, the Browns have allowed the highest explosive run rate, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and ninth-highest missed tackles per attempt. Williams will kill with volume and chunk plays this week.
Zack Moss - $11,910
Moss is underpriced here, and a definite play until his price is corrected whilst the Colts are without Jonathan Taylor. When the Colts last took on the Titans in week 4, Moss ran for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns, whilst also catching two receptions for 30 yards. Again, whilst I’m not expecting these eye-popping numbers, Moss should get high volume in this matchup. Moss has shown that he can carry this offense on his shoulders, ranking 10thin missed tackles forced per attempt, and 18th in explosive run rate. Moss should easily have top 10 RB numbers in this slate, at a high-end RB2 price point.
David Montgomery - $10,560
Montgomery’s touches have slowed up significantly since he missed time with injury, however I believe this week his usage should increase based on game script. The Lions have been chasing the past two games, which has led them to deploying Jahmyr Gibbs far more at running back, however this week against a Saints team lacking all their top receivers, the Lions should get out to an early lead and be able to lean on their power back Montgomery here. The Saints defence has been porous against the run, allowing the sixth-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact since week 7. Montgomery’s price has bottomed out, and it seems like a nice time to pick him up as a RB2/FLEX option.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill - $18,110
Hill could do anything in this game against a Commanders secondary that is by most accounts the worst in the league. Not only are the Commanders allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but they defend in man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league. Why is that important? Well, Tyreek Hill’s numbers are incredible against man coverage, with a 32.9% target share, 50.4% air-yard share, 4.77 yards per route run, and a 36.4% first-read share. Like I said, this could be anything for the most dynamic skill position player in the league.
A.J. Brown - $14,500
Brown’s price has bottomed out after three less-than-stellar performances over the past few weeks; however, he gets a great matchup this week to bounce back. This Eagles/49ers clash has points written all over it, and if the Eagles get behind early, look for them to feed Brown all day. With 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga missing last week, the 49ers ran single-high at 63%, a defensive alignment that Brown has cooked all season. Against single-high, Brown has massive usage stats, ranking first in the league in air-yard share (51.2%) and first-read share (45.1%), second in target share (34.7%), and third in yards per route run (3.87). Huge bounce back spot for the Eagles’ #1 here.
Michael Pittman Jr. - $12,030
Pittman has been extremely consistent this season, with very few bust games on his resume, with only one score below 10 all season. Over the past 6 weeks, Pittman has averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game, and is coming off his best game of the season, scoring 23.7 points last week against the Buccaneers. The Titans are another secondary that can be scored on, so expect Gardner Minshew to once again heavily target Pittman in this game. Pittman’s numbers with Minshew under centre make for impressive reading, with Pittman garnering a 28.5% target share, 34.1% air-yard share, 37% first-read share, and 2.22 yards per route run. A solid option that, with a touchdown, can get you mid-level WR1 points this week.
Tight Ends
David Njoku - $7,990
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the Browns’ quarterback situation week to week this season, it hasn’t prevented Njoku from being as consistent as it gets at the TE position. Over the past 6 weeks, Njoku has scores between 10.4 and 17.7, averaging 12.8 points per game. He has high usage in the place that matters most, the redzone, garnering a massive 12 redzone targets over the past 6 weeks, turning that into two touchdowns. This week, he gets a Rams defence that has allowed the second-highest yards per reception, and eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth - $6,040
MUUUUUUUUUUTTTHHH!!! The crowd favourite in Pittsburgh came back with a bang last week, grabbing 9 receptions for 120 yards, on his way to 24 fantasy points. Despite it only being a one-game sample size, I’ve got to believe this uptick in usage is squarely down to a new offensive play caller, after the Steelers sacked offensive coordinator Matt Canada prior to week 12. Surely Head Coach Mike Tomlin saw the success Kenny Pickett had last week throwing over the middle and should once again target Freiermuth heavily. It also helps that Kyzir White will miss the game for the Cardinals this week, who would have been defending the middle of the field for the Cardinals.
D/ST
New York Jets - $6,160
This game is pretty much do-or-die for the Jets, as their season hangs by the proverbial thread after losing 4-straight games. With the prospect of a return around Christmas time of Aaron Rodgers, the Jets need to win if they’re going to entice their QB into risking further injury, and the only way they can win is with their defence. Despite being just 4-7, the Jets D/ST units ranks 4th in this slate in points per game, and this week get a Falcons offense that has struggled to move the ball all season. The Jets rank 9th in the league in takeaways, whilst the Falcons rank 11th in turnovers, despite being a very run-heavy offense. Look for the Jets’ D to leave it all out on the field this week at home.
Indianapolis Colts - $5,850
The Colts’ D/ST units have been the best in the league over the past 3 weeks, averaging a whopping 17.7 points per game in that span. They’re doing it with sacks (15) and interceptions (6), and whilst the Titans don’t give away too many turnovers, they are getting sacked frequently, with their QBs sacked 36 times this season, the 5th most in the league. Like last week, this is a big-time play on the form of these units, who should terrorise a rookie quarterback playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL right now.
Draftstars Suggested Lineup
