The final two games of the NFL Divisional Round take place on Monday morning, with the Lions hosting the Buccaneers to kick things off, in a replay of the week 6 clash between these teams. Then, in the main event for the weekend, the Kansas City Chiefs head to Buffalo to take on the Bills, in what will be Patrick Mahomes’ first career road playoff start. Should be a great day of football.
Draftstars has a $8,000 contest, with a $876 first prize. There are plenty of other contests for everyone to get involved. A slight change to the format this week with just the two games. At this point, everyone knows who the studs are, so we will try and give you a value selection for each position, and a player to avoid for each position. Let’s get it!
NFL 2023-24 Daily Fantasy Tips: Divisional Round
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff - $14,620 (Value)
Despite playing in the Super Bowl for the Rams back in 2019, Jared Goff is undoubtedly in career best form, as he has led the Detroit Lions to their first NFC North Championship, and first playoff win since 1991. Goff has been consistent for DFS owners this season, despite having a relatively low ceiling, with a high score of 31, and a low of 8.4. In the meeting with the Bucs earlier this season, Goff threw for an impressive 353 yards and two touchdowns, on his way to a solid score of 25.42. Whilst most will be looking to both Allen and Mahomes as their QB in this slate, Goff looks to be a solid point of difference that could prove to be a nice saving of funds to deploy elsewhere.
Patrick Mahomes - $16,330 (Avoid)
That feels weird to write, but Mahomes just hasn’t been great in DFS this season. Now, most of that is down to the fact his receivers have dropped passes at an alarming rate, and tight end Travis Kelce’s productivity has fallen off a cliff, but there is a big enough sample size now to stop me from picking Mahomes in my DFS squads. Given his otherworldly talent, the floor is always high with Mahomes (two scores below 15 all season), however his ceiling has been compromised, with just one score of 30+. If you want to spend premium dollars on a QB in this slate, I suggest Josh Allen, who’s receivers aren’t letting him down, and can get it done on the ground.
Running Backs
James Cook - $13,200 (Value)
Whilst Cook has been very poor of late, this could be the week we see a bounce back from the 2nd year running back. Cook and the Bills took on the Chiefs in week 14, and Cook was sensational, rushing for 58 yards and hauling in 5 receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown. With the Chiefs’ passing defence being one of the best in the league, expect Josh Allen to once again use Cook out of the backfield quite a lot. If he can also manage to break off one or two big runs, this could be another great score for the flashy Bills running back.
Rachaad White - $13,230 (Avoid)
The Bucs have been using White less and less lately in the passing game, and given his lack of explosiveness rushing the football, his scores have plummeted. For a good portion of the middle to latter part of the season, you could pencil in White for a score of 15-20 based purely off volume. Another reason I don’t like White in this slate is that I believe the Bucs will be chasing in this game, meaning Baker Mayfield will be taking more shots down the field, and doing less of the dump offs to White. If you want to spend up on a premium running back here, White is not your guy. I’d prefer to shell out an extra $1,600 for Pacheco, who is an absolute beast.
Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin - $11,080 (Value)
I like a few of the cheaper options in this slate as ‘rocks and diamonds’ type selections, but I’ll save the value spot for Godwin, who has a really solid floor of late, but is also capable of a breakout performance. Over the past six games, Godwin has averaged 77 yards per game, whilst also chipping in with two touchdowns. In the game earlier in the season, Godwin managed 6 receptions for 77 yards, which is a stat line I can see happening again here, as the Bucs chase the game. Obviously, a score will be needed to make Godwin turn from a good selection into a great one, but I love the floor and upside here for a guy who is close to $8,000 cheaper than the most expensive wide receiver in this slate.
Stefon Diggs - $14,220 (Avoid)
Diggs has been a straight out fade for months, and despite him showing a little life in the past two weeks, I’m fading him again here against the Chiefs. Since being a dominant WR1 throughout the first half of this season, Diggs’ form has cratered, averaging just 10 points per game over his past nine matchups. Crucially, he has only one touchdown in that time, as Josh Allen has looked to his tight ends, or his legs, to get the Bills into the endzone. In the week 14 matchup with the Chiefs, Diggs only managed 4 receptions on 11 targets for 24 yards, for a score of 6.4. He will be matched up against L’Jarius Sneed, who is one of the best corners in the league.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta - $12,400 (Value)
LaPorta has firmly proven himself as a top 3 tight end in the league in his rookie season, an amazing accomplishment for the second round pick out of Iowa. Whilst he hasn’t had a mountain of work the last few weeks, he’s still managed touchdowns in each of the last two games, which always helps in DFS. This week, LaPorta gets a Bucs’ defence that has been lit up by opposing tight ends all season, with LaPorta being one of those tight ends. Whilst LaPorta didn’t have a huge game in week 6, I expect him to be used far more here.
Travis Kelce (Avoid)
Could this be Kelce’s final career game for the Chiefs? With brother Jason already announcing his retirement, and rumours swirling over the Chiefs’ tight end preparing to propose to Taylor Swift, there’s a chance Travis retires at the end of this season. If that’s the case, given the Chiefs are underdogs here, this could be the last time we see Mahomes to Kelce. Kelce has fallen off a cliff this season in terms of his productivity, and his on-field play. It’s not like Mahomes hasn’t targeted Kelce, as he’s averaged over 8 targets per game this season. But, with the countless drops and just 5 touchdowns all season (only 1 since week 6), Kelce is not the player he once was, and can be avoided in this slate.
D/ST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $5,250
The Bucs are the cheapest D/ST unit in this slate, and whilst the Chiefs are around the same price, I’m just not sure I can see the Chiefs completely shutting down the Bills offense. Now, there’s a chance that the Bucs and their blitzing defence can pressure Goff enough here to cause turnovers. The Bucs also have one of the best run defences in the league, meaning they should be able to shut down this amazing Lions rushing offense. If they can, and if Goff needs to chase whilst under pressure, this Bucs defence can cause turnovers, as shown by their six turnovers over their last four games.
Detroit Lions - $5,860
The Lions defence has struggled all season, and whilst they could easily shut down the Bucs offense and Baker Mayfield in front of a raucous home crowd, I can’t select them here as the second most expensive team in the slate. With only one score of 10+ since the midway point of the season, the Lions have relied more on the bend-don’t-break defence towards the backend of this season. Their defence has been creating turnovers of late (seven in past four games), put are still conceding 20+ points in each of those games. If they can’t turn the ball over, a sub-5 point score is on the cards here.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
